What's behind the sudden flurry of presidential activities, asks Dina Ezzat Speculation is running high as to the next move by President Hosni Mubarak. Within the quarters of the ruling National Democratic Party, Mubarak's own party, the camp of political opposition, the offices of senior officials, diplomatic quarters, the media and even on the street the question is: will Mubarak remain president beyond the end of his term in October next year? The answer to this question according to some NDP seniors is "yes, of course". Others will say, "yes, most probably". According to one medium-level NDP member, "What we know until this moment is that Mubarak -- Mubarak the father -- will be running for the next presidential elections" scheduled for autumn 2011. "At least this is what [Safwat] El-Sherif [the NDP's secretary-general and Mubarak's long time confidante] says to everyone who asks." According to this and other members of the ruling party the chances of the younger son of the president, Gamal Mubarak and NDP assistant secretary-general, becoming president are not very high but they are not completely ruled out. "Those who support him say Mubarak is their leader and will remain so until the last day of his life -- unless he decides otherwise. However, nobody is saying that Gamal is not an option. And this is not just because nobody within the party would want to be quoted as saying so but also because nobody can really exclude Gamal's chances," said another medium-level NDP member. This assessment seems to be shared within the opposition camp. "Clearly he is picking up even if he remains rather weak. He is certainly looking better," said one in the immediate circle of Mohamed El-Baradei, the new prominent opposition figure. When President Mubarak underwent gall bladder surgery in Germany in March this year speculation was rife about his health and his presidency. In the immediate weeks following his return, Mubarak took on a much lighter schedule, thus giving rise to more speculation about his physical well-being and his ability to continue as head of state -- and, some feared, his ability to enter his sixth presidency. Today, the image seems to have somewhat turned around. During the past few weeks Mubarak has been picking up. In a little over a month he has hosted rounds of talks on Middle East peace, has gone on European tours to discuss regional affairs and bilateral relations, went to the US for a three-day visit to join US President Barack Obama and Middle East counterparts in an attempt to re-launch the Middle East peace process and held a sequence of meetings with his aides. The president got personally and repeatedly involved in managing hot home front issues including the feud over state land, the soaring prices of basic commodities and matters of unchecked tension between Muslims and Christians. This week Mubarak attended a commemoration of the 1973 War in Ismailia, held talks with Arab and foreign dignitaries and held meetings with the governors' council. "The meeting addressed issues of national priority now and in the future," said presidential spokesman Suleiman Awad following a five- hour meeting that Mubarak held with the governors' council on Sunday. As in his statements after a meeting that Mubarak held with the cabinet on 30 August, Awad stressed that Mubarak asked the officials concerned to fully implement the electoral commitments that the president made during his campaign ahead of the 2005 elections. "Mubarak asked the governors to make sure that full implementation is completed within a year," Awad said. On Saturday, as in other statements that he has made during the past eight weeks, Awad stressed Mubarak's commitment to follow up with his aides on a wide range of issues, from the administration of upcoming parliamentary elections "that he expects to be clean and transparent" to the upgrade of the healthcare and social security systems. Awad's typically carefully worded statements gave no commitment on what Mubarak's next move regarding the presidency will be but they certainly include considerable future tense references -- some quite long-term in nature. According to some Cairo-based Western diplomats, Mubarak is also using future tense references in his talks with visitors. "He mentioned something about working to keep the peace process afloat for the next two years. This was said in a really casual and quite spontaneous way. It seems that he is not thinking of retiring," said one Western diplomat who read the notes of a recent meeting between President Mubarak and a visiting foreign official recently. The very heavy involvement of President Mubarak in the attempt to re-activate peace talks between the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli government, at a time when it is clear that these talks are not going anywhere, is read in many quarters in and out of Egypt as a clear sign that Mubarak is planning to solicit support for his regime. According to Manar El-Shorbagui, associate professor of political science at the American University in Cairo, it is only too clear that the objectives behind the Obama attempt to re- launch the Middle East peace talks, with very little to make it work, is driven only by American domestic politics that have to do with the low ratings of the US president and his tense relationship with AIPAC, a highly influential part of the Jewish lobby in the US, ahead of crucial mid-term elections. El-Shorbagui says these facts must have been very clear to Egyptian decision- makers who nonetheless decided to support the Obama initiative. "The Americans wanted [to launch these talks] and Cairo did not want to let them down," she said. The reason for the Egyptian decision that El-Shorbagui sees as incompatible with Egyptian foreign policy interests is obvious. "It is very clear that good relations with the Obama administration is a top priority for the Egyptian government," she said. El-Shorbagui declines to immediately associate herself with the argument suggesting that Mubarak is investing high political capital in a doomed process in order to solicit Washington's support for the durability of the regime. The Egyptian regime, she argues, is not worried about seeing the US intervening to remove it and there is no sign of this to start with. "The US is neither withdrawing its support from the regime nor is it heavily engaging its adversaries," she said. And she adds that US influence on Egyptian politics does not amount to direct interference in the management of the fate of the ruling regime. Indeed, she adds, whether it is Mubarak himself who will run, or a designated aide or Gamal Mubarak "these are alternatives that carry no threat to US interests." According to an informed official source, "if you insist that he is doing this to send a message to anyone" it is basically public opinion in Egypt. For Mubarak, he said, it is very important that "the people feel that the president is well and that he is running the state directly. And this is the simple truth. He is running the state directly." Will he run beyond October 2011? "Yes, if he feels well enough. This is what one feels, at least." During the past few days, senior state officials have been explicitly talking about Mubarak's next presidency. The most direct statement came from Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit who told the London-based daily Al-Hayat that he expects that Mubarak will run for the next presidential elections. "I trust that Mubarak is going to be president for another term," Abul-Gheit said late last week. On Wednesday, Farouk Hosni, the minister of culture, told the independent daily Al-Dostour that he expects Mubarak "to be the next president".
