On a drive to disarm Sadr ahead of provincial elections, Al-Maliki proposes that militias back none in politics except him and his allies, reports Saad Abdel-Wahab from Baghdad Armed confrontations flared up in Basra, Iraq's second largest city and oil hub, 25 March, between government forces and Shia leader Moqtada Al-Sadr's Mahdi Army militia. The clashes coincided with angry upheavals in several southern provinces, where Sadr supporters are spread. The clashes broke out hours after Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki announced a plan, named "the charge of the knights", which he said was aimed at the elimination of armed groups and outlaws in Basra city. The Sadrists believe the goal was to weaken their movement before provincial elections this fall. Sadr's followers expect to make major gains in the regional voting at the expense of Al-Maliki's Shia partners in government. Bahaa Al-Araij, a Sadrist lawmaker, said: "The battles in southern Iraq are a show of power aimed at sweeping rivals from the provincial council elections, due to be held in October." Sadr led two uprisings against US-led coalition forces in 2004. In August 2007 he declared a six-month ceasefire to purge the Mahdi militia of criminal and dissident elements. US officials have cited the truce, which Sadr recently extended, among the reasons behind a 60 per cent drop in violence since President George W Bush ordered 30,000 US reinforcements to Iraq early last year. But the ceasefire has come under severe strain in recent weeks. Sadr's followers have accused the Shia-dominated government of exploiting the ceasefire to target the cleric's supporters in advance of provincial elections, expected this fall. Sadr recently told his followers that although the truce remains in effect, they were free to defend themselves against attacks. Sadr followers have demanded the release of supporters rounded up in recent weeks. US officials have insisted they are not going after Sadrists who respect the ceasefire, but are targeting renegade elements, known as "special groups", that the Americans believe have ties to Iran. The pattern of recent attacks against the US- controlled Green Zone could be a signal to the Americans and their Iraqi partners to ease their pressure against mainstream Sadrists and/or the so-called "special groups". Analysts fear that Iraqis may be about to witness a new phase in the cycle of violence that has gripped the country since the US-led invasion in 2003: intra-Shia bloodletting that could tear Iraq apart and more deeply embroil US forces. "It will be a short honeymoon, especially with election time coming up," said Mustafa Alani, an analyst at the Dubai-based Gulf Research Centre. Provincial elections are due to take place in October, with the Sadrists, who boycotted the last polls in 2005, vying for control of the mainly Shia, oil-producing south with a powerful rival, the Supreme Islamic Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI). "The stand-off is not over yet, it's only a truce... provincial elections will trigger the battle again," said Hazem Al-Nuaimi, a political analyst based in Baghdad. "Al-Maliki is basically preparing for the election. He needs to disarm Sadr. The strongest militia in the city will control the vote," said Alani. Al-Maliki flew to Basra to oversee personally a military operation he said was aimed at "cleaning up" the lawless city, which is controlled by gangs and militias allied to various Shia political parties. The operation was lauded by US and British officials as evidence of the growing strength of the Iraqi army, but by the weekend it had largely stalled, with Iraqi troops failing to dislodge gunmen from their strongholds. The fighting provoked a furious backlash by Mahdi Army fighters in other towns and cities in the oil-producing south. Hundreds have been killed in violence that Iraqi security forces have struggled to contain without US military help. Gareth Stansfield, a professor of Middle East politics at the University of Exeter, said that Al-Maliki had staked his political credibility on the show of force in Basra and lost. "Al-Maliki's credibility is shot at this point. He really thought his security forces could do this. But he has failed," he said. SCIRI, headed by Abdul-Aziz Al-Hakim, the biggest Shia party in government and an ally of Al-Maliki's Daawa Party, is battling for control of Basra in an often violent turf war that pits it against Sadrists and the smaller Fadhila Party, which controls the local oil industry. Sadr aides say the Mahdi Army will not give up their weapons, raising the prospect of another confrontation, as the Iraqi army says it will press on with the Basra operation. Moqtada Al-Sadr, who is believed to be in Iran furthering his religious studies, looks victorious amid political manoeuvring by Shia parties in government. "Clearly Sadr has gained a victory. This was not a fight he picked and his forces looked strong. He has consolidated his position," said Stansfield. "The Sadrists may have been strengthened in many people's minds. Many have seen the battle as unfair," said Reidar Visser, a Norwegian political expert. The crisis has been seen as a test of the Iraqi government's ability to eventually take over responsibility for its own security. The US-led coalition has a minimal presence in Basra after British forces turned over responsibility for the area to Iraqis in December. Iraq's major Shia, Sunni and Kurdish parties have closed ranks to pressure anti-American cleric Sadr into disbanding his Mahdi militia or face being barred from political life. A first step proposes amending a draft elections bill with language banning parties with militias from fielding candidates in provincial balloting this fall. "We want the Sadrists to disband the Mahdi Army. Just freezing it is no longer acceptable," said Sadiq Al-Rikabi, a senior adviser to Al-Maliki. "The new election law will prevent any party that has weapons or runs a militia from contesting elections." Such a bold move risks a violent backlash by the Mahdi militia. If it succeeds, however, it would mark a major realignment on Iraq's political landscape. US officials have been pressing Iraq's government for years to disband the militias, including the Mahdi Army. All major political parties are believed to maintain links to armed groups, and previous efforts to disband them have failed.
