The Kosovan unilateral declaration of independence constituted yet another gargantuan Western blow to Serbian self-esteem, writes Gamal Nkrumah The Serbs everywhere are feeling sour, and for good reason, too. Against a backdrop of bloodshed and ethnic cleansing, Kosovo won its independence unilaterally -- that is on paper. In reality, the Kosovo parliament would never have voted for unilateral independence without unrestrained Western support. The West, on the other hand, seemed cavalier about the political language used by the Kosovars. The violence and anger will not burn themselves out. Serbian resentment is likely to be exacerbated in the next couple of months as Kosovo is granted all the trappings of full- fledged independence. The leaders of Serbia, whatever political and ideological strand they belong to, will be obliged to bow to the nationalist mood of their people. The Serbs have, once again, been humbled by Western powers. Yet this has been far from a rout. Serbia's leaders have been sounding out some nationalist notes. Serbia's economy is sputtering. The Serbs have vented their frustration over Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence by setting fire to Western embassies in the Serbian capital Belgrade. Western capitals have warned of the dire consequences. The Europeans are no longer eager to embrace a Serbia that is far from repentant. Older methods still work too and some Western powers have even threatened the use of force. Yet, most Western leaders openly state that they need not sully their own fingers in the Serbian quagmire, one incidentally of the Western leaders' own making. As far as Western powers are concerned, Slobodan Milosovic might be physically dead, but his poisonous spirit lives on. Still, Kosovo is not a country that will burn brilliantly for a moment and then fizzle out. Kosovo is here to stay. We can even contemplate the moment when the Serbs and Russians, through gritted teeth, will announce their recognition of an independent Kosovo. However, much depends on precisely how Kosovo's independence will be defined. Is Kosovo to be integrated into the European Union as an independent, predominantly ethnic Albanian but essentially multi-ethnic, state? Or, will the Kosovars be united with their kith and kin across the border in Albania? If so, then the ethnic Serbs of Kosovo also have the right to join their brethren in Serbia -- and this has de facto taken place. Across the world, the televised images of Serb nationalists in Mitrovica, Kosovo's second largest city and a town divided along ethnic lines, was the rubicon. There is good reason for thinking that the Serbian nationalist mood will last for a long time. There were no easily enforcible ways for outsiders to impose sensible solutions on Serbs. The West's history of intervention in the Balkans weighs heavy. Kosovars are today the beneficiaries of Western intervention, the Serbs the obvious losers. The Ibarski Kolasin, ethnic Serb enclave of northern Kosovo, is effectively functioning independently of the Kosovo administration and plans to join Serbia. This can hardly be denied them in light of the present Albanian triumphalism. A bloody and bankrupting dead end is no alternative for Serbia, and from the word go, Serbia's president insisted that there would be no military retaliation. Serbs cannot afford another war. And, the writing was on the wall: the demographic shift over the past 30 years compounded by the NATO invasion and actions of the Kosovo Liberation Army mean that now 90 per cent of Kosovo's two million population are ethnic Albanians. They do not feel part of the Serbian nation, and do not feel obliged to pay allegiance to Serbia. This is an especially sticky moment for Serbia. It leaves the Serbs more vulnerable than ever. Kosovan independence is surely not an event to gladden Serbian hearts. Defenders of Kosovan independence stick to the textbook. Kosovo was an autonomous region of Serbia, and technically it had the right to secede, they argue. Still, many countries around the world fret about the likely impact of Kosovan unilateral independence. The world worries that even if Serbia survives this crisis, more are in the offing. As long as there are ethnic and religious minorities in the new Balkan states there is always the threat of further strife and conflict. Neighbouring Montenegro, the tiny Adriatic nation that also wrenched independence from Serbia, has inched closer to Europe. Serbia, on the other hand, has failed to sign a stabilisation and association agreement with the EU. Serbia, locked into a marriage of convenience with Europe from which it may soon become impossible to retreat, is at the crossroads. It lies at the heart of one of the most jumpy parts of Europe. Its neighbours to the east and north have joined the European Union. Some of these neighbours such as Romania are sympathetic to Serbia, and not just because the Romanians are Orthodox Christians. Religious affiliation might be a factor, but the real reason for Romanian commiseration with the Serbs for the loss of Kosovo is that Romania itself has a large Hungarian minority. The same applies to Bulgaria which is not only Orthodox Christian, but also has a large Turkish Muslim minority. Others like Greece are Orthodox or Spain that does have Basque separatists. The Kosovo