According to the latest Global Terrorism Index (2018) published by the Institute for Economics and Peace, the Sahel-Sahara region ranks third in the world as the region most impacted by terrorism from 2002 to 2017, both in terms of the frequency of attacks and the total number of victims. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and South Asia regions ranked second and third, respectively. Although Boko Haram is the most notorious terrorist group in the Sahel-Sahara region, even as terrorist attacks receded somewhat last year other groups have become increasingly active. Foremost among these are Fulani extremists, the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJWA), the Union for Peace in Central Africa (UPC), the Murabitoun, the Ansar Al-Dine, the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and groups affiliated with Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) that are active in southern Libya and Algeria. Examining global and regional trends over recent years, it is possible to identify three major parameters of the future of terrorism in the Sahel-Sahara region. Firstly, the region is becoming a prolific incubator of diverse and metamorphosing terrorist entities, and this will impact not only the countries in the region and those adjacent to it (such as the countries of North Africa), but also the security of European countries. Around 9,000 terrorists are estimated to be active in the Sahel, and the number is likely to increase. This development is a shift away from recent trends in which countries of the MENA region were the most prolific breeders of terrorist groups (such as ISIS in Iraq, Syria and eastern Libya and Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis in North Sinai). Some of these organisations have extended their operations beyond the borders of the countries in which they emerged, as has been the case with ISIS which has extended its activities to the Sahel. The second parameter consists of the fusions between the new terrorist organisations (IS affiliates and some other like-minded jihadist and salafist entities) and older terrorist organisations (such as AQIM or its affiliates), generating new entities made up of members of both the new and old organisations. A prime example is the Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wa-Al-Muslimin (JNIM) that was formed in March 2017 following a merger between fighters from AQIM, the Fulani group, Ansar Al-Dine and the Murabitoun. The new entities subscribe to a creed that blends Al-Qaeda's jihadist and salafist doctrines with IS ideas, while their activities rely on relations with organised crime groups operating in arms and drugs smuggling and human-trafficking. The potential for such mergers is growing in tandem with the wave of terrorists leaving Iraq and Syria, many of whom are expected to gravitate towards the Sahel-Sahara region via southern Libya and Algeria. An estimated 46 per cent of the foreign terrorists in Iraq and Syria have headed towards North Africa and conflict zones in the Sahel since the end of 2018, according to recently published statistics. In view of the different circumstances in the latter region, where ISIS's influence is limited, the group's members can be expected to shift affiliations. Thirdly, the new terrorist entities in the region might tend to develop more conventional structures in terms of hierarchy and training camps, but this will not necessarily signal a departure from their hybrid creeds. The camps, located in remote desert areas, will produce fighters trained in carrying out attacks using more conventional methods, such as armed assaults against particular targets. But they will also train operatives in how to manufacture, deploy and carry out attacks using explosives and explosive devices that are inexpensive, easy to manufacture, and easy to transport to targeted destinations in the Sahel-Sahara and neighbouring regions. We can thus anticipate new developments in the terrorist modus operandi in the Sahel. Up to now, the prevailing trend among terrorist entities active in the region has been to wage armed assaults against specified targets. The use of explosive devices was less common and hostage-taking even rarer. The new shape of terrorism in the Sahel-Sahara, as shaped by these three parameters, calls for urgent counter-terrorism policy planning in the MENA countries, especially those adjacent to the Sahel-Sahara region, such as Libya, Egypt and Algeria, which stand to be most affected by terrorist activity in the Sahel. In their efforts to plan and implement effective counter-terrorist strategies, these three countries should pay particular attention to the following. First, there is a need to develop early warning systems. This entails the pre-emptive tracking of terrorist movements between conflict zones in Africa with a focus on the Sahel-Sahara region and the mapping of their relations with organised crime gangs active in the area. Second, there is a need to develop technologies to secure border zones, bringing to bear the latest in border and territorial camera and sensor surveillance systems. It will also be essential to tighten security in adjacent areas to prevent them from becoming incubators of extremist groups and to dismantle the symbiotic relations between terrorism and organised crime. Third, there is a need to develop policies and strategies for fighting the hybrid extremist creeds mentioned above. These ideologies will aim to adapt to and to exploit local religious, political, cultural, social and other elements in the societies in which the terrorist groups operate, especially in countries characterised by ethnic, religious, and tribal diversity and sensitivities. Governments will thus need to develop all the means necessary to raise the awareness of their citizens and to strengthen their societies against terrorist or extremist ideas wherever they have the potential to take hold. 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The writer is head of security and military researches unit at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies.
