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Iraq is much more than just an American problem
Richard N Haass
Published in
Daily News Egypt
on 24 - 07 - 2007
Many people around the world are indulging in what the Germans call "schadenfreude : pleasure at the suffering of others. The pleasure appears to be derived from the suffering the
United States
is enduring after four years of efforts to stabilize
Iraq
. On one level, that reaction is predictable. Resentment of the wealthy and powerful is hardly new. But the US in the last few years has compounded this reaction by what it has done and how it has done it. For some, it was the decision to go to war in
Iraq
; for others, it was the Guantanamo prison and the perceived double standards of American justice. For still others, it was the lack of sustained effort to bring about peace between Israelis and Palestinians or US opposition to the International Criminal Court and to the Kyoto Protocol on climate change. The result is that anti-Americanism has grown in both reach and intensity. Still, any satisfaction at the problems the US is undergoing in
Iraq
is shortsighted and sure to be short-lived. Every government in the world has a stake in the future of
Iraq
and the stability of the Middle East. Terrorism bred in
Iraq
will not stay there. Those men and women who learn to make and detonate roadside bombs on the streets of
Baghdad
will ply their trade elsewhere in the region and beyond. Terrorists who have tasted success in
Iraq
will increasingly turn on others. Expressions of anti-Americanism will provide no protection or immunity to governments or individuals who for good reason are not prepared to endorse the terrorists' radical agendas. War in
Iraq
will only exacerbate frictions between the country's Sunni minority and Shiite majority, and such frictions could well be replicated elsewhere where Sunnis and Shiites live side by side. Even if not, the flight of millions of Sunni refugees will weaken the foundations of neighboring states, including
Jordan
. Continued fighting in
Iraq
could also lead to regional war.
Turkey
, for example, is poised to attack the Kurdish enclave in
Iraq
's north. It is also possible that resistance to
Iranian
efforts to dominate
Iraq
could lead to a wider conflict that draws in Saudi Arabia,
Egypt
, and others. Such a conflict would threaten the vital flow of oil from the Middle East to the rest of the world. Even without such a wider conflict, what happens in
Iraq
will affect the price of oil.
Iraq
is producing oil at levels below what it produced under Saddam Hussein, and has the potential to double or even triple output. Doing so would require significant investment, which in turn would require international confidence in
Iraq
's future stability. Absent such confidence,
Iraq
's oil output will not approach its potential, which will only widen the gap between global supply and demand. Costly oil is a tax on the poor in developing countries and a source of inflation for the developed countries. It also provides resources to governments that in many cases are promoting foreign policies that are contrary to the interests of most other countries. The rest of the world also has a stake in how the US emerges from
Iraq
. There is a real danger that a widely-perceived failure in
Iraq
could lead to a serious weakening of American domestic political support for an active international role, particularly difficult but necessary deployments of military force. The alternative to a world shaped by a strong, confident, and engaged US is not likely to be a world that is peaceful, prosperous, and free. In strategic terms, no other country or group of countries has the capacity to replace the US. The alternative to a US-led global order is disorder, in which terrorism, nuclear proliferation, and economic protectionism are increasingly the norm. This suggests, first, that governments should avoid public comments describing the American presence as an occupation or as lacking legitimacy, lest they make it more likely that the US departs
Iraq
entirely and leaves the country and its people to a terrible fate. Second, countries should support
Iraq
's government, despite its shortcomings. This means extending diplomatic recognition, including opening and maintaining embassies. It also requires providing financial help, ranging from debt forgiveness to investment, loans, and other forms of aid. There is also a moral and practical case for doing more to ease the plight of refugees and internally displaced persons. Third, terrorism needs to be checked. This means doing everything possible to stop infiltration of terrorists into
Iraq
and rethinking support for militias. None of
Iraq
's neighbors, including
Iran
, would benefit from sectarian conflict that grows into a regional war. Finally, governments should consider contributing troops to help establish order, train the
Iraqi
police and military, and help
Iraq
guard its borders. As the US inevitably reduces its role, others should be prepared to step up, lest
Iraq
's government falls and the
Iraqi
state fails. The reality is that
Iraq
's future is not assured even if these and similar measures are taken. Still, there is a big difference between an
Iraq
that struggles and one that implodes; between an
Iraq
that contributes to global energy security rather than undermining it; between a civil war and a regional war. It may be too late for the US to succeed in
Iraq
, but it is not too late for others to increase the odds that the US does not fail.
Richard N. Haassis president of the Council on Foreign Relations and author of "The Opportunity: America's Moment to Alter History's Course. THE DAILY STAR publishes this commentary in collaboration with Project Syndicate © (www.project-syndicate.org).
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