Shifting into second gear

The US cannot afford to rest on its laurels in the north. Galal Nassar ponders the ensuing cat-and-mouse chase in the south
The first phase of the Afghan war has ended well -- at least for US forces and their Afghan allies. Under the cover of heavy US aerial bombardment, the Northern Alliance (NA) has walked triumphantly into Kabul and other Afghan cities, sending the Taliban and its Al-Qa'eda friends on the run. As the war enters its second phase, US Special Forces are likely to play a crucial role in what could be a daunting game of hide-and-seek. The search for Bin Laden and key Taliban and Al-Qa'eda figures has begun.
As Bin Laden and many ousted Taliban leaders disappear into hiding, US commanders have sent hundreds of Special Forces to block possible escape routes, gather intelligence, and assist Afghan combatants in the arduous task of combing mountain routes and hideouts. Some 1,600 US marines are standing by, awaiting orders to join the 300-500 commandos already in Afghanistan.
The task of tracking down Bin Laden has been likened to finding a needle in a haystack. The US Special Forces have, therefore, sought the help of southern Afghan tribes in search operations. The Americans are also beginning to cooperate more closely with southern Pashtuns, who are more familiar with the mountain terrain in which Bin Laden and his lieutenants are thought to be hiding.
US commanders have ordered aerial strikes against mountain locations in the hope that these strikes would kill or ferret out the wanted men, sparing Washington the need to deploy more ground troops. US President George W Bush does not want to find Bin Laden alive. Bin Laden's death could spare the United States the complications of arresting, deporting and ultimately trying the man it says is responsible for the 11 September attacks.
US Special Forces ride horseback alongside Northern Alliance fighters; An NA fighter on the frontline before the fall of Kunduz waits for the inevitable (photos: Reuters)
This is why US planes fly daily bombing missions against possible mountainside hideouts. F- 15s are shelling cave entrances and pulverising limestone rocks with 5,000-pound GBU-28 bombs and 2,000-pound AGM-130 missiles. Meanwhile, unmanned Predators, the CIA- operated reconnaissance drones, hum silently in the skies, occasionally sending out laser beams to mark possible targets for US bombers. The US Air Force is planning to send 50 to 70 more warplanes to a Tajikistan base to assist in the new phase of the war and US Air Force engineers are inspecting various airstrips in Afghanistan with a view to setting up a new base for US commandos.
Pentagon officials believe that Bin Laden and key members of the Al-Qa'eda outfit are hiding in well-equipped bunkers, some containing several floors and multiple escape exists. These bunkers, dug into granite rocks and secured with steel doors, are thought to be located in mountain areas close to Jalalabad and Kandahar -- just where fighting is currently under way between the retreating Taliban and rival Pashtuns.
The rock harbouring these hideouts is so solid that ordinary shelling is of little use. Over the past few days, US forces have begun experimenting with new methods to bust the bunkers, exploring the possibility of guiding cruise missiles to infiltrate cave openings. Explosives may be detonated in a way that would suck the oxygen from the shelter and thus suffocate those inside. Laser-guided rockets can also be used to attack the caves, while reconnaissance planes equipped with thermal cameras and modern equipment could be used to detect the carbon dioxide exhaled by hidden fighters.
The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), which has deployed scores of Special Forces on the ground and is flying daily reconnaissance missions by unmanned spy drones, is waging a secret war in Afghanistan. CIA teams began arriving in Afghanistan on 27 September to prepare for the deployment of the rest of US Special Forces. Over the past few weeks, these teams provided valuable intelligence to the Northern Alliance and also pinpointed the concentrations of Taliban and Al-Qa'eda combatants.
The 150-man CIA team is mostly composed of retired armed forces personnel with extensive combat experience operating in squads of five or six members each. They are not distinguished by official uniforms. Equipped with helicopters and Hellfire anti-tank rockets, these teams are backed with reconnaissance drones. It is one of these drones that provided the intelligence, two weeks ago, that led to the bombing and killing of Al-Qa'eda military commander Mohamed Atef, also known as Abu Hafs.
The CIA has sent officers from the Middle East department to Afghanistan who speak local dialects and have well-established links with the Northern Alliance. CIA operatives in Afghanistan have forged close links with both the Northern Alliance forces and the Pashtun tribes in the south, thus establishing its presence in areas where the Taliban's authority was once unchallenged.
The Special Forces have helped guide the attacks since the aerial campaign began on 7 October. The task of gathering information and directing strikes requires a high degree of coordination between the CIA and the US Air Force. So far, military experts believe that this coordination has been successful and that no friction has surfaced between the two services. The CIA provides intelligence, including video images, to the military command and is in direct touch with the US general command in Tampa, Florida.
President Bush has defined the US mission as one that will deprive Bin Laden and Al-Qa'eda of their safe haven in Afghanistan. The administration has given the CIA an estimated $1 billion in funds to eliminate Bin Laden and dismantle Al-Qa'eda using all possible means.
Since the start of the current mission, the CIA has been providing military, financial, and logistical support to any Afghan group deemed capable of helping in the search for Bin Laden and his followers. A US psychological warfare division has been airing a radio message in various Afghan dialects promising a cash reward of $25 million to anyone providing information leading to the capture of Bin Laden and eight of his lieutenants. US planes have dropped some 20,000 leaflets bearing the same message in various parts of the country.
With the crushing defeat of the Taliban at the hands of the Northern Alliance and other opposition groups, it may seem that the Afghanistan campaign is drawing to an early end. Perhaps not, say the experts at the US Department of Defence. As US Special Forces begin chasing small groups of Taliban leaders and Al-Qa'eda members, it will become harder to gauge the progress of operations. Sniper fire, land mines, and even terror operations may take their toll on US personnel.
In the absence of clear frontlines, the war in Afghanistan is likely to take a turn similar -- in terms of tactics and, perhaps, duration -- to that of the guerrilla war in El Salvador in the 1980s. Small groups of US intelligence advisers will be working closely with local combatants to track down Bin Laden. In the case of El Salvador, where the target was Marxist militants, secret operations ran parallel to regular combat missions, and proved more effective. Some experts claim that CIA operatives have been working in Afghanistan for the past 18 months.
The Pentagon is still sending more troops, warships and planes to the region to boost aerial and ground operations in Afghanistan. As the war moves to the south, closer to the hideouts of Bin Laden and the Taliban, its nature is likely to change. Yet, US commanders will continue to follow some of the tactics that proved useful in the northern offensive. Intelligence will continue to play a prominent role and military plans will need to remain adaptable to available information.
The south, however, will pose a different set of challenges. For one thing, it is one of the worst land mine-infected areas in the world. The area near Kandahar contains deadly fields of anti-personnel mines. US troops, for all their sophisticated gear, have no means of clearing these land mines with sufficient speed before engaging their enemy. The southern Afghans are adept guerrilla fighters and, unless their loyalties shift to the US side, will prove to be tough adversaries. In addition, the southwest province, along the Hemland River, is a hotbed for opium production. The tribes involved in the cultivation of opium are well-armed and do not look kindly upon strangers.
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