Turks are not getting their hopes up for next month's EU membership talks, reports Joanna Wulfsberg from Istanbul As Turkey anxiously awaits the start of membership talks with the European Union on 3 October, many Turks are growing increasingly pessimistic about their outcome, and with good reason. Every time Turkey's bid for EU candidacy takes a few steps forward, it seems to be followed by as many or more steps backwards. By adopting the political criteria outlined at the 1993 Copenhagen European Council, Turkey may have pleased EU bureaucrats. However, ordinary Europeans have proven more difficult to woo. "The first main obstacle for Turkey is European public opinion, especially in France and Germany," says Sabri Sayari, professor of political science at Sabanci University in Istanbul and executive director of the Institute for Turkish Studies in Washington DC. "It's becoming quite clear that in both countries there is strong public opposition." Turkey's EU candidacy was one of the hot issues during Germany's elections on Sunday. Angela Merkel, the Christian Democratic candidate, speaks for many Germans when she advocates nothing more than a "privileged partnership" with Turkey. Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, on the other hand, has been trying to win over ethnic Turks. The French have already had a chance to tell the EU what they think about Turkey's candidacy, albeit indirectly. In a referendum on 29 May, France voted "no" to endorsing the EU constitution. The Netherlands followed suit three days later. Across Europe, including the Netherlands, relations between Muslim and Christian communities have been strained, as the fall out of the November 2004 murder of controversial Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh demonstrated. Religion is not the only thing making Europeans suspicious of Turkey. Other factors include its relative poverty, its population size -- which currently numbers around 70 million, making it second only to Germany -- and its rapid population growth, which will enable it to surpass that of Germany in the next 10 to 15 years. Given the population-based mechanisms of EU decision-making, admitting Turkey to the EU would shift the balance of power dramatically. Nevertheless, the country's youth constitute a potential advantage for Europe, as Sayari points out: "With the European population getting older, there is going to be concern about who is working and paying social security. Turkey can help alleviate that." European stereotypes and demographic realities aside, some of Turkey's obstacles to join the EU have to do with democracy and human rights. On paper at least, Turkey seems to have done an impressive job of meeting the many criteria imposed by the EU. In 2001 and 2002 alone, bans on Kurdish broadcasts and Kurdish-language education were lifted, the death penalty was abolished and stricter anti- torture laws were passed. But as American political scientist Melinda Negron points out, "it's clear that this government is really willing to push through all the laws and amendments. But implementation requires changing the mindset of the people." Incidents such as the beating of non-violent female demonstrators on International Women's Day, 8 March, have led EU officials to question Ankara's commitment to implementing human rights-related legislation. In addition, several long standing conflicts with neighbouring countries and minorities have impeded Turkish progress towards achieving EU membership. Unresolved questions concerning Cyprus, the Kurds and the Armenians have all damaged Ankara's EU aspirations. On 29 July, the Turkish government signed the expanded EU Customs Union, extending the previous agreement to the 10 countries that joined the EU last year. One of these countries is the Republic of Cyprus, which Turkey has refused to recognise officially. Signing the customs union should have nudged Turkey towards a solution for the Cyprus problem. But just after signing the document, the government explicitly declared it did not amount to a recognition of the neighbour Island. Since then, Ankara has also asserted its right to ban Greek Cypriot aircraft and ships from its shores, an apparent violation of the agreement. Since Turkey cannot join the EU unless it recognises all 25 current members, the government appears to have deliberately thrown a spanner into the works. The EU has worked on the wording of a counter-declaration but has so far been unable to reach a consensus. Another public relations problem for the Turkish government is that it has never acknowledged what most Western scholars and many European governments describe as the genocide of its Armenian minority in 1915. Unlike the Cyprus issue, acknowledgement of genocide is not a prerequisite to joining the EU, but French Foreign Minister Michel Bernier has pressed for it to become one. The Turkish government, on the other hand, has limited discussion of the "Armenian question" to such an extent that those Turks who raise questions about it may face charges of "denigrating Turkish identity", as was recently the case with well-known Turkish novelist Orhan Pamuk. The European attitude towards Turkey's minorities is often difficult for Turks to understand or accept. According to Mehmet Okan, an Istanbul waiter, the Europeans take the Kurdish issue and make things worse. "The Kurds are fine when they're here. Then they go to Sweden or Germany and people make a fuss," says Okan. According to Sayari, the Kurdish question is one of the most difficult aspects of EU membership for Turkey. Although the relationship between Turkey and Europe has often been a frustrating one, most Turks are eager to pursue it. But they may not be willing to wait forever. A June 2005 survey conducted by Transatlantic Trends shows that 63 per cent of Turkish citizens feel that joining the EU would be a good thing. In a poll conducted last year by the same organisation, 73 per cent of those queried wanted to join. The average Turkish citizen remembers the previous setbacks in 1987, 1997 and 2002, and is well aware of the difficulties Turkey will face. Even if Turkey is accepted, it will have to wait about 10 years for activating membership. Yucel Kocaoglu, who works at a bank in Istanbul, puts it bluntly: "Nobody in Turkey actually expects to join the EU. We expect to get rejected again, whether it's right away or a few years down the road."
