JP Morgan expects the global refined copper deficit to widen to 160,000 metric tons in 2026, with prices averaging $11,000 per metric ton next year, the bank said in a note on Friday. Following US President Donald Trump's order for a national security probe into potential tariffs on copper imports, JP Morgan anticipates a 10 per cent tariff by late the third quarter of 2025, with a significant risk of a 25 per cent rate. The bank warned that stockpiling in the US ahead of tariffs could tighten global supplies, pushing copper prices to $10,400 per metric ton in the second half of 2025. China's copper demand growth is expected to slow from 4 per cent in 2023 to 2.5 per cent this year, posing a key downside risk to market tightening, while global demand growth is projected to ease from 3.2 per cent in 2024 to 2.9 per cent in 2025. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global refined copper deficit of 22,000 metric tons in December, down from 124,000 metric tons in November. Meanwhile, Citi expects a 25 per cent copper tariff to be implemented by the fourth quarter of 2025. London copper prices rose on Monday, supported by a weaker dollar and improved Chinese manufacturing activity. Attribution: Reuters Subediting: Y.Yasser
