Cairo - A new report documented the expansion of terrorist group 'ISIS' in Afrca. Dr. Joseph Siegle published his thoughts on this topic on Africa Centre for Strategic Studies (ACSS). Siegle , director of (ACSS), thinks battlefield setbacks in ISIS's strongholds in Iraq and Syria since 2015 raised questions of what impact this will have for ISIS's African aspirations. In a previous study, the Africa Center for Strategic Studies has identified 5 major categories of militant Islamists groups in Africa. ISIS-affiliated groups emerged in Tunisia and Libya in 2014, shortly after ISIS's rise in Iraq and Syria. However, the roles of these two affiliates have differed significantly. Tunisia has served as a key recruitment pipeline for ISIS into Syria through Ansar al Sharia in Tunisia. Some 6,500 Tunisians—more than any other outside country—are believed to have traveled to Syria and Iraq, the majority of whom are presumed to support the jihad there. ISIS setbacks in Iraq and Syria could result in a significant reverse pipeline of Tunisian fighters returning to Tunisia and fostering instability there. While Ansar al Sharia has been responsible for a number of high-profile attacks in Tunisia (and to a lesser extent Algeria) in recent years, for the most part Ansar al Sharia's significance has been its facilitation of the flow of fighters to the Middle East. A large influx of returning experienced fighters, however, could change that. These fighters would have the capabilities and cultural familiarity to potentially create a formidable and sustained destabilizing force in Tunisia. Thus, Tunisia appears to be the African country most closely linked to ISIS's viability in Iraq and Syria. In Libya, the seizure and defense of Sirte has been the most publicized activity of an ISIS entity in Africa. However, ISIS does not enjoy significant homegrown support in Libya. Instead, ISIS drew aggressive and sustained resistance from Libyan militias intent on dislodging what they saw as a foreign and rival presence—efforts that were eventually successful. Reports suggest that some ISIS fighters subsequently fled south to regions southwest of Misrata. A regrouping of the remnants of ISIS elements in Libya would likely serve as a magnet for other ISIS fighters displaced from Iraq and Syria. However, the viability of any ISIS-linked groups in Libya is more a reflection of the absence of a capable central governance authority, rather than an indication of the local support that would be needed to sustain their presence.
