Aaron David Miller is vice president for new initiatives at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars, and has been an adviser to both Republican and Democratic secretaries of state. People in the Arab world feel President Trump just threw the whole region into disarray, and yet he talks about peace. What is the logic? His approach to the peace process is primarily for political reasons. Let's be clear that the peace process was already dead even before the issue of Jerusalem started. Because on the core issues there are huge gaps between the Israelis and the Palestinians and there is no trust. So, the real question for the US administration now is how to find a way to reconstitute any sort of approach in the wake of Jerusalem. It's going to be very hard to do that. Apparently, the Israelis will be encouraged by what he has done but the Palestinians will be demoralised. And as we've seen, the Egyptians were the ones who introduced the anti-settlement draft resolution in the Security Council. They keep asking the administration to redesign its policy.
How do you view the recent vote in the Security Council — 14 against the United States? We can't block a resolution in the General Assembly. Of course, the US did this for political reasons – domestic political reasons. So, they're not nearly as concerned about the international or regional reaction to this. So, I'm not surprised that it was 14 to one.
What should the Palestinians do next? I think Palestinian options are very bad. They can return to an approach that seeks action in an international forum. They can do any number of things. But it's going to be difficult for the Abbas administration. Armed struggle and violence is a dead-end. They pick up the gun in an organised fashion and it will be the end of the US administration's support. So, they're in a box, with very few options.
Can the Palestinians ignore the peace process? In the context of a negotiated settlement it's going to be difficult for them, unless they can find a way to deal directly with the Israelis. That's going to be extremely hard because Netanyahu does not envision the same kind of outcome as Abbas does. They have fundamentally different views of what a two-state solution means, how to resolve Jerusalem, how to resolve refugees, how to resolve security, how to resolve borders. So, no. If there's going to be negotiations, they will need the United States. The question is: On what basis are the Israelis and Palestinians going to negotiate? A US official said peace cannot be imagined without the Western Wall (the Wailing Wall in Jerusalem) being suborned to Israel. What is your comment, even though the US said that final borders should be decided by negotiations? The Clinton Parameters in 2000 basically articulated that position. It's not new. The current parameters also talked about East Jerusalem as the capital of a Palestinian state. So, the statement on the Western Wall became controversial, but there is no doubt and it has been a part of every US administration, and in the event that there is a final status negotiation and it reaches an agreement, the Western Wall will become sovereign and attached to the State of Israel. There's no question about it, but stating it the way they did, without creating a context for Palestinians, they made a bad situation worse.
Trump will send Vice President Mike Pence to the Middle East, although all US allies in the region except Israel oppose his statement on Jerusalem, and the Palestinian president said he is not going to meet Pence. What is the purpose of this trip? What can Pence do? Pence has postponed his trip until mid-January. So, we'll see what the situation it is then. But remember, Christian groups would not see him. The Pope wouldn't see him. The mayor of Bethlehem would not see him. He couldn't visit the Church of the Holy Sepulchre — they wouldn't see him. So, it's not a good time to go. He's going to Israel with peace process objectives. He's going to Egypt, to try to talk with Al-Sisi. He's going to Israel, I think, in some respect to celebrate Trump's decision on Jerusalem as a reflection of deep evangelical commitment. So, for the Trump administration it's not a question of what Pence can do. Pence can do very little because the purpose of his trip is not to engage in the peace process. The Palestinians will not see them and this is not an issue on which he has taken a lead. So, this trip is never about doing serious work on the peace process, even before the Jerusalem decision, and now afterwards it certainly can't be.
Will the US position on Jerusalem impact the influence of Iran in the Middle East and strengthen its allies? Yes, maybe. It's going to play to those groups — the Islamic State, the jihadis, Hamas. Yes. But not in a significant way. The Iranians do not have a significant impact on this process. Hamas has to be extremely careful. The relationship with the Egyptians right now is far more important than the relationship with Hamas. Yes, the Iranians will try to exploit it, but I don't think they can have a consequential effect.
Will the conflict between the White House and the State Department impact the respect of US allies around the world? Yes, because the secretary of state has not been empowered by the president, because there is confusion as to whether when Mr Tillerson speaks he's representing the president or not. This is not a very effective way to conduct foreign policy.
