PARIS - Behind on points, conservative French President Nicolas Sarkozy's last best hopes of re-election are landing a knockout punch in the sole television debate or an eleventh-hour alliance with a popular centrist. No president in French history has come back to win after trailing as far behind his opponent in the opinion polls as Sarkozy does now to Socialist challenger Francois Hollande, political scientist Dominique Reynie said. But veteran analysts are not writing him off just yet. "It's hard to see what could reverse the trend, but there are a few elements," said Pascal Perrineau, director of the Centre for the Study of French Political Life (CEVIPOF) at the Sciences-Po school in Paris, citing lingering doubts among voters about whether Hollande has the stature and the national security credentials to be president. Surveys show the conservative head of state is battling deep personal unpopularity on top of the handicaps of incumbency in an economic crisis that has seen off the leaders of 14 of the European Union's 27 countries in the last three years. "This is at least as much a referendum on Nicolas Sarkozy as a vote in confidence in Francois Hollande," said Reynie, director of the Foundation for Political Innovation. Yet Sarkozy is a formidable debater, and he is convinced that once he and Hollande are alone in the ring, he will be able to expose his rival's lack of government experience and fiscal credibility in a live clash a few days before the May 6 runoff. "I'm so excited about the surprise you're going to get. You can't imagine," Sarkozy taunted reporters on a visit to Britanny on Tuesday when asked if he still believed he could win. Among possible surprises he could spring in the final days are diplomatic initiatives on the Middle East, Africa or Europe, a move to cut petrol prices, a big order for a French industrial champion, or saving more factories from closure. France is hosting an international foreign ministers' conference on the conflict in Syria on Thursday, featuring U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. He got the day off to an early start with calls for the establishment of humanitarian corridors to protect the Syrian opposition. A fuel initiative seems possible after ministers confirmed that France has held talks with the United States and Britain on a possible coordinated release of strategic oil reserves to counter speculation due to tensions over Iran. But prices have already begun to fall, making that less likely. A major contract for Airbus aircraft, made by French-based EADS, or for Dassault Aviation's Rafale fighters would be a timely feather in Sarkozy's cap, but it is India and the United Arab Emirates are both negotiating on the possible purchase of the Rafale, which France has never managed to export, despite years of intense diplomatic efforts. A reignition of the euro zone debt crisis, already smouldering in Spain, could help Sarkozy convince voters to stick with an experienced leader rather than risking the untried Hollande. It might also give rise to a last-minute summit with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, his closest European partner, who has kept her distance since throwing her support behind Sarkozy just before he launched his campaign in mid-February. But it could also undermine the president's assurances that the worst of the crisis is over and that he and Merkel have "saved the euro". And officials in Sarkozy's UMP party say Merkel is no guaranteed vote-winner in France. In politics, events can always intervene, as they did when an Islamist gunman shot dead seven people in the Toulouse region last month. That put Sarkozy in the limelight as a hands-on leader in charge of the hunt for the killer, and a consoling head of state embodying national unity at memorial ceremonies.
