In contrast to the freezing streets of Copenhagen, Denmark, the UN Climate Change Conference (COP15) is hot with anticipation as the buildup for the historic conference culminates. The buzz is in the air and everyone is excited. But what exactly does this conference mean? And what is at stake for humanity as a whole? Over 15,000 delegates from 192 countries around the world will be attending the conference over the upcoming two weeks. Media interest is blazing. In fact, the UN stopped issuing media accreditation after they received more than 5,000 applications from journalists who want to cover the event. There are cameras everywhere and you can hardly find a seat in the gigantic media center. “Never in 17 years of climate negotiations have so many different nations made so many firm pledges together,†said Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). “So whilst there will be more steps on the road to a safe climate future, Copenhagen is already a turning point in the international response to climate change.†Over the past few months, hope for a successful outcome for the conference has been going up and down. But the president of the US, Barack Obama, pledging to join the conference, gave it a much needed boost. One of the main problems with the current Kyoto Protocol has been the fact that the US was not part of it. There is general agreement that another protocol that does not have the US on board is bound to fail. That is why everyone is hoping that the US, under new leadership, will be able to join the global community in countering the threat of climate change. But John Hay, media relations officer with the UN secretariat, was quick to point out that expectations need to be realistic. “The emphasis has switched from a sense of having a binding legal decision to getting a very strong political deal, as well as a set of actions to counter climate change,†he told Bikya Masr. But this is not a failure of the conference, since it will ensure quick action to counter the eminent danger starting as early as 2010. “This package must be wrapped up legally in six months or so too,†he added. De Boer confirmed that immediate action needs to begin on several levels. Developed countries need to start reducing emissions, while developing countries will need to have plans to adapt to the inevitable effects of climate change. He also touched on many of the sticking points of the discussions, including financing developing countries to develop low-carbon economies, as well as technology transfer and reducing deforestation. Technology transfer is a hot topic during the discussions. New technologies will be essential for decreasing carbon dependence as well as adaptation plans in developing nations. However, the industrialized world holds the technology, and is better poised to develop it under further research. The US argues that any agreement that violates intellectual property rights (IPRs) would hinder innovation. But poorer countries are calling for more flexibility, especially with the most vulnerable countries. Another issue is finance transfer. According to the World Bank, developing nations will need around US$400 billion every year for mitigation. But so far the developed world has pledged a small percentage of that. And while they want the money to go to the vulnerable countries through present systems such as the World Bank, developing countries are asking for a new system where the money is distributed locally. But how bright – or gloomy – do things look on the ground? Negotiators now have the clearest signal ever from world leaders to craft solid proposals to implement rapid action,†said de Boer. But up until now, most of the negotiating text is still not agreed upon by the different parties involved. The different groups in the discussion, ranging from the EU to Association of Small Island States (AOSIS), are all trying to further their own agenda. Basically, it is built on winning as much as possible and losing as little as possible. In fact, James Fahn, executive director of Internews’ Earth Journalism Network, comments that we can expect a walkout by the African Group or AOSIS before the end of the first week of COP15. But right now, all options are on the table. The air is full of excitement and millions from every corner of the world are holding protests, asking world leaders to adopt a fair and ambitious climate agreement in Copenhagen. COP15 can yield anything from no agreement, to a legally binding new “Copenhagen Protocol.†All cards are on the table at this stage. So for now, people can only hold their breath and continue their call for action. And amidst the freezing weather of Denmark, it is important to remember that a 2 degrees Celsius increase in global temperature hold catastrophic effects for the most vulnerable and poorest people in the world. **Yehia is the Health and Science Section Editor for Islam Online. BM
