There has been much talk the last few weeks concerning US-Egyptian relations. The NGO raids have triggered a wave of criticism from Washington directed towards the Egyptian government. Washington's rhetoric has been tough, but the United States cannot afford to lose Egypt as a strategic partner; hence, will not cut the $1.3 billion. Yes, there have been some tensions between Egypt and the United States. Many experts in Washington have been talking about the end of US-Egyptian relations. But, these tensions have been exaggerated. Some, like Steven Cook, have even gone as far as to claim “Egyptians are serving divorce papers.” I disagree with these conclusions. Just two days ago, Gen. Dempsey met with Field Marshal Tantawi and they had some good laughs. The United States cannot let go of Egypt's military as they did with former Egyptian President Mubarak. President Obama was hesitant of letting Mubarak go back in February 2011. It would be even more difficult to let go of Egypt's military, and cutting the $1.3 billion in aid would signal such a move. Publicly, the United States might be exerting public pressure, but behind close doors I am sure there are major decision-makers worried about the consequences of a deterioration in US-Egyptian relations. The regional developments over the past year would make it a blunder, from a US national security standpoint, to sever relations with Egypt's military government. With the regional developments in Iran, Syria, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, the United States cannot lose any strategic partners in the Middle East. We have to acknowledge that it might be morally right to cut the $1.3billion of US tax-payer money from a government that is cracking down on US organizations promoting the democratic principles, which the Egyptian uprising demanded. But, the political realities are far broader and complex. The United States will never compromise its national security interests over moral principles. There are many examples that exemplify this argument; foremost US-Saudi relations or Guantanamo. For decades, US national security interests prioritized stability over democracy in Egypt and across the Middle East. According to Congressional records, Egypt has received over $70 billion in military and economic aid, since 1948. Egypt's aid is based on the 1979 Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty and its main purpose is to enhance security on the Sinai border. The United States supported Hosni Mubarak, a dictator, not because it was the morally right thing to do, but rather, because national security interests were the priority. The deteriorating security concerns in Egypt and in Sinai are indicators that Washington will not cut the aid from Egypt's military. As Netanyahu said in May 2011: “Egypt is having a hard time realizing its sovereignty in Sinai,” and “international terror organizations are stirring in Sinai and their presence is increasing due to Sinai's connection to Gaza.” Does it seem logical, from a United States national security stand point, to cut aid to Egypt's military at such a critical moment in history and undermine the national security interests of two key allies? The answer is: No. Furthermore, the Muslim Brotherhood is one heart-beat away from power. Both, the United States and Israel do not feel comfortable to completely embrace the Muslim Brotherhood. Several members of the Muslim Brotherhood have expressed views and visions that provide discomfort in Israel and Washington. This is why, the Egyptian military can depend on Israeli diplomats and AIPAC's Pro-Israeli lobby to make the case to US lawmakers and Washington's decision-makers not to cut Egypt's $1.3 billion in aid. In an election year, the Obama administration will not have the political feasibility to stand against AIPAC nor create tensions with Israel. Let me conclude by saying it is unfortunate the Egyptian government has cracked down on the NGO's, and I hope the NGO incident gets resolved quickly. But, drawing conclusions that this is the end in a long-standing strategic relationship is just overblown. Egypt will remain a strong ally of the United States and we are witnessing a bump in the relationship. If the United States cuts the aid, it will not guarantee the release of the NGO workers, and it will hurt the national security interests of the United States, Israel, and Egypt. It was after all President Barack Obama who said: “I will continue to believe that Israel's security is paramount.” ** Adel El-Adawy is a research assistant at the Middle East Institute and a Master's student in Political Science at American University. BM ShortURL: http://goo.gl/mVjhl Tags: Aid, featured, NGO, SCAF, United States Section: Egypt, North America, Op-ed
