By Salama A Salama In recent days Iraq has been convulsed by an unprecedented wave of sectarian violence. The entire region held its breath as the spectre of civil war loomed ever larger. The Americans claim that civil war is unlikely but no one is really sure. The Americans are not in full control of things in Iraq, at least not to the extent they would have us believe. The recent flurry of violence in Iraq is evidently related to the ongoing war of nerves between Washington and Tehran. Iran has undeniable influence across the region and its presence can be felt from Syria to Lebanon and from Iraq to Palestine. The Saudi foreign minister recently warned the Council on Foreign Affairs in New York that US policies were pushing Iraq into Iran's arms. Iraq's Shiites have been reasonably accommodating of US influence but there is a limit to how far they are willing to go. Conservative Shiite groups led by the Unified Iraqi Alliance are unlikely to side with Washington against Tehran. Nor is there any clear indication of who was responsible for the destruction of Shiite shrines in Samarra? There are suspects everywhere you look. The culprits could be followers of Zarqawi. Or Baathists. The fact is with death squads and foreign agents free to roam Iraq at will we might never really know. During her recent tour of the region US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice spoke endlessly about Iran. She was seeking Egyptian, Saudi Arabian and Gulf states' support for Washington's policy towards Iran. Arab countries had to state that the nuclear matter should be addressed on a wider scale. The whole region, not just Iran, should be free of nuclear weapons. For the Arabs it makes no sense at all to see Washington so adamant about Iran and so forgetful about Israel. Rice was hoping to isolate Hamas. Arab countries couldn't oblige on that one, either. Punishing the Palestinians for choosing Hamas in free elections, they told Rice, was no way to revive peace efforts in the region. Here again, the Iranian connection is at play. Iran has supplied Hamas with levels of political, moral and material support that make Arab contributions fade into insignificance. In Lebanon Rice lent support to the anti-Syrian coalition which is trying to unseat President Lahoud. But Lahoud cannot be ousted without Hizbullah's approval. The Iranian connection, once again. The Egyptian press gave Rice a hard tone, mostly because she has criticised the slow pace of reform and the decision to postpone municipal elections. Indeed, some journalists were denouncing Rice in harsh terms even before she had arrived in the country. Many accused the US secretary of state of interfering in Egyptian domestic affairs. Yet despite the criticisms she went ahead and met with leaders of civil society and listened to their views on reform. US policy deserves the criticism it is getting, perhaps even more. But let's be frank. Egyptian officials have consistently discussed domestic affairs with representatives of the US administration and members of Congress. US-Egyptian relations are now completely bound up with conditions and concessions. What tempts Washington to continue exerting pressures is the stupid way in which we deny our errors and assume that procrastinating and wavering will pay off in the end. Apparently we are still in the business of convincing the Americans that Islamists will take power should reforms continue. It is because Arab countries are so hapless that the region has become the stage for the American-Iranian stand-off. Iran is calling the shots in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine. The US and Israel will stop short from using force against Tehran. The Russians will help with the uranium enriching issue, and China may lend a hand. And eventually Washington will change its tune when it comes to policy towards Tehran.
