Pessimism prevails in Iraq at the beginning of 2012, with renewed talk of partitioning the country, writes Salah Nasrawi As Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki celebrates the withdrawal of the last US combat troops from Iraq, calling their exit a "new dawn" for the country, Iraq continues to sink into a deep political standoff that many believe will see the country plummet into the abyss. The US departure and ensuing power struggle have reignited debates about reshaping Iraq as a federal state in order to avert a looming sectarian war. On Saturday, Al-Maliki marked the end of the 2008 security pact with the United States and the last day of the US troop pull out, nearly nine years after the US-led invasion of Iraq that toppled the Sunni-dominated regime of former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein and elevated the country's majority Shias to power. In a ceremony boycotted by Sunni and Kurdish leaders, Al-Maliki declared the day a national holiday, dubbed Iraq Day, and called on his countrymen to redouble their efforts to rebuild the nation now that the US troops have left. He also sought to reassure those who worry about his authoritarian rule, saying that he would work to maintain freedom and to "respect political, intellectual and religious diversity" in Iraq. Al-Maliki's remarks came as the country has become increasingly mired in political infighting between his Shia-led government and the main Sunni-backed bloc, further exacerbating sectarian tensions. Iraq's latest political crisis started when an arrest warrant was issued for the country's highest-ranking Sunni politician, vice-president Tariq Al-Hashemi, on charges of terrorism. Al-Hashemi, who sought refuge in the northern Kurdish region before he was arrested, was accused of running death squads and being involved in an assassination attempt on al-Maliki. Al-Maliki also asked the Iraqi parliament to fire Sunni Deputy Prime Minister Saleh Al-Mutleq, accusing him of lacking faith in the political process. The two decisions prompted the Sunni-backed Iraqiya bloc, which holds 82 of the 325 seats in the country's parliament, to boycott the legislature and freeze the participation of its ministers in the government. The boycott was called to protest against what Iraqiya leaders have termed heavy-handed moves made by Al-Maliki, the leaders being particularly angry at his opposition to the country's Sunni provinces seeking more autonomy from Baghdad. Over recent days the rival leaders have exchanged verbal spats, escalating tensions and deepening the power struggle in the country. Iraqi Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani has warned that these sectarian spats could trigger civil war. A politician associated with Al-Maliki's bloc called on Sunday for Iraqi president Jalal Talabani to be put on trial on terrorism charges for sheltering Al-Hashemi in his stronghold of Sulaimaniya province. Kurdish politicians have also accused Al-Maliki's bloc of blackmail, with leaders of the Kurdish bloc preventing a quorum at the reopening of the country's parliament on Tuesday as it started its first session of the year intended to approve the state budget. The politicians only returned to the session after they had received an apology for the attacks made on Talabani, himself a Kurd. Meanwhile, parliamentary speaker Osama Al-Nujaifi, a Sunni, warned on Monday against attempts to use the Shia-controlled army and security forces as tools in sectarian disputes. He complained of an "unbalanced and inequitable regional and social system" in the country and accused the government of human rights violations. These latest developments come against a background of Shia and Sunni political parties jockeying for position in Iraq, with radical Shia cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr also attacking Al-Maliki's Shia Dawa Party for allegedly luring supporters from his movement into the mainstream political process. As the political wrangling continues, the security situation in the country continues to deteriorate. On Sunday, Sunni Finance Minister Rafe Al-Essawi, a leader of the Iraqiya bloc, escaped an assassination attempt when his convoy was hit by a roadside bomb outside Baghdad. Iraqiya accused unnamed government agents of being behind the blast, which wounded three bodyguards. Dozens of people were also either killed or wounded this week in attacks in several Iraqi cities. Rising political tensions and increasing violence have spurred a new exodus from Baghdad, with Iraqi press reports suggesting that Shia and Sunni families are leaving their homes to settle in segregated neighbourhoods. Some Sunni politicians in Baghdad have been leaving with their families on the grounds that it is too dangerous for them to stay, the media has reported. The question that many observers are asking is whether Iraq can remain intact, now that the American forces have left the country. Many observers believe that the country's challenges do not only have to do with political mismanagement and the lack of vision on the part of Iraq's leaders, but also with the structural problems facing the country. They dismiss the idea that a planned national conference being pushed by Washington, or concessions by Al-Maliki to the Sunni provinces if they drop their demands for autonomy, would yield any results. This pessimistic outlook has been coupled with renewed calls for a federal Iraq. In its new year issue the British magazine The Economist suggested that "the least bad way ahead, if the country is to avoid another bloodbath or an eventual break-up, is to enact a federal formula." On Monday, Leslie H Gelb, president emeritus of the US Council on Foreign Relations, reiterated suggestions that Iraq should be divided into three entities, one for the Kurds, one for the Shias and one for the Sunnis. In an article in the US magazine Newsweek, Gelb said that Iraq could "become prey to neighbours like Iran or the scene of endless civil war." In 2006, Gelb and US vice-president Joe Biden, then a senator, proposed the idea of a "soft portioning" of Iraq. The return to the proposals now underlines efforts by the Obama administration to convince Iraqis and the international community to take the idea seriously as a future option for the country. Also on Monday, the Turkish newspaper Zaman suggested that Iraq be partitioned into two "sections," with Sunni Arabs and Kurds being put together in one entity, leaving Arab Shias in another. The paper suggested that the Arab Sunni-Kurdish section could be under Turkish influence, while the Shia section could be placed under the influence of Iran. Whatever the objectives behind this talk of Iraqi federalism may be, it suggests that many outside Iraq now believe that the country cannot be saved in its present form. This means that the country's future may well be decided outside Iraq, most likely in neighbouring capitals, over the course of the present year.
