A report by the Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics divides opinion on the accuracy of its divorce rate findings, reports Reem Leila The Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS) issued a report to coincide with International Youth Day on 12 August reflecting the condition of young people in Egypt. The report, covering the 18 to 29 age group, tackled a range of issues, including divorce, which it estimates affects 40 per cent of couples within the age range. The figure, which many experts have questioned, made headlines, with alarm over the fate of Egypt's family life dominating media commentary.The report also noted that 10 per cent of the age group covered had not attended school at all, while 27 per cent failed to complete basic education. The age group comprises 18.7 million people, or 42.3 per cent of the total population, and is almost equally divided between males and females. The report found that unemployment rates among the young had increased to 22 per cent. Sociologist Salwa El-Amri, of the National Centre for Sociological and Criminological Researches (NCSCR), believes that actual figures are often higher than official records. She points out that 45 per cent of divorces in Egypt happen in the first five to seven years of marriage. "When marriage is easy, so is divorce," she says. "A successful marriage requires emotional maturity and the ability to forgive." El-Amri believes the high rates of divorce are connected to growing unemployment. "Unemployment forces young people into illegal migration, crime and drug dealing," she argues. Mahmoud Ouda, former head of the Sociology Department at Ain Shams University, argues that the figures are an exaggeration, pointing out that according to a study conducted by the West Asia and North Africa Council, an international NGO providing research and information on population, divorce rates in Egypt have decreased. "The divorce percentages mentioned in the recent CAPMAS report are not comprehensive. They apply to a specific age group. I do not have accurate figures about divorce rates over the past two years, but it's hard to believe that a century-long trend has suddenly been reversed," he says. The absolute number of divorces has increased, Ouda adds, but that is because the population is mushrooming. "When people don't understand how statistics work they can get very worried. These new figures have alarmed everyone. But if we put them in a historical perspective they are less alarming." Seif El-Etrebi, a judge at the Family Court, agrees with Ouda. "The number of divorces has increased simply because of the population growth," he maintains. "CAPMAS officials copy out figures for divorce cases without analysing them," he says. "The recent CAPMAS report is not an accurate indication of divorce rates in Egypt. Many of those who file for divorce simply change their mind, are reconciled with their spouses, or else their cases are rejected by the courts. There are also men who take advantage of their right to repeal a divorce within three months of it being obtained. If figures are to be taken seriously they have to be professionally analysed and studied, taking marriage and birth rates into consideration." "Many social factors contribute to an increase in divorce rates," says Azza Kurayyem, a sociologist at the NCSCR. "And I expect the figures to continue to escalate if society does not alter its attitudes towards marriage." Emotions and mutual understanding, she says, are largely overlooked when marriages are planned. "This leads to a flimsy marriage that stumbles as soon as problems begin. Marriage has also failed to keep pace with women's expectations. More and more women who get married are employed. They are no longer seeking a breadwinner and a shelter, but rather a loving and understanding husband, a wish that can never be fulfilled given the way marriages are currently handled."
