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Unrelenting stalemate
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 06 - 07 - 2006

Internal clashes within Hamas, exacerbated by Syria, only serve to worsen the already existing crisis created by Israel's military operation in Gaza, reports Sami Moubayed
The hunt for Khaled Meshaal has shifted into top gear after Israel accused him of being the mastermind behind the Palestinian resistance and the kidnapping of a 19-year-old Israeli soldier on 25 June. The United States and Israel have blamed Syria for the hostilities, calling on President Bashar Al-Asad to arrest the Hamas leader, whom they say is still living in Damascus.
I met Khaled Meshaal twice in Damascus back in December 2001. Brimming with patriotism and determination, Meshaal was polite, strong, and surprisingly very sympathetic with the late President Yasser Arafat.
At the time, the United States -- in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 -- was accusing Syria of harbouring Palestinian "terrorist" organisations, a reference to Islamic Jihad and Hamas. Syria claimed that the offices on its territory were solely for media purposes, while military operations were managed by hands-on commanders in Palestine, like the late Abdel-Aziz Al-Rantisi, and by spiritual leaders like Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, the founder of Hamas.
Meshaal's role was purely political and limited to public relations operations based in Syria. During my interview with Meshaal, an aide came in and whispered in his ear that a bomber had just blown himself up in Palestine. Meshaal, clearly surprised by the news, switched on Al-Jazeera TV. He knew no more about the military operation than I did, although Hamas claimed responsibility for the attack, much to the surprise of Meshaal. This incident reinforces the argument that Khaled Meshaal was not responsible, at the time, for military operations in Palestine.
The crisis between Meshaal, the United States, Israel, and Syria has now re-emerged in a slightly modified form. Meshaal is still in Syria. He also remains committed to armed resistance -- mirroring the views of his hosts -- although his Hamas comrades inside Palestine have transformed into statesmen after their victory in the January elections. Clearly, a rift has emerged within Hamas.
One side, centered around Meshaal and other exiles (many based in Syria), wants to escalate the conflict with Israel in response to recent atrocities. The other, led by the relatively moderate Prime Minister Ismail Haniyya, who lives inside Palestine, sees matters quite differently.
Prime on Haniyya's agenda is paying wages to the besieged Palestinians, running schools, improving economic conditions, upgrading hospitals and simply running a state. At the top of Meshaal's agenda is liberation. He believes scoring victories in the resistance is easier and more relevant than shouldering the burdens of government.
One day before the kidnapping, a closed meeting took place between President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Haniyya. Observers claimed that this meeting was intended to unite moderate factions in Fatah and Hamas behind both men's leadership, in order to reach a consensus regarding the recognition of Israel.
This infuriated Khaled Meshaal. Nasser Al-Kidwa, Fatah's former foreign minister, remarked that the order of the kidnapping, hours after the meeting, was Meshaal's "clear message about who is in control of Hamas".
The Syrians continue to claim that Khaled Meshaal is not responsible for military affairs in the occupied territories. They have not, however, denied or confirmed his involvement in the capture of the Israeli soldier. The US has called on Damascus to arrest him and to use its considerable influence over Hamas to secure a release of the captive Israeli soldier. In 1999, pressure on Jordan succeeded in getting the late King Hussein to expel Meshaal from Amman, after which he briefly resided in the Gulf before moving to Syria.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert ordered warplanes to fly over the city of Latakia on the Syrian coast on 28 June, to pressurise Syria into cooperating. Syrian airplanes responded by taking to the skies to ward them off.
Meanwhile, war continued in Gaza as the Israeli military knocked down the city's power station and sealed off its borders, leaving its 1.5 million inhabitants in fear, darkness and hunger. Israel also air raided the office of the Minister of Interior along with that of Prime Minister Haniyya, and arrested dozens of Hamas parliamentarians and ministers.
Syria snapped back that no mediation would come forth so long as Israel was carrying out its military operation "Summer Rains" on Gaza. Syrian parliamentarian and former ambassador Sulayman Haddad, who now heads the foreign relations department in the People's Assembly, said that Syria would not budge with Hamas unless the Israelis cease their operations in Gaza.
Arab mediatory efforts have also come into play, and Omar Sulayman, the Egyptian intelligence chief, visited Khaled Meshaal on 30 June to secure a deal. Egypt has proposed that the Palestinians release the captive soldier, and in exchange Israel Palestinian prisoners by the end of 2006. Israel has refused to specify the number of Palestinians it is willing to release or to set a date for the exchange. Palestinians, for their part, proposed that they release the soldier in exchange for 1,000 Palestinians held in Israeli jails.
A question that arises in the Middle East crisis today is whether Khaled Meshaal, and his Syrian hosts, are part of the problem or part of the solution. Israel and the United States claim that they are central to the problem. Regional and international players, on the other hand, believe that the key to moderating Hamas, or at least finding a way to make the military wing obey its political leadership, lies in Damascus.
Only Syria can force radicals like Meshaal to moderate their tone and work with Haniyya towards a settlement with both Mahmoud Abbas and the Israelis. Israel has not, until now, provided any evidence incriminating Meshaal or Syria in the kidnapping of the Israeli soldier. Israel is adding fuel to the fire, however, in order to increase Hamas-Fatah divisions and bring down the Hamas government.
Israeli analysts had predicted, back in early 2006, that the Haniyya cabinet would fall by August 2006. Given the current state of affairs, with Meshaal's stance supported by Syria and Ehud Olmert's desire to prove himself to be just as strong as his predecessor Ariel Sharon, Hamas's days in power may very well be reaching an end.


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