On Saturday, December 18, 2010 a large group gathered in Sidi Bouzid, a small town in the Tunisian heartland, to demonstrate against a corrupt, ossified government and express solidarity with Mohammad Bouazizi, a young fruit seller whose self-immolation the day before symbolized the frustration and disillusionment of millions of young Arabs around the Middle East. Twenty-seven days later Tunisian president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fled the country. The Tunisian Revolution facilitated protests throughout the Arab world, led to the overthrow of autocrats in Egypt and Libya and inspired the current revolts in Syria, Yemen and Bahrain. More than nine months after Ben Ali left office millions of Tunisians participated in the Arab Spring's first elections on October 23. Despite a byzantine electoral process, 90% of registered voters, 80 political parties, 1,600 lists and 11,688 candidates participated in elections for a 217-member constituent assembly that will be given one year to draft a Tunisian constitution, establish a system of governance and create a bill of rights that will be subject to a popular referendum. Although males headlined every major party list, election rules stipulate that females hold approximately 24% of the seats in a future Tunisian parliament. Currently, 21% percent of the U.S. Congress is female. Ennahda, a moderate Islamist party, won 41% of the vote and 90 seats in the constituent assembly. Two secular, center left parties also performed well: The Congress for the Republic Party (CPR) earned 30 seats and Ettakatol won 21 seats. With the exception of riots in Sidi Bouzid to dispute the disqualification of the Popular List party, Tunisians refrained from demonstrations after the announcement of the election results. Some secular parties complained about vote buying and media and election commission biases towards Ennahda but international observers found a strong commitment by organizers, administrators and voters to free and fair elections. The successful elections portend a bright future for Tunisia. Its well regulated electoral process, promotion of moderate Islamism, rejection of polarization and engagement with the international community provide a model for future Arab democratic transitions and serve as a harbinger for a prosperous, stable country. Three Middle East experts confirmed that conclusion on October 28 when they met at the New America Foundation in Washington, DC to discuss the significance of the Tunisian elections. Paradoxically, well-financed parties fared poorly in the elections. The Free Patriotic Union (UPL) created after the ouster of Ben Ali by Slim Riahi, a wealthy 39-year-old businessman, failed to energize voters and earned only one seat on the electoral commission. “The Tunisian electoral law provided for a very tightly regulated electoral process,” said Leila Hilal, director of the Middle East Task Force at the New America Foundation. “It impacted the actual outcome, in particular, because there were controls on campaigning and financing.” Tunisians rewarded well-organized political parties that engaged voters and built local and regional political networks. Ennahda relied less on its financial resources and more on personal and family networks and door-to-door canvassing to earn the support of voters. It also posted observers in thousands of polling stations around the country. “[Ennahda's] victory proves that voter outreach works,” said Stephen McInerney, executive director of the Project on Middle East Democracy, a non-profit organization that supports democratic reform in the region. “The places on the ground where they invested the most are where they performed the best and won seats they didn't expect to pick up.” Direct engagement with citizens, the formation of local and regional party structures and the rejection of financial influence are all characteristics of a fair and transparent political process and provide a strong foundation for a successful Tunisian electoral system. Ennahda advocates a moderate brand of Islamism and had long history in Tunisian politics—the party finished second to Ben Ali's Constitutional Democratic Rally (RCD) in the 1989 elections—before Ben Ali promptly banned Ennahda and exiled its leader, Rachid Ghannounchi, to London. Ennahda maintains a close relationship with Turkey's ruling Islamist party, the Justice and Development Party and promotes an extensive, 342 point Western-style political platform and a liberal, free-trade economic agenda. Following its victory, Ennahda pledged to allow women to work in government, uphold democratic principles, honor all of Tunisia's international treaties and refrain from the imposition of an Islamic dress code. Ennahda also benefited from the marginalization of Salafist parties. Tunisian election authorities banned Hizb ut-Tahrir, a pan-Islamist Salafist party, from participating in the elections. Many Salafists have condemned Ennahda and claimed it is too moderate. “The Salafists have criticized Ennahda as not a real Islamist party and a creation of the West,” said Daniel Brumberg, a senior advisor to the Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention at United States Institute of Peace. Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood are the two most prominent Sunni Islamist organizations in the Arab world; as a result, Westerners hold overwhelmingly negative views of Islamist parties, which they believe are incompatible with democratic values, pluralism and free societies. If Ennahda fulfills its promises it would serve as an imitable model for other Arab political parties, a powerful example to the West of a responsible, practical and sensible Islamist party and allow for increased investment, educational opportunities and political freedoms. Ennahda's pledge to promote pluralism presents an unprecedented political situation in the Arab world: A possible alliance between Islamists and secularists to create a framework for a new constitution and system of government. “We stress once again that we wish to cooperate with all parties without any exclusion. We are open to all political parties inside the assembly and outside it, as well as civil society bodies such as the great Tunisian trade union and other unions,” the party said in a statement. “We are in talks in order to form alliances based on a shared economic, social and political program.” Secular parties, such as the Progressive Democratic Party, that criticized Islamist groups performed badly in the elections. Conversely, secular parties such as CPR and Ettakatol that promised to work with Ennahda and their Islamists rivals polled better than expected. “We don't want an ideological war between secularists and Islamists…I am profoundly convinced that we can promote human rights and women's rights without fighting against Islamists,” said CPR representative Moncef Marouki. It appears that Tunisian voters rejected the polarization and schisms that have long characterized Arab politics. However, it is imperative for the constituent assembly to draft a constitution that protects democratic ideals and human rights and creates a political and economic system that engages marginalized populations in the Tunisian interior. If economic problems persist, anger towards elites in prosperous coastal towns and cities will grow and regional, educational and class divides will become more prominent. The maintenance of national solidarity and prevention of political and sectarian fractures that have long plagued Arab nations are essential for a successful and stable Tunisia. Tunisian political parties have also sought international assistance and expertise, specifically U.S. aid, trade and investment. Although the U.S. is despised throughout the Middle East, it is quite popular among Tunisians—the Peace Corps is set to return to Tunisia for the first time since 1996. “Tunisia is unique in the Arab world in that across economic and sectarian lines, there seems to be a rather unique consensus about wanting to see a stronger relationship with the United States,” said McInerney. “The Islamists and secular leftists want a better relationship with the United States; that contrasts very strongly with other Arab countries which are afraid of U.S. interference.” U.S. popularity in Tunisia derives from its role as a foil to France, the long time bête noire of the Tunisian people, which ruled Tunisia as a colonial power from 1881 to 1956. Although French repression in Tunisia did not reach the levels seen in neighboring Algeria, the French government maintained close ties with the Ben Ali regime and enthusiastically supported secular parties during the elections, which reinforced Tunisian animosity towards its former colonial master. Tunisia should benefit politically and economically from a close relationship with the United States and Europe. Non-governmental organizations will train political parties in the practices of democratic governance and build the civil society institutions characteristic of a free society. Tunisia is a liberal, educated country—its literacy rate is 74.3%—and spends an extraordinary amount on education. In 2007, Tunisian education expenditures totaled 7.1% of GDP, which ranked first among Arab states and 15th in the world. Although Tunisia is faced with a litany of economic problems, only 3.8% of its population lives in poverty. By contrast, Egypt spends 3.8% of its GDP to educate its youth—which ranks 109th in the world—and its poverty rate is 20%. Tunisia's GDP per capita is more than 50% higher than Egypt. Due to European financial problems, Tunisia's tourism industry may falter in the interim and impede short-term economic growth. However, Tunisia's intellectual capital, proximity to Europe and engagement with international corporations and foreign governments should make it a competitive player in the global economy. A Tunisian proverb intones, “The multitude is stronger than the king.” The Tunisian multitudes toppled King Ben Ali and now control their fate. They possess the electoral processes, political parties, national ethos and international outlook necessary to build a successful country. Whether they fulfill their promise is up to them. BM
