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Regional arms race
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 14 - 03 - 2019

Arab countries are among the world's largest arms importers. According to recent updates to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's (SIPRI) database, half of the world's top 10 arms importers are Arab states — Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Algeria, the UAE and Iraq.
Although the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) remains the region most plagued by armed conflict and unconventional threats, Asian countries continue to rank high among the world's arms importers.
In terms of military expenditure, India, Australia, China, South Korea and Vietnam account for 40 per cent of the total purchases of arms exports, despite many of them being arms manufacturers.
The ranking of Arab importers varies little from previous years. The SIPRI report covers 2014 to 2018, a period that witnessed great turbulence in the region which, accompanied by the ongoing threat of terrorism, fuelled the ambitious armaments programmes.
Apart from Algeria the five leading Arab arms purchasers have had to battle terrorism directly, whether on home territory, as is the case with Iraq and Egypt, or as partners in military coalitions. Saudi Arabia and the UAE lead the Arab coalition in Yemen.
SIPRI's assessment of the volume of arms transfers relies on two major indicators — the actual deliveries of conventional weapons, and the distribution of these deliveries over a five-year period.
Iraq and Syria present an interesting contrast in terms of their rankings as weapons importers during the period. Between 2014 and 2018 both countries faced an escalating confrontation against Islamic State and, in Syria, other rebel and terrorist groups. Yet Iraq ranked the world's eighth largest importer of arms while Syria ranked 60th. Iraq received large deliveries of major combat weapons, including fighter planes and assault helicopters, mostly from the US and Russia. The overall quantities were 139 per cent higher than the preceding assessment period (2009-2013) whereas Syria's imports in 2014-2018 fell by 87 per cent from the previous five years. According to the report, between 2009 and 2013 Moscow supplied Damascus with high-value air defence systems and anti-ship missiles whereas in the recent period it delivered mainly low-value arms, items such as second-hand armoured vehicles.
Russia is using an array of high- and low-value weaponry in its campaign to support the Syrian regime. As the Russian defence minister pointed out earlier this month, Russia has tested 316 new weapons in Syria.
Egypt's ranking in the report reflects the growth in its military acquisitions in the framework of a comprehensive military development programme that, in the short to mid-term, calls for the rapid modernisation of defence systems in order to contend with mounting national and regional security demands. The proliferation of regional threats and the fallout from the collapse of neighbouring Arab states; the maritime security demands posed by recently discovered offshore natural gas fields and the intensification of the ongoing battle against terrorism in Sinai have combined to necessitate more powerful, rapid and widespread deployment and mobilisation capabilities.
The report mirrors another important aspect of Egypt's armaments drive since 2014 — the diversification of supplies. In this it stands apart from most other Arab countries. According to the report, 37 per cent of Egypt's imports came from France, 30 per cent from Russia and 19 per cent from the US. Another 14 per cent came from other sources, including Germany which delivered submarines during the assessment period.
Saudi Arabia's sharp increase in arms purchases from 2014 to 2018 has made it one of the world's largest arms importers. Riyadh obtained 68 per cent of its imports from the US. Saudi purchases included 56 combat aircraft from the US and 38 from the UK, all of them fitted with cruise missiles and guided weapons. And the growth in expenditure on weapons looks set to continue into the next five-year assessment period given the deals Riyadh has concluded or is in the process of concluding.
According to the report, planned deliveries include 98 combat aircraft, seven missile defence systems and 83 tanks from the US; 737 armoured vehicles from Canada; five frigates from Spain and short-range ballistic missiles from Ukraine.
The seventh largest arms importer, the UAE, has defence policies similar to Saudi Arabia. In addition to facing common security threats, primarily from Iran, they are partners in the coalition fighting to restore the legitimate government of Yemen. Like Saudi Arabia, the UAE has dedicated a significant portion of its military acquisitions to military operations against the Houthis.
The US was the primary source of arms imports (64 per cent) for Abu Dhabi between 2014 and 2018. Deliveries included five missile defence systems, 124 short-range ballistic missiles and 1,671 armoured personnel carriers from the US and three warships from France.
Qatar, which ranks 14th in the report, showed the largest increase in the volume of its acquisitions between the two assessment periods. According to the report, Qatari arms imports soared by 225 per cent between 2009 and 2013 and 2014 and 2018, compared to a 192 per cent increase for Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE perceive Qatar as a threat in the Gulf and hostile relations between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi on one side, and Qatar, on the other, have driven the regional arms race.
Ironically, Qatar shares the same armaments sources as its two Gulf adversaries. According to the report, 65 per cent of Qatari arms imports in the 2014 to 2018 period came from the US. Doha also imported Rafale fighter planes from France, tanks from Germany, ballistic missiles from China and short-range air defence systems from Russia.
In the next five-year period — 2019 to 2023 — Qatar expects to receive 93 combat aircraft (36 from the US, 33 from France and 24 from the UK) and four frigates from Italy.


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