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The final push
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 05 - 01 - 2012

Gamal Essam El-Din reports on the third stage of parliamentary elections which ended yesterday
The third and final stage of elections began on Tuesday, with the results expected to confirm the emergence of Islamist parties as the dominant force in Egypt's first post-Mubarak parliament.
Nine governorates -- Daqahliya, Gharbiya, Qalioubiya, Minya, Qena, North Sinai, South Sinai, Al-Wadi Al-Gadid) and Marsa Matrouh -- are taking part, with run-off elections scheduled for 10 and 11 January. Of the 2,754 candidates competing for the remaining 150 parliamentary seats, 1,212 are fighting over the 100 places reserved for party list candidates, while 1,542 are battling for the 50 seats earmarked for independents.
In the first two stages 348 seats were up for grabs, though legal disputes and election irregularities have meant that only 322 seats have been declared. The Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) won 149, followed by the Salafist Nour Party with 80. The Wafd took 25 seats and the Egyptian Bloc 23. A further 33 seats were divided between 11 smaller parties, with the remaining 12 going to non-party candidates.
The FJP issued a statement saying the results of the first two stages in the polls had confirmed then popularity of Brotherhood-affiliated candidates in both rural and densely populated districts. "Not only have FJP candidates defeated their rivals but the chairmen of at least 10 FJP provincial offices have found their way to parliament," the statement said. A majority of FJP provincial leaders are former Muslim Brotherhood deputies.
The FJP is fielding 136 candidates in the third stage of the polls, 17 of them former Muslim Brotherhood MPs.
The party is fielding some of its highest profile candidates in the final round, including Mohamed El-Beltagui and Mohsen Radi in Qalioubiya, Saad El-Husseini, Hassanein El-Shura and Alameddin El-Sakhawi in Gharbiya, Saad El-Katatni in Minya, Ibrahim Abu Ouf in Daqahliya and Hisham El-Qadi in the Upper Egypt governorate of Qena.
Party officials predict it will win at least 41 seats in the first round, concentrated in Gharbiya, Daqahliya and Qalioubiya, the three socially conservative rural governorates in which the Brotherhood has long had a strong presence.
In Gharbiya the FJP is fielding 30 candidates, 20 on its party lists and 10 in first past-the-post constituencies. In 2005 Gharbiya returned 10 Brotherhood deputies, the largest number of any governorate.
The FJP is facing some competition in its Delta strongholds from former members of the NDP and NDP offshoot parties such as Al-Horriya (Freedom). Businessman Yasser El-Guindi, former goalkeeper Ahmed Shubair and doctor Talaat Abdel-Qawi are among those hoping to cause an upset.
In Daqahliya Egypt National Party candidate and Faraeen TV channel owner Tawfik Okasha, Hayam Amer, a former NDP MP, and Ittihad (Union) Party businessman Shawki Abdel-Alim are standing against the seemingly inexorable Islamist tide, while The Revolution Continues candidates have received the support of Mohamed Ghoneim, founder of the governorate's International Centre for Kidney Diseases.
In Qalioubiya the three former Muslim Brotherhood MPs Mohamed El-Beltagui, Mohsen Radi and Gamal Shehata are expected to win.
In Minya FJP Secretary-General Saad El-Katatni faces off against Wasat Party Chairman Abul-Ela Madi, Ihab Ramzi, the brother of comedian Hani Ramzi and Mahmoud Kamel Marwan, a former NDP MP.
In Qena Abdel-Rehim Al-Ghoul, former chairman of the parliamentary agriculture committee; businessman Moataz Hassan, chairman of the Horriya Party and Hisham El-Shini, the former NDP MP who most recently organised a conference attacking the youth movements that kick- started the revolution, are hoping to keep a by now extremely ragged NDP flag flying.
Tribal and clan considerations are likely to determine the outcome of the ballot in South and North Sinai, Marsa Matrouh and Al-Wadi Al-Gadid.
The Salafist Nour Party has fielded 144 candidates in the third round, 100 on party list and 44 in individual candidacy constituencies.
FJP officials are hoping that recent publicity given to talks between Salafist Nour Party leaders and Israeli officials in Cairo, and the refusal of the party's leaders to extend their greetings to Coptic Christians over the Christmas period, will result in a collapse of the Salafist vote.
Despite warnings from the Supreme Elections Committee, party campaigning continued in the 48 hours preceding the opening of polling stations in blatant contradiction of election regulations. In the Gharbiya governorate district of Kafr Al-Zayat the headquarters of the liberal Al-Adl Party was attacked by Molotov cocktails. Rumours are rife that supporters of Islamist parties were behind the arson.


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