Swinging right, or backwards? The NTC shies away from posing as a trend-setter of the Arab world for obvious reasons, reckons Gamal Nkrumah Libya unquestionably suffers from the turmoil associated with moving abruptly from a political system in which power was confined to a relatively restricted elite, even a one-man show, to a more inclusive Western-style democracy. Are Libyans wading into dangerous waters? The answer is yes. However, it is right for the Libyan people to do so nonetheless, so long as they are aware of the risks. The studious lack of mutual criticism between the West and Libya's new leaders is somewhat disconcerting. Libyans must not focus exclusively on the opportunities that a post-Muammar Gaddafi dispensation provides. The forcible imposition of Western values on non-Western societies sometimes produces awkward outcomes. Gaddafi made much political capital from his readiness to defy the might of the imperialist West. However, he also did brisk business with his supposed adversaries and they seemed reconciled to his ineffectual antics in recent years, but in an about-face, they stabbed him in the back. The West branded Gaddafi a dangerous despot with a criminal record. It made no secret of its newly earnest wish to see him deposed. It supported, morally and militarily, the opposition groups that it hoped will be the instrument of its desire. Yet few in the West questioned the credentials of the disparate Libyan opposition forces fighting Gaddafi. They, in turn, never lost hope of getting decisive help from outsiders -- the West and conservative Gulf Arab nations alike. Today the West worries, no doubt, about the cohesion of the National Transitional Council (NTC). For all its fragility, the NTC announced that it would form a government of national unity next week. It is adamant that peace and prosperity will come only with stable democracy. Yet the NTC, in spite of the tremendous debt it owes NATO for freeing Libya from Gaddafi's stranglehold, might even be no friendlier to the West in the long-run. Civil war in Libya could turn into regional chaos engulfing the entire Saharan and Sahelian regions of northern and western Africa. Nobody knows what will happen in Libya over the coming months. The more prominent of the NTC leaders have been quick to applaud the West at international forums such as the United Nations, others among the NTC rank and file have been more reticent. So was the West right to wade into the uncharted waters of Libya? The West faces practical difficulties in assisting the NTC. Policymakers in Western capitals see Libya's new leadership as divided and ineffective. Several NTC leaders themselves are implicated in crimes ostensibly committed by Gaddafi himself. The leaders of the NTC have described themselves as "moderate Islamists" whatever that means. It is not hard either to detect political resistance to Western-style democracy among the rank and file of the NTC. Such criticisms of the NTC should not be lightly dismissed. If NTC leaders succeed in deploying the threat of militant Islam to bludgeon secularist and socialist forces into submission, the results for Libyan democracy will even be more damaging. The West's propulsion of the NTC to power in Libya will be a Pyrrhic victory. With good reason, Gaddafi diehards will never accept their defeat as legitimate. The subject of Islam -- militant or moderate -- will become as bitterly polarised as democracy, and just as incapable of resolution through debate or compromise. Whatever the outcome of NTC power struggles, their dubious quest for transparency, imposed from outside, will be viewed by human rights organisations as an evasion of authentic democratic accountability. Libyans cannot afford such an abuse of their hard-won democracy. Libya's new leaders need not worry that the pay-off from reform will be disappointing. Yes, tough times lie ahead. Democratic reforms are rather controversial, some will be fiercely resisted by the more militant Islamist and traditionally conservative forces. It is crucially important to remember that success for the NTC came by the narrowest of margins. Even as Al-Ahram Weekly went to press, the NTC's Liberation Army was forced to retreat from the besieged city of Sirte, Gaddafi's hometown, because of fierce resistance from the former Libyan leader's followers. Other Gaddafi bastions such as the town of Bani Walid to the immediate south of Tripoli and the southern city of Sebha, where Gaddafi spent considerable time during his youth, are still holding out against the NTC's Liberation Army. Gaddafi's daughter Aisha told reporters in Algiers that her father was "in good spirits and fighting alongside his supporters". Algeria is attempting to distant itself from the Gaddafi regime, however. and Algerian Foreign Minister Murad Mdeleci dismissed Aisha's comments as "unacceptable". She was given temporary political asylum in Algeria on condition that she does not utter controversial public statements, the Algerian authorities insist. The Algerian daily Al-Akhbar reported that Gaddafi hangers-on, possibly including Aisha and other members of his family had left Algeria bound for Egypt. Egyptian authorities officially denied the Algerian reports. Such unconfirmed reports have not shed light on the whereabouts of Gaddafi's close family members, inner circle and high-profile sycophants. The most disconcerting development as far as the NTC is concerned is a growing sense of unease about the fate of Gaddafi. "The fact that he is still free and has wealth at his disposal can destabilise Libya and the region," Mahmoud Jibril, the NTC executive committee chairman said. Tweedledum and Tweedledee, Mustafa Abdel-Jalil and Mahmoud Jibril, peer optimistically through the looking-glass of the global capitalist economy. Even as Libya's new leaders wrangle over the distracting details of democracy, the scheme hatched by Western investors to exploit the oil-rich country's resources unravels. Already the proposed democratisation and laissez-faire economic changes have prompted renewed talk of the vigour of the market and the gridlock of Gaddafi's discredited state capitalism. Italy's ENI, the giant oil corporation and largest foreign oil producer in Libya before Gaddafi was overthrown, announced the resumption of its oil extraction. France's Total, too, announced the restart of its oil production and exploration in Libya. The NTC naturally glossed over these developments. The NTC clearly has a morning-after problem. It finds itself in a precarious environment of messy and protracted transition to democracy. A split in its ranks between "moderate" and "militant" Islamists hampers the NTC's efforts to effect radical reform. One can appreciate the predicament that has led the NTC to conclude that an appeal to the Libyan people for restraint is their best course of action. The NTC and the United Nations are deeply concerned about the proliferation of arms in Libya and the discovery of weapons of mass destruction stashed away by Gaddafi in remote desert depots. A depot of chemical weapons and yellow-cake uranium stockpiles across the country sounded the alarm bells in Western capitals. A depot of chemical weapons was supposedly found in the oasis town of Jufra, 435km south of Tripoli. Western fears abound that the weapons will fall into the hands of Al-Qaeda and already there are indications that some of the chemical stockpiles have been pilfered by "terrorist" groups affiliated with Al-Qaeda and have found their way to neighbouring countries such as Algeria, Chad, Mali, Niger and Sudan. Such allegations are unsubstantiated, but Western powers and the UN are taking the threat seriously. Resentment in the international community is also growing about the treatment of an estimated 30,000 Sub-Saharan Africans stranded in Sebha and other southern cities in the province of Fezzan, southern Libya. Black people are asked to produce identification documents to prove that they are local Libyans. The UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Libya Panos Moumtzis warned that the UN was "extremely concerned about civilians being caught up in the middle of the conflict regardless of which side it serves." Another bone of contention between the NTC and its Western benefactors is the re-activation and resumption of the Lockerbie file. The NTC insisted that the Lockerbie file be closed once and for all. Scotland, however, has submitted an official request to Libya's new leaders to look into the Lockerbie affair. Scotland's chief prosecutor Lord Advocate Frank Mulholland requested that Abdel-Baset Al-Megrahi, the chief suspect in the Lockerbie affair, stand trial, a request that was flatly denied. A senior Gaddafi aide General Belgacem Al-Aibaaj was captured by the NTC and there are hopes that he might lead them to Gaddafi's hiding place. Libya's on a knife-edge. Sceptics roll their eyes at Gaddafi's ominous prophecy that the militant Islamists and Al-Qaeda will take over the country if and when he steps down. Now that he's out of office, there's more than a suspicion that his divination will come true.
