A new study by African Narratives, a Pan-African non-profit research organisation, paints a concerning picture of Ethiopia under the leadership of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, arguing that his policies have significantly impacted the nation's security, stability, unity, and overall political, economic, and social conditions. The study, titled "Government Failure and Civil War: The Conflict in Ethiopia's Amhara Region," suggests that Ethiopia is at a critical juncture, with the ongoing conflict in the Amhara region posing a severe threat to national unity and potentially leading to the country's fragmentation. "Ethiopia stands at a critical crossroads, where its future depends on the ability of different factions to overcome their disputes and reach solutions that ensure national unity and stability," the report states, emphasising the need for "wise policies that take into account historical factors and the deep sensitivities associated with Ethiopia's immense ethnic diversity." African Narratives conducts rigorous, evidence-based research, policy analysis, and advocacy to amplify authentic African voices and perspectives. Their work focuses on key areas including economic development, governance, security, and resource management, aiming to influence policy decisions at both continental and global levels. Ethiopia has been grappling with successive internal crises in recent years, primarily centered around managing its ethnic diversity. These challenges are exacerbated by external disputes with neighbouring countries, stemming from what the study describes as the ruling regime in Addis Ababa's pursuit of strengthening its influence and dominance in the region. This has led to concerns among various parties who now view Addis Ababa's policies as aggressive and a threat to regional security and stability. The conflict in the Amhara region, between the Fano militia and the government, is viewed as no less dangerous than the Tigray conflict, and is considered a direct result of Addis Ababa's approach to governing the country. The African Narratives study indicates that Ethiopia has experienced significant political and security instability under Abiy Ahmed's rule, resulting in escalating armed conflicts between the federal government and various militant groups across the country. Until recently, Fano militias fought alongside the federal army in Tigray against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). They were also involved in armed clashes with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and played a role in Ethiopia's conflict with Sudan over the disputed Al-Fashaqa region. However, Fano has now turned against the state, posing a significant challenge to national stability. This shift comes amid Abiy Ahmed's governance strategies, which have deepened Ethiopia's internal crises, exacerbated conflicts both domestically and internationally, and further destabilised an already fragile security landscape. The situation also carries broader implications for regional stability in the Horn of Africa. According to African Narratives, the ongoing rebellion in the Amhara region reflects the complex relationship between this influential ethnic group—Ethiopia's second-largest population—and successive ruling authorities since 1991. Fano re-emerged as a powerful force after the Tigray War, having strengthened its military capabilities and manpower through its participation alongside the central government. A key factor in its growing strength was its absorption of the Amhara Special Forces, which rejected integration into the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF). In April 2023, the Ethiopian federal government decided to dissolve the Amhara Special Forces and integrate them into the federal army, aiming to centralise the military and security apparatus. However, this move was met with strong resistance from the Fano militia, which saw it as an attempt by Abiy Ahmed to weaken the Amhara people. The resulting unrest allowed Fano to gain territorial control while hindering federal army movements, further intensifying the conflict. The study also highlights a lack of trust between Fano and the federal government, despite their alliance in the Tigray War. The sudden withdrawal of federal troops—without consulting regional leaders—left Amhara forces vulnerable to counterattacks by the TPLF, deepening distrust. Amhara groups also feared that the government might force them to return strategic territories such as Welkait and Raya, which they had gained during the war against Tigray. Furthermore, Abiy Ahmed signed the Pretoria peace agreement with the TPLF in November 2022 without any Amhara representation, despite their role in the war. "Their exclusion, reportedly at Abiy's insistence, was a turning point in their relationship, shifting Fano from a key ally to a direct adversary," the study notes. Since assuming office in April 2018, Abiy Ahmed initially positioned himself as a reformist and modernising leader. However, in recent years, his reputation has shifted, with many now perceiving him as an unreliable leader who frequently reneges on international commitments. The study argues that Abiy Ahmed's policies have exacerbated Ethiopia's internal and external crises, leading to political turmoil, rising ethnic conflicts, and economic decline. Despite Abiy Ahmed's early attempts to mitigate ethnic tensions, Ethiopia's ethnic conflicts have only worsened under his leadership. The country's diverse ethnic makeup has posed ongoing governance challenges, and the government's efforts to transition from ethnic federalism to a more centralised system have largely failed, culminating in the 2020 Tigray War and the subsequent conflict with the Amhara. Ethiopia's continuous conflicts under Abiy Ahmed's rule have drained national resources, causing severe economic strain. The wars in Tigray and Amhara have inflicted massive damage on infrastructure, resulted in thousands of casualties, and forced millions into displacement. The Ethiopian economy has suffered significant setbacks, and the ongoing Amhara conflict continues to hinder economic recovery, pushing Ethiopia into a debt crisis. The study also examines Ethiopia's external crises, including the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) dispute with Egypt, the Al-Fashqa border dispute with Sudan, and the Somaliland port agreement. These disputes have strained relations with neighbouring countries and international powers, further isolating Ethiopia on the global stage. Looking ahead, the African Narratives study presents three potential future scenarios for Ethiopia: a military option, a negotiation scenario, and Fano's victory and the overthrow of the regime. The study concludes that the continuation of Abiy Ahmed's current policies could have severe consequences, and that unless the government abandons its confrontational approach and acknowledges Ethiopia's internal complexities, the country will remain trapped in cycles of conflict and instability.
