What can Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki hope to achieve during his forthcoming trip to Washington, asks Salah Nasrawi The arrival of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki in Washington on 12 December is meant to usher in a new era in Iraq's relations with the United States, as US troops prepare to leave the country in two weeks time. The withdrawal, under the security pact signed between Baghdad and Washington in 2008, is a big step forward towards Iraq's regaining its sovereign after nearly nine years of occupation following the US-led invasion in 2003. Al-Maliki announced his impending visit in early November, saying that "it will come in the context of deepening friendship, cooperation and common interests between the two countries." The White House, meanwhile, said that US president Barack Obama's talks with Al-Maliki would focus on "deepening the comprehensive strategic partnership between the United States and Iraq." The talks will be a defining moment for Al-Maliki, who is trying to assert himself as a strong leader, and probably for Iraq as well, the country expected to be at a crossroads after the US withdrawal. Obama invited Al-Maliki to Washington following accusations by Republican Party leaders of "capitulation" to the Iraqi leader, who vehemently rejected giving immunity to any remaining US soldiers in Iraq. The leaders accused the Obama administration of abandoning Iraq and leaving the door open for Iran to increase its influence there, possibly further imperiling the already perilous region. Before he flies to Washington, Al-Maliki has been trying to assert his leadership, insisting that Iraqi security forces are ready to protect the country once the American military withdraws by the end of the year. In an interview with the Associated Press on Saturday, he predicted that his country would achieve stability and remain independent of its giant neighbour Iran, even without a US troop presence. In an article published in the Washington Post on Monday, Al-Maliki said that the departure of the American troops would allow the two nations "to begin a new chapter based on mutual interests and respect." He suggested that the two countries "solidify a durable relationship" by focusing on economic, cultural, educational and scientific cooperation, and he alluded to opportunities for American companies in reconstruction projects in Iraq. Neither Al-Maliki nor Obama has offered any detail of the talks, but outlines revealed in Baghdad and Washington show differences on how to resolve Iraq's post-occupation problems. For Baghdad, Al-Maliki is expected to urge Obama to help Iraq emerge from the remaining UN Security Council sanctions placed on the country after the invasion of Kuwait in 1990 by former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein. Under the 2008 security pact, the US agreed to help Iraq emerge from surveillance under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, after Iraq settled a $400 million dispute with Americans who claim they were mistreated by the Saddam regime during the 1990-1991 Gulf War. Baghdad has paid the money, but Washington has yet to ask the UN to lift the sanctions, which still impede Iraq's sovereignty. Another issue is the future fate of hundreds of members of an Iranian opposition group, the Mojahedin-e-Khalq, who have been taking refuge in Iraq and who the Al-Maliki government wants to leave by the end of the year. US troops have refused to dismantle the Iranian group's camp near the Iran-Iraq border, and some US congressmen want the administration to pressure Al-Maliki into keeping the camp open. Iraq says the presence of the group, invited into the country by the Saddam regime during the Iraq-Iran war in the 1980s, poisons its relations with Iran. In his article in the Washington Post, Al-Maliki made it clear that he would not succumb to such pressure, arguing that the group was a designated terrorist organisation under US law. While in Washington, Al-Maliki is expected to hear serious words from Obama about Iraq's looming problems after the American soldiers leave, requiring cooperation on both sides. One issue expected to be at the top of the agenda is the concern that Iraqi security forces may not be capable of policing the country after the US forces depart. Dozens of Shia pilgrims were killed or wounded in a series of bomb blasts in Iraq this week that tore through crowds celebrating a major religious occasion. Political tensions and violence are escalating in Iraq, even as the last American troops prepare to leave the country. Over recent months, many Iraqi Sunnis have declared their community's desire to secede from an ethnically-divided Iraq and seek their own autonomy. They have accused the Shia-led government of increasing sectarian tensions by arresting more than one hundred former members of the former ruling Iraqi Baath Party in recent weeks on suspicion of plotting against the government. Tension has also risen in the Kurdish-controlled provinces in the north of the country and in areas contested by Iraq's central government and the autonomous northern Kurdistan region. Last month, Kurdish forces tried to prevent Iraqi army soldiers from taking over a military base in Kirkuk in the north of the country after the departure of US troops. Kurds and Turkmen in Kirkuk have declared themselves to be against the US withdrawal, fearing violence will escalate once the US pulls out its troops. Arabs in Kirkuk want the Iraqi army to take over security in the oil-rich province. In other developments, at least 25 people were wounded in the northern Iraqi town of Zakho on Friday in acts of sabotage carried out by men instigated by a Muslim cleric. Dozens of young men attacked stores selling alcohol, as well as two massage parlours and two hotels believed to be owned by Christians and Yazidis, another religious minority. The Iraqi media has speculated that the incidents could have been orchestrated by Kurdish leaders in order to pressure American troops to stay in Iraq. Other reports suggested that Iraq's Christian community has been asking for international protection after the Americans withdraw. Even the American embassy in Baghdad has placed new restrictions on its workers traveling outside the walled-off Green Zone of the capital, citing threats of kidnappings and terrorist attacks near the embassy's site. All this suggests that there should be new bargaining on the future of the Iraqi-US security relationship. Any new deal will need bold decisions from Al-Maliki, whether limited to giving immunity to American soldiers remaining in Iraq, or having to do with new security arrangements. One other area of contention between Obama and Al-Maliki regards the Iraqi Shia-led government's close relationship with Iran and its support for Syria's President Bashar Al-Assad. Iranian influence in Iraq is expected to grow after US troops depart, and Iraq may also increase its political, military and economic assistance to the Al-Assad regime in Syria. Such possibilities have raised concerns in Washington and among Iraq's Arab allies, who are trying to increase Syria's isolation. During his time in office, Al-Maliki has proven to be a shrewd politician who has managed his position at the heart of Iraq's government through maneuvering, bribe-giving and heavy-handed control of the armed forces. He has also kept up an uneasy alliance with Washington, while maintaining close ties with Iran. Yet, Al-Maliki knows that huge practical questions loom ahead that will require some tough political decisions, including on the new working relationships with Washington following the US troop withdrawal. With the Americans out, Iraq will face tremendous challenges and uncertainty. The US visit will be Al-Maliki's last opportunity to try to chart a new strategy with Washington before this happens.
