According to figures released by the Ministry of Health, the number of coronavirus cases in Egypt increased by 1120 in eight days to reach 2,190 by 13 April. Government officials nonetheless continued to issue reassuring statements. Mohamed Al-Amari, chairman of parliament's Health Committee, told Al-Ahram Weekly that “while it took 51 days to report more than 1,000 coronavirus it took only eight days to reach more than 2,000 cases.” “This means the virus is spreading faster, with reported cases in the eighth week ranging between 100 and 120 a day,” said Al-Amari. “This increase was expected. The World Health Organisation [WHO] and Ministry of Health officials long anticipated that the seventh and eighth weeks would see the highest number of infections. “The Ministry of Health and the government now need to keep the numbers steady and push the curve of the infection down,” said Al-Amari. In a public statement on 11 April, Minister of Health Hala Zayed said 88 per cent of coronavirus patients in Egypt present “simple symptoms”. “We also have 10 per cent with moderate to advanced symptoms. Only two per cent can be described as severe cases,” said Zayed. “Worldwide, Egypt remains in the low rates of infection category.” Zayed said the number of doctors infected with coronavirus in Egypt is also low compared to many other countries. “In some countries infection among doctors stands as high as 25 per cent,” said Zayed. Zayed revealed a committee was formed on 11 April, charged with stemming coronavirus infections among medical staff in public and private hospitals. “It will make sure strict anti-infection measures are in force, that medications are available, and that there will not be any infiltration of the virus into hospitals,” said Zayed. Ministry of Health Spokesperson Khaled Megahed said in a TV interview on 11 April that the course of coronavirus infections in Egypt looks similar to Japan. “There is the China scenario and the Japan scenario, and so far we seem closer to the Japan scenario,” said Megahed. “Indeed, compared to Japan, we have fewer infections. Japan had reported more than 7,000 coronavirus cases by 11 April (with infections ranging between 400 and 500 per day), and a death toll of just five. “I hope that the number of coronavirus cases will slow by May or June, and the curve of infections will go down and then disappear,” said Megahed. Al-Amari noted that while the number of infections increased slightly in the eighth week, the death toll rose from 78 by 5 April to 159 by 12 April. “It took almost two months to report 85 deaths and just one week to report 81 more,” said Al-Amari. “This may have been expected, though it could suggest more stringent measures should be taken to contain the tide.” Megahed stressed that “most, if not all, of the patients who have died had underlying health conditions.” “Coronavirus is most serious for those with chronic conditions, particularly high blood pressure, diabetes and heart and kidney failure.” What is most significant about the eighth week, argued Megahed, is the number of patients, 488, who fully recovered and were released from hospital. “This is a very positive development. While the number of reported coronavirus cases increased in the eighth week, the number of patients recovering is also rapidly increasing.” John Jabbour, WHO representative in Egypt, also said on Monday that all the patients who died from coronavirus in Egypt had underlying health problems and some died before they reached hospital. According to Jabbour, WHO is looking into the reasons behind the “high rate” of deaths in Egypt, which stands at 7.6 per cent. “Around 30 per cent of Covid 19 patients died before being sent to quarantine hospitals or receiving medical treatment.” About 85 per cent of the patients have recovered without receiving medical treatment as they had “very mild” symptoms. “Egypt took very serious anti-coronavirus measures, using rapid response teams and effective surveillance systems to track infections and isolating citizens from other countries,” said Jabbour. “While coronavirus infections differ from one country to another, the basic rule is that the virus mainly targets people, particularly older people, suffering from chronic illnesses,” said Jabbour. Jabbour said he could not give a date for when the virus will disappear in Egypt. “All we can say is that the country should continue implementing stringent measures to contain the virus,” said Jabbour. “And we are closely coordinating with the government to review measures taken to stem the rate of deaths.” Minister of Information Osama Heikal said in a TV interview on 12 April that the coronavirus in Egypt could subside in June if Egyptians complied with precautionary measures, especially during the holy month of Ramadan. Ramadan, which is often marked by family gatherings, is expected to start on 23 April. Egypt will also celebrate the Sham Al-Nessim holiday and orthodox Easter on Sunday and Monday. The unfolding of the crisis during Ramadan is “worrying”, but “if citizens show commitment, coronavirus in Egypt will subside in June,” Heikal said. Heikal insisted Egypt's healthcare system is capable of containing a gradual rise in cases. What would be problematic, he said, is a sudden spike in the number of cases. “A government emergency committee is closely monitoring the situation and citizens' behaviour during the crisis,” he added. On 13 April Egypt ranked 53 among 215 countries with the pandemic. Egypt ranked fifth among 22 Arab countries in terms of infections, trailing Saudi Arabia (4,934), the United Arab Emirates (4,521), Qatar (3,231) and Algeria (1,983). Egypt, however, is second only to Algeria in terms of the number of fatalities. Algeria has recorded 313 deaths and Egypt 146. The death toll in Saudi Arabia is now increasing by around five each day. Morocco is facing a surge in infections for the second week, and has recorded 1,763 cases and 126 deaths. Iraq also continues to see a spike. The number of infections increased from 1,000 on 5 April to 1,378 and 78 deaths on 13 April. In comparison with Iran, Turkey and Israel, Egypt is also faring well. Turkey has recorded 61,049 cases and 1,296 deaths. Iran has recorded 73,303 cases and 4,585 deaths, while recorded cases in Israel reached 11,586 and 116 deaths. According to the World Bank, economic growth is expected to slow down to 3.7 per cent from the expected 6 per cent before the pandemic, while Fitch forecasted it will slow down to 4.1 per cent. Both however agreed however that Egypt's figures fare best compared to other Arab countries.
*A version of this article appears in print in the 16 April, 2020 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
