Will Israel's current war in Gaza backfire, asks Anayat Durrani On his popular programme, "The Daily Show" on Comedy Central, Jewish comedian Jon Stewart talked about the situation in Gaza during a 5 January segment called, "Israel Invades Gaza... Missile Tov!" Stewart said Hamas firing rockets into Israel is nothing new and questioned, "Why does Israel feel that they have to react so strongly right now?" Hint: Obama inauguration. "I get it! Israel isn't sure that the new administration is going to grant them carte blanche in the bombing department. So they're getting it in now before the 20 January Hope-and-Change deadline. 'Time's running out!' It's like a civilian carnage Toyota-thon!" Stewart echoed what many Middle East analysts have speculated. "One aspect of Israel's timing of the Gaza offensive is the Israeli desire to change the status quo with Gaza under the known free hand of the waning administration," said Paul Scham of the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC. "Indeed, the administration obligingly refused to call for a ceasefire and is reportedly sending a large shipload of arms to Israel, presumably to replenish its supplies." The Israelis launched their attack on Gaza on 27 December to stop rockets fired by Hamas and others into southern Israel. For about three weeks now, Israeli airstrikes and bombs have killed nearly 1,000 Palestinians with over 4,400 reported wounded. Israeli officials say 13 Israelis, including three civilians, have been killed. Israel continues to ban journalists from entering Gaza despite the fact that aid agencies warn of a humanitarian crisis in Gaza. "It is widely believed that the Israeli occupation hastened to attack Gaza now because they wanted to fully use the opportunity accorded to them by the Bush administration and before Obama takes office, i.e., to deal the Palestinians a devastating blow, just in case the Obama administration launches a diplomatic offensive regarding the Middle East," said Hisham Ahmed of Saint Mary's College of California. "This is to say that Obama is expected to adopt a more engaging policy regarding the Palestinian-Israeli conflict than the unflaggingly failing Bush administration." During the presidential campaign, President-elect Barack Obama said he planned to deal with the Palestinian-Israeli conflict immediately when he takes office. Obama said on Sunday the deaths of civilians in the fighting were "heartbreaking". But his exact approach is not clear. "The great unanswered question for the Middle East is how the Obama administration will approach the Gaza situation and the larger Palestinian-Israeli conflict," said Scham. "This is in turn related to what Obama's approach will be to Iran, to Islamist groups in general, and to what extent he will reverse the Bush administration's emphasis on using preconditions and force as opposed to more traditional diplomacy, i.e., approaching most issues as conducive to compromise and peaceful settlement." Obama said that his administration would act immediately as a third party to broker peace among the Palestinians and Israelis, something the Bush administration ignored for eight years. International outrage over Israel's massive assault on Gaza may well spur Obama to keep to his word. "Both Palestinians and Israelis are anxious to see how the Obama administration will handle the overall Palestinian-Israeli conflict and particularly the Gaza crisis," said Ahmed. The Israelis will remind Obama of his many pro-Israel statements during the presidential campaign. When Obama visited Israel, he openly sided with Israeli policies and Israeli attacks against Palestinians, which he saw defensive in nature. On the Palestinian side, said Ahmed, Obama offers a ray of hope after eight years of "arrogance and the ignorance of the Bush administration". But he warned that, "despair has become real towards the United States because of Bush's limitless support of Israeli brutality and terrorism, especially as has been amply magnified in Gaza." Therefore, Palestinians do count on Obama's promise of change in the Middle East in order to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict." How much change Obama will bring to the Middle East remains to be seen. Scham said anyone expecting a fundamental swing in American policy, or a tilt towards the Palestinians, "is deluding him or herself. Obama is not a revolutionary." And while Israel may not have the free reign it had under the Bush administration, the Israelis may find themselves back in the familiar territory of an earlier American president -- Bill Clinton. "I doubt Obama et al will be as favourably disposed towards Israel as the Bush administration has been, probably closer to the Clinton approach given the number of Clintonites in the States and elsewhere," said Ronnie Lipschutz of the University of California at Santa Cruz. On whether the Obama administration will go farther than Bush and attempt to forge a Middle East peace, Lipschutz said it might happen over the middle-term. "Perhaps in a year or so, the new administration will begin to explore options. But this will also depend on the results of the Israeli elections on 10 February." Ironically, Scham said, the Gaza campaign makes the election of the more peace-leaning candidates, Tzipi Livni and Ehud Barak, more likely than before the Gaza conflict. "Even Netanyahu, if he does become prime minister in the next government, will have to modify his agenda to take account of Obama's priorities," said Scham. Richard Haass, head of the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in Newsweek that "every crisis holds within it the seeds of opportunity." Haass said to take advantage of this opportunity the Obama administration will need to give the Palestinians "a reason for choosing talks over terror. The only way to do this is to demonstrate that talking -- negotiating -- will deliver more than fighting." Haass stressed that Obama should address what the US believes is a reasonable solution to the Middle East conflict "sooner rather than later". Ahmed said if Obama introduces real policy changes that recognise Palestinian rights, then "a new chapter will begin." And while Obama's Middle East policy remains vague at this point, he will need to address the critical situation in Gaza as soon as he assumes office. "It remains essential that Obama make his position clear regarding Israeli brutalities and genocide in Gaza for him to gain some credibility in Palestinian circles." International outrage at Israel's carnage presents Obama with his most pressing international crisis as he begins his term of office. As the world awaits a new chapter in US politics, how he reacts to the electoral provocation that Israel has cynically presented him with will set the tone for his presidency: is he to be a courageous and principled leader, or just another craven captive of the pro-Israeli establishment?
