A couple of weeks ago, the future of the 80th Academy Awards ceremony was still uncertain. The numerous awards ceremonies that normally precede the Oscars, save the Screen Actors Guild Award, were scrapped due to the three-month writer's strike. The strike came to an end when the writers were finally able to cut a deal with producers last week. And so, the Oscars are back on, which means established performers like Daniel Day-Lewis and Julie Christie will get the rare chance to grace the red carpet alongside newcomers such as Ellen Page, Amy Ryan and Marion Cotillard. Honestly, I would've been amused if the Oscars were cancelled for the sheer novelty of it. The cancellation of other award shows did not prevent dozens of film committees and organizations from announcing the winners and giving away trophies. That's why, like almost every year, it is easy to predict the winners of the upcoming thrill-free annual broadcast. For the second year in a row, American cinema has surprisingly produced an impeccable group of films deserving of all the accolades and publicity. This year's Oscars are essentially a race between the Coen Bothers suspenseful crime thriller "No Country for Old Men and Paul Thomas Anderson's epic "There Will Be Blood, each scoring eight nominations including best picture and best direction. Both films are gritty, dark, uncompromising and excessively violent. Along with "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, "American Gangster and "Eastern Promises, this year's nominees are among the bloodiest contenders in recent Oscar history; a clear reflection of the state of global politics. Leading the best picture race is "No Country following its wins at the guilds of producers, directors, actors and writers, among several others. Out of the five best picture nominees, "Atonement is the closest to my heart. The odds of it winning are slim, and frankly, I don't wish for it to win because then it will always be remembered as the customary romantic drama that stole the Oscars from "No Country. The honors showered on "No Country are, without a doubt, well earned. Based on Cormac McCarthy's bestselling novel, the film follows a hunter (Josh Brolin) who stumbles upon a bag of heroin and $2 million in cash. He's got a psychopathic killer (Javier Bardem) on his trail and the Sheriff (Tommy Lee Jones) witnessing the ensuing mayhem. "No Country is lean, mean and nearly perfect - it's also an unlikely best picture contender. If it does walk away with the coveted trophy, "No Country will be the most divisive, unconventional movie to earn the Oscars' highest honor since "Annie Hall in 1978. Despite my fondness for "Atonement, I don't have a precise preference for the best picture winner. Apart from the highly overrated "Juno, "Blood, "No Country, "Atonement and "Michael Clayton are all worthy contenders. Ditto for best direction, another category the Coens are guaranteed to win. My personal vote would go for Anderson's "Blood. "No Country, in essence, is an archetypal Coens film, a return to the noir roots of their earlier work. "Blood, on the other hand, is a major departure for Anderson in style, tone and theme. His versatility is enough of a reason to net him the award. Day-Lewis being named best actor is a lock-in. The previous Oscar winner's towering portrayal of a sadistic, gluttonous oil tycoon in a turn-of-the-century Texas is the heart of Anderson's tale of greed, capitalism and religion. The excellent turn from George Clooney, Viggo Mortensen and Johnny Depp can't hold a candle to Day-Lewis. Veteran British actress Julie Christie is the frontrunner in the best actress race for her delicate and moving performance of an Alzheimer patient in "Away From Her. French actress Marion Cotillard, star of the Edith Piaf biopic, has been gaining momentum in recent weeks, cumulating in her unexpected win at the BAFTA's. Christie's performance is easily the best in a rather weak category that includes the obligatory nod for Cate Blanchett in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age and Laura Linney's ok performance in "The Savages. The buzz is stronger for Blanchett's second nomination for her role as one of the many incarnations of Bob Dylan in "I'm Not There. The award for the best supporting actress is up for grabs though and I wouldn't be surprised if Tilda Swinton ("Michael Clayton ) or Ruby Lee ("American Gangster ) went home with the prize. "No Country's Bardem is a safe bet for best supporting actor. Bardem's chillingly silent Chigurh might be the most intimidating onscreen villain since Hannibal Lecter. It's doubtful that Hal Holbrook ("Into the Wild ) or Casey Affleck ("Assassination of Jesse James ) would pull off an upset. Stripper-turned-blogger- turned-scriptwriter Diablo Cody is another shoe-in for best original screenplay for "Juno. The indie blockbuster - which grossed more than $125 million in the US - is charming, funny and heartwarming. But it's not the great picture Roger Ebert has hailed it to be and the film contains some key dramatic inconsistencies that are hard to swallow. Pixar's "Ratatouille is the better film, but it doesn't stand a chance. After all, no animated movie has ever won a script award before. As for the best adapted screenplay, "No Country, again, is a sure winner. The race is wide open for the best documentary feature. Three of the five nominees - "Taxi to the Dark Side, "Operation Homecoming, and "No End in Sight - deal directly with America's war on terror and the war in Iraq, while the schmaltzy, manipulative "War Dance chronicles the attempt of three children in displacement camps of Northern Uganda to compete in a national music festival. While Michael Moore's smash "Sicko about the American healthcare system is the most high profile of the bunch, the Academy might be reluctant to grant Moore a second Oscar. "No End in Sight could walk away with the prize. My pick would be "Taxi, Alex Gibney's harrowing exposé about the torture methods the US administration adopted in Afghanistan and Iraq. The film's strength doesn't lie only in its even-handedness, but also in how Gibney refuses to justify the administration s interrogation tactics or blame the usual suspects. The academy's choice of films for the Best Foreign Language Film of the Year award is quite baffling. For some inexplicable reason, members of the academy favored a number of second-rate, formulaic pictures over acknowledged masterpieces like "4 Months, 3 Weeks & 2 Days, Ang Lee's "Lust Caution, "Persepolis and "Edge of Heaven. The uninspired group is led by "The Counterfeiters, another Holocaust drama best suited for TV film of the week award. Polish director Andrzej Wajda's "Katyn is a sub-par work from a great filmmaker, and despite Russian director Nikita Mikhalkov's audacity in tackling Russia's racism against Chechenians in "12, it remains difficult to digest the fact that it's essentially a remake of Sydney Lumet's classic "12 Angry Men. I would've loved for "Into the Wild, "Jesse James and "I'm Not There to have received more nominations. "4 Months' Anamaria Marinca should've been nominated for best actress and Gordon Pinsent's touching, low-key performance in "Away From Her demanded a best actor nomination. Some of the best films of last year didn't even come close to scoring a nomination this year. The offbeat "No Country and "Blood will give this year's Oscars an edge over previous inconsequential ceremonies. The fact of the matter is that the Cannes Film Festival remains the Mount Olympus - as Tarantino described it last year - of great cinema; a peak still too high for the Oscars to reach. Catch the 80th Academy Awards ceremony Monday morning live on the Dubai One channel. The ceremony will be hosted by The Daily Show presenter Jon Stewart.