question has proved a hard sell Revealingly, Cyprus (another predominantly Orthodox Christian nation) elected its first Communist leader, Dimitris Christofias, this week. Cyprus is one of the EU nations that proved to be sympathetic to the Serbian cause. The unilateral independence of Kosovo is controversial precisely because it might incite other disgruntled autonomous regions in Europe to seek unilateral political independence. Eastern Europe is especially susceptible. The political future of Serbia augurs ill if the popular protest and unrest in the country and among Kosovo's ethnic Serbs continues unabated. This would be terrible not just for Serbia, but it also threatens the well-being of the entire Balkans. Yugoslavia was a country where a medley of ethnic groups, mostly Slavs, lived together. The Yugoslavs were mainly separated by religion -- the Serbs Orthodox Christians; the Croats and the Slovenes Roman Catholic; the Bosniacs Muslim. It was the religious differences, which masked wider cultural specificities, that ultimately led to the dismemberment of Yugoslavia. It was the desire of the Germans to nab the economic pearl of Yugoslavia -- Slovenia -- that accelerated the movement to dissolve Yugoslavia, which was by no means an inevitable development, if Europe and the US had had any foresight at all. There were also the non-Slavs -- the Hungarians of Vojvodina and the largest non-Slav ethnic group of the former Yugoslavia the Albanians of Kosovo. The Albanians were saddled uncomfortably with Serbia, the heartland of the former Yugoslavia. They did not quite relish their autonomous status within Serbia, and with the dismantlement of Yugoslavia, their hopes for an independent Kosovo soared. It was, however, the direct military intervention of the United States with European backing that lent a definitive legitimacy to the Albanian cause. The Serbs could not stand up against Western military might, and their traditional allies, the Russians, were not in the game at that point. Russia, in spite of diplomatic backing, let the Serbs down. Russia, after all, was no longer a superpower and could do nothing in the face of Western intransigence. The West wanted an independent Kosovo. Why? Whatever the reason it is by no means philosophical. There are many in Serbia and elsewhere who suspect that Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence is simply a wheeze to advance Western interests in the Balkans. The key problem, however, is that the Balkans today is composed of states that have a dominant ethnic majority and a motley of ethnic minorities. Take the case of ethnic Serbs. The vast majority of Serbs reside in Serbia. However, ethnic Serb minorities are located in Macedonia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Bosnia and Croatia. Moreover, most of the Serbian minorities in these countries are to be found in areas where they constitute a majority within a confined, territorially-defined geographical area. The bulk of the population of the Serbs of Kosovo is found in a narrow strip of land bordering Montenegro and Serbia. Another problem with Western intervention is that it strengthened instead of softening the winner-takes-all attitude of the Kosovars, the Bosniacs and others. On the contrary, the Serbs, unfortunately, were on the receiving end. It is no surprise, therefore, that most Serbs believe that they were singled out for victimisation. The Serbs, who saw themselves as the chief champions of the former Yugoslavia, were now relegated to the status of an ethnic state. Serbia, in other words, was no longer an "empire". It is reduced to a mere ethnic state like any other Balkan political entity. The Serbs are understandably deeply resentful. They are in much the same position as the Russians find themselves in, albeit Russia's predicament is on a much larger scale. Perhaps that explains the deep affinity between the Serbs and the Russians. Both see Western expansionism at their own expense as the great catastrophe that resulted from the collapse of the former Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War. The swaggering Russian influence in the Balkans is a good riposte to the sneering about Russia gone soft. This seems to be the hard lesson that the Serbs have learnt. Still, many Serbs want to stick it out with Russia. Others, would like to see closer cooperation with Europe once the passions inflamed by Kosovan independence die down. Just as Kosovan independence united the Serbs, the irony is that as Serbs come round to accepting Kosovan independence no matter how grudgingly, the real battle for Serbia's soul might come into sharp focus. Pro- Western Serbian President Boris Tadic and his chief opponent Tomislav Nikolic and his Serbian Radical Party represent conflicting camps. The two camps, those for Europe and the West, and those for Russia, will fight it out to the bitter end. The fight could get dirty, with rival foreign powers intervening. The future Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev is currently in Serbia with a delegation holding talks with Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica concerning a pipeline deal. "The declaration will cause the most negative consequences for all other regions in the countries where questions of independence exist," Medvedev somberly concluded.
