Tensions between the Baghdad government and the Kurdish regional government in Iraq are running high, with the country's proposed new oil and gas law adding to an already crisis-ridden situation, writes Salah Nasrawi As US troops prepare to withdraw from Iraq by year-end, the Arab-led government in the capital Baghdad and the autonomous Kurdish authorities are gripped in a string of disputes that threaten Iraq's fragile stability, with each side seemingly prepared to dig in to get its way. Tensions have risen between the government of Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki and the Kurds, who are part of his ruling coalition, after the Kurdistan regional government rejected a new oil and gas bill proposed by Baghdad. Judging by the vehemence of the arguments that took place, relations between Al-Maliki's Shia bloc, the Iraqi National Alliance, and the Kurdish government seem to have plummeted to reach rock bottom, with some suggesting the issue could be a matter of make or break for the coalition government. Iraqi Kurds, who are trying to consolidate their political gains following the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, have reacted angrily to the bill, which they fear is one of several measures the central government is planning in a bid to reduce their powers. The Arab central authorities have also given warnings that if the Kurds persist in handling such affairs independently of Baghdad, this will make all talk of a federal and united Iraq worthless. The Baghdad government introduced the final draft of its long-awaited oil and gas law after it was endorsed by a majority of the cabinet, but rejected by two Kurdish ministers. The law would create a federal energy council as the ultimate policy-maker governing Iraq's oil and gas resources. It would give this council the power to approve steps proposed by the country's Oil Ministry and agree procedures for negotiating and concluding drilling, development and production contracts. The bill, which has been sent to the Iraqi parliament for final approval, also calls for a state-owned oil company to control the coveted oilfields in Iraq's northern region, including those in the oil-rich Kirkuk province. The Kurds argue that the proposed law would deprive them of their right to exploit oil and gas resources under their control and that it would give Baghdad more power to manage and develop the country's petroleum resources. Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani has sent Al-Maliki an ultimatum to withdraw the law, and some Kurdish politicians have urged him to pull out from the Baghdad government altogether and to seek a coalition agreement with Al-Maliki's rival Iyad Allawi, leader of the Sunni-backed Al-Iraqiya List. For its part, the Baghdad government has warned against turning the energy issue into a political power play, claiming that it is not unconstitutional. However, the row over the proposed bill has already cut oil exports from the Kurdish region by half, after the Kurds reduced the flow of crude oil through the national pipeline network. In 2009, the Kurds shut down exports from Iraqi Kurdistan for nearly four months during a similar quarrel. Tensions between the Baghdad government and the authorities in the Kurdish-ruled region in the north of the country have also been running high over a host of other issues, mostly to do with power-sharing in national policy-making, control over disputed territories and payments for the peshmergas, the Kurdish military force. Kurdish leaders say these are all fundamental issues that the Arabs have failed to resolve in line with the federal structure of Iraq agreed to following the 2003 US-led invasion that ousted former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein from power. The Kurds claim that the Arab leadership of the country has been reluctant to recognise the Kurds as the second-largest national grouping in Iraq and as their sovereign partners. They also accuse the Arab leadership, both Shia and Sunni, of trying to amend the post-Saddam constitution in order to scrap articles related to the federal system as well as those on the distribution of power and wealth. Iraqi Arabs also have grievances about the way in which the federal state is being run, claiming that the Kurds have been promoting their vested interests at the expense of those of other Iraqis. Some have alleged that the Kurds are edging closer to declaring their own separate state. A tour by Barzani to areas outside the Kurdish autonomous region and parts of the disputed areas last week drew sharp criticism from Arab politicians. His trip to the town of Khanaqin, some 160km east of Baghdad, came only a few days after hundreds of Kurdish soldiers moved into disputed areas of the volatile Diyala province, claiming that they were providing security to Kurdish residents. Rasim Al-Ogheidi, a member of the Sunni-backed Iraqiya List representing the Diyala province, described Barzani's visit as provocative and accused the Kurds of preparing to declare their independence. Last month, Arab lawmakers criticised the Kurdish government for receiving Jordan's prime minister in Erbil, the Kurdish regional capital, without prior consultations or coordination with Baghdad, a sign, they say, of Kurdish attempts to establish their own foreign policy. Earlier this month, Barzani chaired a meeting of Kurdish diplomats, a statement saying that the participants had discussed "long-term plans to improve diplomatic missions abroad". Speaker of the Kurdish parliament Kamal Karkukli was in Washington this week for talks with US officials about the Kurdish disputes with Baghdad, his office saying that he had told his hosts that the US should "exercise pressure on the [Baghdad] government to resolve the outstanding problems." One of the key problems between the Baghdad government and the Kurds has been the future of US troops in Iraq. Barzani, the Iraqi Kurdish President Jalal Talabani, and the Iraqi Kurdish foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari, have all called for American forces to stay in Iraq, a move the Baghdad government opposes. The Kurds are strong US allies, and they have long hoped that the US will act to ensure that the disputed areas in northern Iraq, and the oil and gas they contain, will be included within the autonomous Kurdish region. They also hope that the US will help protect them against any Iranian or Turkish threats. As the crisis over the oil and gas bill simmers on, Barzani has been holding meetings with Kurdish politicians to discuss a Kurdish response. After a meeting on Sunday, a statement posted on the Kurdish regional government website said that Barzani had insisted on committing the central Iraqi government to the constitution and existing power-sharing agreements. Nevertheless, some critics believe that the Kurds' latest standoff with the Baghdad government is the least of their problems. They accuse Kurdish leaders of playing a zero-sum game with al-Maliki, relying on possible support from the Americans and other western nations and betting on a weak government continuing in power in Baghdad. Such critics say that the Kurds have been progressively increasing their demands, such as claims to what they call disputed areas which are collectively larger than the autonomous region itself. As for the oil and gas fields, they note that the new law is also applicable to other regions in Iraq that have showed no objection to centralised supervision. Some Kurds also accuse the Kurdish leadership of miscalculations, forging alliances with Shia religious parties and ignoring secular-minded and liberal Iraqis who share a vision closer to their own. There are increasing signs that the Kurds are losing influence because of the new realities in Baghdad as the Americans prepare to leave and Al-Maliki gains in confidence. Both Iran and Turkey, the Kurds' traditional enemies who vehemently oppose Kurdish aspirations for greater autonomy, are also increasing the pressure on the Kurds.
