After months of stalemate between Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany), and the consequences Iran faced as a result of it, talks on the Iranian nuclear issue resumed for two days in Kazakhstan. The two-day sessions ended last Wednesday with a specific agreement for further meetings in March and April. Both sides presented proposals in order to reach a compromise and to put an end to the nuclear deadlock. But at the end of the two-day meeting, neither side revealed the exact details of their proposals. Speaking with a senior Iranian diplomat off-the-record, I mentioned that the six powers had dropped their demand that Iran shut down its enrichment plant at Fordo. In response, the Iranian diplomat laughed and said: “The US dropped its demand thanks to the change in US secretary of state. Secretary John Kerry likes to get along, whereas Hillary Clinton was full of hatred!” It looks like the six also agreed to Iran's right to enrich uranium in small grades (three per cent), but firmly demanding that Iran suspend the accumulation of 20 per cent high grade enriched uranium — an amount which can be converted to bomb grade. Any agreement, or as the diplomats referred to it, any “positive development” and “constructive dialogue”, cannot be guaranteed unless Iran's supreme guide, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, endorses it. The new proposal will now go to Khamenei, raising doubts among Western diplomats, who recall Khamenei rejecting previous offers and thereby stalling negotiations. The two sides agreed that technical experts would meet 18 and 19 March in Istanbul. If these technical meetings go well, the officials will have another set of talks in Kazakhstan in April after Iran's national holidays for the New Year, nowrouz. What remains unclear is Iran's proposal to the six powers — a proposal that chief negotiator and EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton regards as “positive”. Said Jalili, the chief Iranian negotiator, called the proposal offered by the six powers in Kazakhstan, “more realistic and closer to the Iranian position”. Perhaps what Jalili is referring to is a partial lifting of sanctions if Iran stops enriching uranium to a high grade. But Iran's sudden willingness to enter meaningful negotiations may have underlying motives. Improving Iran's economy amid increasing public dissatisfaction over the sanctions has become a high priority for officials in advance of elections. The sanctions have effectively pressured the Iranian government to negotiate and get the Khamenei's approval as well. But is Khamenei ready to take the important step and let Jalili reach a deal? In recent days, Ayatollah Khamenei changed his tone when addressing Western nations. “If we wanted to make a nuclear bomb, we wouldn't be afraid of saying it,” he explained. He continued that the Western countries' main aim is to weaken Iran and break down its people because they have resisted Western dominance. But Iranian officials' willingness to reach an agreement quickly shows their urgent need to make progress to boost the economy. Their fear is that the angry, hungry and frustrated people will take the opportunity during the election to form street demonstrations against the system. Also there is little hidden thought behind choosing Kazakhstan to host this set of talks. Kazakhstan became the fourth nuclear power after the US, Russia and Ukraine when the Soviet Union collapsed. The newborn Republic of Kazakhstan found itself with over 10,100 nuclear warheads. In 1949 the Soviet Union conducted its first nuclear test in Kazakhstan in an area believed to be uninhabited. In total, the 456 nuclear tests conducted in Kazakhstan have left 200,000 people sick from radiation, born with genetic disorders, or suffering cancers. At the demand of the Kazakh people 20 years ago, Kazakhstan decided to become a nuclear free nation. Nuclear warheads were sent back to Russia and nuclear sites were cleaned up with the help of the Unites States. Kazakhstan signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty ending its history as a nuclear power. In choosing Kazakhstan as the venue for continued negotiations with Iran, is a message being sent to Iran and the world?
