Foreign wars are taking a backseat in the jockeying for power, writes Hannah Mintz Worsening economic news has pushed concerns about jobs, recession, and mortgage foreclosures to the top of the political agenda in the United States, and politicians from the White House to the campaign trail are scrambling to respond. If the economy trumps foreign policy issues in voters' minds in the upcoming primaries, it is likely to shape the rest of the US political season, all the way to the presidential election itself in November. Before his jaunt to visit holy sites, President George W Bush said an economic stimulus would be the centrepiece of his State of the Union speech on 28 January. But bad economic news quickly piled up, including a rise in unemployment. As Bush made his way to Sharm El-Sheikh on 15 January, news of Mitt Romney's victory in the Michigan primary rolled in, with his focus on the economy as his number one issue. On 18 January, Bush rushed to outline a proposal for an economic stimulus package, including $145 billion in tax relief. In a sign of good will to the Democrats, Bush did not insist that his tax cuts of 2001 and 2003, which are set to expire in 2010, be made permanent. Democratic lawmakers are once again refusing to go after Bush, instead, holding out an olive branch. Democratic Representative Barney Frank pledged to work with the White House. "We must cooperate to enact immediately aggressive measures that respond to the economic downturn,'' Frank said. However, there are no longer any cheerleaders for the lame duck. Even Wall Street is skeptical that Bush's moves will be effective. The proposed package may be "too little, too late", suggests a report released by the investment bank UBS Securities LLC. The report references two similar attempts in 1975 and 2001 to encourage spending through tax rebates, which failed to stem recessions. Despite the whiff of bipartisanship, Republicans and Democrats are staking out their usual opposing positions. Though there seems to be consensus that the final proposal will include tax rebates, it is not clear whether the package will target low-income families. The Bush administration favors a plan that would put up to $800 back in taxpayers' pockets. Democrats, on the other hand, want to put some of the money toward extending unemployment benefits and food stamp programs, which would help the poor. Meanwhile, the Republicans who want Bush's job are getting an earful from voters on pocketbook issues from one end of the country to the other. The Republican primary in Michigan showed that a candidate would be punished for not successfully addressing voters' fiscal concerns. Many believe John McCain, who was coming off a victory in New Hampshire, lost to Romney in Michigan because of his "straight talk". He foolishly told voters that lost jobs "aren't coming back" to the state, allowing Romney to paint his opponent as negative and defeatist. By contrast, Michigan-born Romney portrayed himself as a beacon of hope for a state that has been hit especially hard by job loss. Auto industry closings have contributed to 7.4 per cent unemployment in the state, which is significantly higher than the national rate. Romney vowed to "fight for every job" while making the auto industry competitive again through investment in research and technology. Fifty-five per cent of Michigan primary voters said the economy was their top concern. Only 18 per cent cited the war in Iraq and 14 per cent cited illegal immigration. In the previous primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire less than one third of voters cited the economy their top concern. The Republican primary in South Carolina followed the pattern set by Michigan, with the economy emerging as the key issue. McCain eked out a victory in a state which Romney essentially conceded. Romney instead transferred his efforts to Nevada, where he won 51 per cent of the vote, with the maverick Ron Paul coming a credible second. Since the top Republican candidates each appeal to a different set of core conservative issues-- Romney big on the economy, McCain on US military might, Huckabee on social issues like abortion -- the upcoming contests may be an "early referendum" on what the entire election is going to be about, a well-known political commentator told Al-Ahram Weekly. As the Republicans campaign in Florida, the most populous state so far to host a primary election, Barney Keller told the Weekly, referring to the above, described the race as "in flux because the traditional coalition of conservatives is split between three candidates." In addition, some expect Rudolph Giuliani to make his first serious bid for a victory in Florida. Giuliani, who was mayor of New York on 11 September 2001, has centred his candidacy on anti-terrorism. Florida's concentration of Hispanics is another factor; many have been hit especially hard by predatory lending practices and the ensuing home foreclosure crisis which is behind the overall economy slump. If the economy continues to dominate at the polls, Romney will have an edge over his rivals, just as Bill Clinton did in his wide- open primary race in 1992. A long-time businessman, Romney has tried to distinguish himself as someone experienced in real economic issues. "I've spent my life in the world of business," Romney said. "I know why jobs come and go." Romney has also joined his colleagues in criticising McCain for voting against the Bush tax cuts, which are popular among Republican voters. McCain has suggested cutting spending as a short-term solution. Romney, on the other hand, has proposed a $250 billion stimulus package that far exceeds the one proposed by his party's leader. In the coming weeks, gloomy voters will tell smiling politicians what worries them, and the American presidency will hang in the balance.
