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Libyan exodus
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 06 - 08 - 2014

The outbreak of violence in some Libyan cities is urging Egyptian workers to flee the country, leaving behind their jobs, homes and even their personal belongings as a result of the escalation in the violence and the Libyan government's inability to control militias particularly in the east of the country.
Clashes between Islamist militias and government forces have led to the deaths of about 200 people over the last two weeks, marking the worst unrest since the ouster of former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi three years ago.
“The militias have checkpoints everywhere and they inspect our belongings in a humiliating way,” Atef Al-Sayed, a construction worker who returned from Libya recently told Al-Ahram Weekly. Egyptians working in Libya come mainly from rural areas and Upper Egypt and the majority of them have not completed the university education.
Al-Sayed added that that he had not felt safe enough to carry his mobile or money with him and that he had had to ask his Libyan boss to drive him to work daily for fear of the violence.
Friends of Al-Sayed in the Libyan city of Misrata had told him over the phone that they could not go out to get food because of the violence in the streets.
The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) estimated the number of Egyptians who worked in Libya before the current crisis between 330,000 to 1.5 million. Due to violence acts following the revolution in 2011 around 147,000 Egyptian migrants returned from Libya. The number of Egyptian expatriates has been decreasing since then, and there is no official figure for the number of Egyptians still in the country.
The total number of Egyptian expatriates is around 10 million, most of them in the Gulf countries.
The Ministry of Manpower and Immigration has asked Egyptian workers returning from Libya to fill in forms with data that can give rise to compensation. They should register the date of their arrival in Egypt and the name of the company or organisation they used to work for in Libya.
Workers can fill in the forms at ministry offices in the governorates or online.
Karima Koryem, a professor of economics at Al-Azhar University in Cairo, said that the return of the workers from Libya would have only a marginally negative impact on the unemployment rate, as the number of returning workers was not high.
Egypt's unemployment rate reached 13.4 per cent in 2013.
Thus far, there has been no estimate of the effect of the return of the workers on remittances but the effect is expected to be meagre as remittances from Libya , according to IOM, hovers around $33 million annually. According to the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), overall remittances increased to $4.6 billion in the first quarter of 2014 from $4.3 billion in the fourth quarter of last year.
The worst impact is likely to be a social one, particularly on families. The government, banks and the Social Fund for Development should look into providing incomes for the returning workers, Koryem said.
Sabri Al-Shabrawi, a professor of management at the American University in Cairo, said that the government should deal with the return of the workers in a positive fashion.
“Egypt has human resources and natural potential that could be used in developing the country. Setting up a national programme for employment is necessary so that these workers can help establish new cities and rebuild slum areas,” he said.
Such a programme, which would upgrade workers' skills, could also help them travel to work in other countries, such as Saudi Arabia and in the Gulf.
Not all the returning workers are likely to want to stay in Egypt.
Al-Sayed said that Egyptian workers in Libya make $1,000 to $1,500 per month. “I hope I can go back to Libya, as I can never make this sum of money in Egypt,” he said.
Egyptian companies with operations in Libya will be suffering as well. Safwan Al-Salmi, former chairman of the Holding Company for Construction told Al-Shorouk newspaper that four mega projects conducted by the company had been suspended four months ago.


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