A dramatic alarm was raised at the meeting of the Syrian opposition umbrella group in exile, the National Coalition, in Istanbul. The scheduled meeting was convened in order to choose a new president for the embattled group, which has seen internal divisions and factionalism damage its credibility and reputation both within the ranks of rebel fighters as well as regional and global backers of the opposition. The alarm bell, this time, was ringing to warn about the imminent fall of Aleppo, Syria's 2nd largest city and its industrial hub, back into regime hands. A plea was made yet again for arms and support to be sent to Aleppo's rebels before it was too late. While the regime's offensive in Aleppo is nothing new, the last month (July, 2014) has seen dramatic gains for the Syrian army backed by various local and regional militias, against an increasingly weakening rebel force, comprised mainly of Islamist factions of various affiliations and ideologies. The most prominent of whom being the Muslim Brotherhood affiliated and Qatari backed Liwa' el Tawheed, with the Al Qaeda sanctioned Jabhet el Nusra playing a crucial role in the defense of the various front lines around the province. The regime has recaptured the strategically important Shiekh Najjar industrial zone, and seems poised to push ahead and take the infantry academy too, a move which will see it effectively surround and besiege rebel held areas of Aleppo city. Such strategies have worked well in the past in Damascus and Homs, forcing rebel capitulations and ceasefires there. The build up to the current offensive has been months in the making, with regime forces pushing steadily through from the south to surround Aleppo, while a relentless campaign of high altitude barrel bombing has devastated the eastern rebel held suburbs of the city, forcing the majority of their inhabitants to flee. The ISIS has also been pushing into Aleppo province from the east's strongholds in Menbeg and Al Bab, and seems ready to launch an offensive to the north too, reminiscent of its last attack on the area when it captured large parts of the northern countryside stretching from Izaz near the Turkish border, right down to Hrietan just a few kilometers outside Aleppo, and some neighborhoods inside Aleppo city itself before being pushed back and ultimately expelled. Recent ISIS gains in the eastern province of Dier Ezzor have seen Al Nusra almost completely routed from the province, with several commanders of the Western backed FSA as well as Al Nusra defecting over to the ISIS. An increasingly jittery regional and global climate, shocked by the ISIS's sweeping gains across Iraq has meant that the flow of weapons, money and men to rebels has been greatly curtailed; this at a time when the ISIS is flush with cash, arms and fighters and steadily becoming an irresistible magnet for radicals and extremists from all over the world. The announcement of a Caliphate by the group has further bolstered its image as a can-do organization which gets results on the ground, and that has mass appeal for the new generation of Jihadist fighters, eager to put their ideology into practice. To add to the Aleppo rebels' problems, reinforcements sent from the Liwa' Dawud battalion, a member of the Islamist Jaish el Sham faction in Idleb province, have reportedly defected and pledged their allegiance to the ISIS. Those reinforcements might well spearhead the ISIS assault against their former allies. Defections like these have the rebel leadership very worried indeed. As the ISIS threat draws near, many groups may be tempted to switch sides and join them, preferring to become an ally with the most powerful faction, or simply to avoid a grizzly and brutal fate. All this has been very bad news for the various rebel factions aligned against the ISIS throughout Syria, including its ideological Siamese twin, Al Nusra. The loose alliance of Islamists battling the ISIS since early this year has seen some of its gains against the group rapidly reversed, and is staring at an imminent escalation as the ISIS goes back on the offensive. Already the group has struck in The Ghouta around Damascus, where the Saudi backed Jaish el Islam leader, Zahran Alloush made a fiery speech rallying his men against them, saying that fighting them now was more important than fighting the regime. A very revealing stance, which reflects the Saudi's nervousness and desire to confront extremist Islamic groups in the region militarily, as they pose an imminent threat to the kingdom; something which was clearly illustrated in a bold attack at a border post with Yemen this week. This shift in priorities from toppling the Syrian regime to fighting the ISIS and other radical Al Qaeda affiliates via proxy was further shown by Obama's request for 500 million dollars to train and equip vetted moderate Syrian rebel groups. In other words, to build up an army which can confront and defeat the gravest threat to U.S interests in the region, manifest in the ISIS, not the Assad regime. These developments have the opposition, and rebel fighters facing an uncertain future. This shifting regional strategy may bring unlikely alliances to the fore, such as Saudi and the U.S working with the Iranians, even the Syrian regime. Already, the Syrian army has launched airstrikes against several ISIS targets in the east of the country, something which it had previously not done, preferring to leave the group largely unmolested. It is not entirely inconceivable that regional rivals may put their differences aside for now in order to confront their mutual foe and shared menace, the fledgling Islamic State. This leaves the Syrian regime in a very comfortable position indeed. While the opposition and rebels despair, Damascus finds itself in a position of renewed regional influence, even leverage. With room to breathe, it has capitalized on this by a series of steady gains on the battlefield. Assad can rest assured that his regime's survival is guaranteed in the short term. So long as there are graver threats to the region, no one will be seriously considering his removal. In fact, he is now free to play the role of valuable ally in this latest round of the "war against terror", and will no doubt be eagerly eyeing this opportunity as a possible gateway to his rehabilitation back onto the international arena. But the stakes this time around are very high, and go far beyond diplomatic maneuvering and brinkmanship. The ISIS is not an amateurish or trifling threat, it is a very real and growing danger to regional stability and global security, and must be dealt with decisively and swiftly. It may be the strangest of ironies that the Syrian regime's survival is guaranteed by its bitterest of enemies.
