Analysts are predicting that next month's second annual ruling party conference will not feature radical changes in terms of leadership posts or political reform. Gamal Essam El-Din reports Political observers were taken aback this week by the announcement that the ruling National Democratic Party's (NDP) second annual conference would not feature either a radical shake-up of its leadership posts, or the adoption of serious political reforms aimed at boosting Egypt's democratisation process. According to the official NDP mouthpiece Mayo, the three-day conference (21-23 September) will not feature changes in the memberships of the NDP's political politburo (13 members), the secretariat-general (25 members), or the steering bureau (six members). Citing internal NDP statutes, Mayo said leadership posts were to be decided by elections at the general party congress (which takes place every five years -- the next one being in 2007). This, Mayo added, means that NDP Secretary- General Safwat El-Sherif will maintain his post, despite much recent talk that there was a conflict of interest between the position and El-Sherif's new role as Shura Council chairman. "El-Sherif's roles as chairman of both the Shura Council and Secretary-General of the NDP are not illegal because the NDP holds the majority in the Shura Council," Mayo said. The paper, however, chose not to mention that the real conflict stems from El-Sherif being chairman of the Shura Council-affiliated Political Parties Committee. The opposition has repeatedly complained that the NDP secretary-general heading the political parties committee is a flagrant violation of the constitution, because it makes him both "a judge and an adversary at the same time". The paper's predictions also seem to fly in the face of what Gamal Mubarak, the 41-year-old son of President Hosni Mubarak and chairman of the NDP's influential Policies Committee, said at a news conference three weeks ago. Mubarak indicated that although leadership posts are filled at the general party congress every five years, President Mubarak, in his capacity as NDP chairman, is also empowered to make changes and new appointments between congresses and during annual conferences. "The NDP is a flexible, not static, party," Mubarak had said, inspiring some to guess that the younger Mubarak might be tapped to replace El- Sherif at next month's conference. Informed sources told Al-Ahram Weekly that members of the NDP's old guard, especially El- Sherif and his assistant Kamal El-Shazli, were probably behind the Mayo story, in an attempt to pre-empt any possible orchestration aimed at dismissing them from their influential NDP posts. Both El-Sherif and El-Shazli, in recent interviews with Al-Mussawar magazine and Al-Ahram, have emphasised that next month's conference will not see any shuffling of leadership posts. The Mayo story, if accurate, also means that cabinet ministers who lost their portfolios in last month's cabinet reshuffle will also maintain their membership in both the political politburo and the secretariat-general. These include former prime minister Atef Ebeid, former agriculture minister Youssef Wali, former education minister Hussein Kamel Bahaaeddin, and former youth minister Alieddin Hilal. According to the party's internal statutes, newly appointed Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif, on the other hand, is automatically entitled to be a member of the party's politburo. The party's so-called electoral college system, meanwhile, may be completely overhauled at the September conference. The American-style system, originally aimed at democratising the party's performance, has proved ineffective, with many party members complaining that the system actually led to a proliferation of bribes and kickbacks. Opposition and independent observers predicted the annual conference would not, however, aim to adopt radical political reforms. "What we have heard thus far regarding these reforms is by no means encouraging," said leftist Tagammu Party Secretary-General Hussein Abdel-Razeq. According to Mayo, the conference will focus on amending five political laws, including those governing political parties, the exercise of political rights, the People's Assembly, and professional syndicates, as well as a legislative amendment of the penal code to rid it of imprisonment penalties for publication offences. El- Sherif indicated that the political parties law amendment would focus on diversifying the political parties committee, which is entrusted with licensing political parties. El-Sherif suggested that the committee include one opposition MP, an opposition member of the Shura Council, and an independent political analyst. He also wants the licensing or rejection of potential parties to take place using a secret ballot of the committee's eight members. The opposition thinks the only acceptable amendment would involve eliminating this committee altogether. Critics also said the NDP's recent announcement that next year's parliamentary elections would use the individual candidacy system has shattered any hopes of serious political reforms being forged via a national dialogue between the NDP and other political forces.
