Calm has prevailed over the borders between Sudan and Ethiopia following clashes that rendered many dead and wounded. Khartoum and Addis Ababa resumed amicable talks and it's back to business as usual between the two capitals. Several observers have opined that the two African countries on the River Nile “don't have the luxury for clashes, let alone a war”. Both Sudan and Ethiopia suffer dire economic conditions and fragile security that may blow up in the face of the two at any given time. Sudan has the same economic problems that drove the nation to protest for the toppling of the Omar Al-Bashir regime, and Khartoum is working towards lifting Sudan off the US list of countries harbouring terrorism, to attract investment that would save Sudan from poverty. Egypt's southern neighbour hasn't entirely frozen the civil wars in Darfur, south of the Blue Nile and Nuba Mountains in the south. There are also forces that may work to put hurdles on the road to peace. Ethiopia's economy is faring no better. The country was attacked by swarms of locusts that may bring back the phantom of the famine Addis Ababa barely escaped thanks to Western aid organisations. The Ethiopian state witnessed the displacement of more than a million people as a result of violence that took place in a number of regions. Furthermore, there are demands for secession and power and wealth sharing in Ethiopia that comprises around 80 ethnicities. By the end of the year, Ethiopia is slated to hold elections that may mire the country in further disintegration if the election results cede to protests or turn into clashes even before their onset. With the commencement of clashes between Ethiopia and Sudan, the two countries' public opinion saw skirmishes on several fronts. The scene was chaotic, suggesting wide-scale disintegration. In Sudan there were two opinions expressed by political and cultural figures in addition to partisan leaders, civil society and syndicates. The first, such as politician Abdel-Salam Al-Abadi, leader of a small political party, is of the opinion that the Sovereign Council, particularly its military leaders owing to their military creed, are loyal to Egypt and are engaged in a war by proxy against Ethiopia that is building the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia have gone through arduous rounds of talks on GERD that will decrease Egypt's Nile water share extensively, affecting Cairo's ability to adjust its food security — something Ethiopia denies. Such opinion is adopted by a number of Sudan's political figures who believe that distancing the Sudanese military establishment from the political stage could help them reach the helm. Sudan's army has been engaged in the political scene for a century when its officers embarked on the 1924 revolution against British occupation. Sudan's officers then executed a number of coups, three of which succeeded: in 1958, under the leadership of then military leader Ibrahim Abboud; in 1969, implemented by Jaafar Numeiri with the help of the left wing; and in 1989, which brought Al-Bashir to the presidency of Sudan with the support of the Islamists. The other opinion is supported by Sudanese irrigation and international law experts. They argued that Sudan's “unbiased” stance will only benefit it for a short while. Of this opinion are irrigation engineer Ahmed Negmeddin and Ahmed Al-Mufti, a professor of international law and member of Sudanese companies concerned with the Nile Basin. Much like Cairo, Khartoum's Nile water share was determined by the 1959 Agreement. If Sudan is to toe Ethiopia's line it will lose its share and there is no telling what it will gain. Most likely, it will not receive the same share — 18.5 billion cubic metres annually — it acquired according to the 1959 Agreement. On the other hand, the GERD may be damaged as a result of water pressure against its structure and the fact that it is being built on the edge of the Great Rift Valley. These factors herald possible catastrophe for Sudan. In tandem with these two opinions, the tone of animosity was rising against Ethiopia, supported by a social history of hostility between the two countries. Likewise in Ethiopia, hostility against Sudan was rising in English-speaking media outlets, albeit in a softer tone. Nonetheless, some people, such as Ethiopian oppositionist Jawar Mohamed, held to the belief that Sudan was engaged in a war by proxy against Ethiopia. Mohamed challenged Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to defend Ethiopia against the “Sudanese aggression”. Mohamed is posing as the defender of the Oromos, to whom belongs Ahmed. Mohamed is also demanding the utmost against neighbours “in an attempt to embarrass the authorities” in Addis Ababa. Ahmed had slammed Mohamed repeedly. In October 2019, Ahmed said in parliament: “Those media owners who don't have Ethiopian passports are playing both ways.” He added: “When there is peace you are playing here, and when we are in trouble you are not here.” Ahmed was referring to Mohamed, who holds a US passport. This said, the dust between Sudan and Ethiopia is beginning to settle, and not many observers are of the belief that the two countries are on the verge of war. However, tension prevails concerning the GERD that Ethiopia said it will start filling in July. Sudanese Minister of Foreign Affairs Asmaa Abdalla said Saturday, nonetheless, that Ethiopia will think twice before filling the GERD reservoir before an agreement is reached with Egypt and Sudan. *A version of this article appears in print in the 11 June, 2020 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
