It used to be good for thrills and spills, but the Arab scene is no longer even laughable, writes Amin Howeidi* The Arab political scene has turned into something akin to an amusement park, a place where people queue up for a fun ride, or just to look around. Some visitors are received with open arms. Others, such as President Bush, had better keep their heads down just in case we have any rotten eggs left. In Lebanon, a curious game is afoot. Some call it numerical democracy, but it is not exactly that. Numerical democracy is when those who win most of the votes run the country. But in Lebanon's case, you have to distribute top posts according to an intricate ethnic and factional formula, one created years ago. What makes things even more confusing is when some of the country's factions have a military wing and use it to twist the government's arm. Others have international connections and may be doing the bidding of external forces. So whom are we exactly trying to please here? You'd think that one plus one is two, but this is no longer the case, at least not in Lebanon. One plus one is three, or perhaps zero. It all depends on whom you talk to. If you insist that one plus one is two, get the hell out of Lebanon. This is a country that has lived in a political vacuum for months while trying to get the math right. The secretary-general of the Arab League went to Lebanon to talk sense into rival groups, but his straight talking got him nowhere. So he changed his tack and started shuttling back and forth, like Kissinger used to do back in the 1970s. Arriving in Damascus, the secretary-general was told firmly by the Syrians that one plus one is zero. He hasn't given up yet. Lebanon needs a president willing to work with a broad-based government. Everyone agrees that the army commander would be a good choice, but they cannot put him in office without a constitutional amendment. And the country is just too dysfunctional to get that amendment through. So the Baabda Palace remains closed until further notice. Lebanon may be without a head, but Palestine has two. President Abbas may have dismissed Ismail Haniyeh, but Hamas is not taking it lying down. Palestine now has a government that doesn't recognise Israel, endorse the Arab initiative, or make friends and a president who bends over backwards to do all the above. Israel tried almost every war crime in the book to get the Palestinians to kick out Hamas. When this didn't work out, it pushed them into Egypt's lap to see what happens next. The US knows what Israel is doing. It knows that the Israelis want to get the Palestinians out of Gaza and into Sinai, or at least pass on its troubles to Egypt. Everyone knows that, even the Europeans, although the latter don't really seem to care. The Arabs know it too, but they cannot do much. Actually they can, but why bother? Many have pleaded with Israel to end the blockade and change the regulations on the border crossing. It refused to listen, and it is still hoping to empty Gaza of its inhabitants. At one point, Egypt wanted to get more border guards in Sinai, so as to control the smuggling of men and weapons, but Israel refused. Egypt sees itself like the Rock of Gibraltar, but it had a couple of bad surprises of late. First the events in Sinai sent ripples across our calm waters; then more rocks were thrown into the turbulence. All of a sudden, the European Union had the temerity to challenge our human rights record. Then one of our own agencies, the Central Accounting Agency, challenged the government's economic performance. Dirty linen instead of white wash, the government didn't like this one bit. A great show has been playing for years in this region. It is called Arab national security -- not totally credible, but utterly hilarious. And yet, no one seems interested in it anymore, especially the public. What happened? Where is your sense of humour? * The writer is former defence minister and chief of General Intelligence.
