ISTANBUL -The release of three senior retired Turkish military commanders on Thursday could help defuse a confrontation between the country's Islamist-rooted government and the secular armed forces. It was not immediately clear if the ex high-ranking officers could still face charges in connection with a plot to unseat the government. But their release from custody by prosecutors could, for the moment, bring a respite in a showdown that has rattled markets and fuelled talk of an early vote in the EU candidate country. How will the armed forces respond?
Retired air force commander Ibrahim Firtina, ex-navy chief Ozden Ornek and Ergin Saygun, a former deputy chief of general staff may have been freed on Thursday, but some 20 senior military officers have been charged and remanded in custody in connection with the "Sledgehammer" plot. The military's prestige has been damaged by the case. Turks have been riveted by the sight of once untouchable "pashas" being escorted to court, and analysts say things will never be the same for the military. The military's room for manoeuvre appears limited. The generals, self-appointed guardians of the secular state, have ousted four governments of various political persuasions over the last 50 years. The head of the army himself has said the days of coups is past and the passage of European Union-backed democratic reforms in recent years has made it increasingly unlikely that it could stage a similar political intervention. The military has been targeted in investigations into other coup plots over the last year so more detentions of top brass is possible. The Chief of the General Staff General Ilker Basbug will have been under intense pressure from within the ranks to uphold the prestige of the services. Basbug met President Abdullah Gul and Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan earlier on Thursday during a crisis meeting in which Gul assured Turks the country's problems would be resolved "within the framework of the constitution". Basbug, who has dismissed the alleged plots as part of smear campaign, is likely to stay away from making strongly worded statements -- at least for the moment. How will the government respond?
The government is keen to restore political stability and calm financial markets, as Turkish shares, the lira and bonds have all weakened this week on concerns about fallout from the dispute. The government doesn't want to scare off foreign investment, that has piled in to Turkey over the past decade. The ruling AK Party is banking on the economy recovering after a deep recession last year to boost its chances in general election due next year. Erdogan denied on Thursday speculation he planned to call a snap poll. He said his meeting with Gul and Basbug on Thursday went "very well", which analysts interpreted as an attempt to defuse tensions. Erdogan is likely to step up efforts to calm the situation, although past run-ins with the powerful military have benefitted the AK Party in the ballot box. The government is also engaged in a deepening row with the country's judiciary, the other main pillar of Turkey's secular establishment. The row centres on the detention of a prosecutor who had been investigating Islamist groups in eastern Turkey. However, the country's top prosecutor is currently considering whether to open an investigation into recent comments by AK Party deputies. Such a move could be a precursor to a fresh bid to ban Erdogan's party, which narrowly survived a closure case in 2008. Analysts have said an early election could become more likely if a closure case is opened.
