While Putin's legacy sets the framework for his tenure, President Medvedev appears more pragmatic than his predecessor, writes El-Sayyed Amin Shalabi* Handpicked by Boris Yeltsin, Vladimir Putin acquitted himself well in Russia's top job, which he held since 2000. Some would say that he outdid his mentor. Yeltsin ruled over a country (1991-2000) where standards of living were dipping, economic growth grinding to a halt, and corruption and crime spreading. Yeltsin's policies weakened the once mighty Russian army, aligned the country with the West, and generally undermined Russia's international standing. Putin inherited from a president who was often drunk or ill a country oft-described as a "sick man". He moved fast to consolidate the central authority of the state and restore its control over economic institutions and strategic capabilities. He also clamped down on business tycoons, known as the oligarchs, who had amassed great wealth and power since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Regional rulers, who were on the verge of going independent, were also brought under control, with Putin replacing them with well-trusted aids. Putin focussed on developing Russia's energy and gas resources, especially the state-run Gas Brom Company. The investment paid off and subsequent rises in oil prices helped propel the economy into seven per cent annual growth. Soon, the Russian economy was the ninth largest in the world. The country paid off its foreign debts in full as GDP jumped from $200 billion in 1999 to over $1.3 trillion today. The rise in standards of living boosted Putin's popularity, with satisfaction over his performance reaching 70 per cent in polls. While boosting the capabilities of the Russian army and navy, Putin charted an independent foreign policy for the country. Forging closer ties with both China and India, Putin renewed friendships across the Middle East and Latin America while calling on the West to show more respect for his country. He opposed the expansion of NATO and objected to a US plan to install missile bases in Poland and the Czech Republic. However, Putin came under fierce criticism from US and Western circles and even inside his own country because of his record on democracy. Pointing to his tendency to control the media and restrain parties and civil society organisations, critics called him the new tsar. Some claimed that much of the economic progress that took place during his years was linked to the boom in oil prices, a phenomenon that may be short-lived. Putin earned the enmity of the US and the West while failing to maintain Russia's close ties with the members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, the organisation that replaced the Soviet Union. Consequently, orange revolutions brought pro-Western government to Georgia and Ukraine. So how different is Russia going to be under Dmitri Medvedev? Many observers believe that Putin, who is now prime minister, will continue to have a major say in Russian politics. The Kremlin and much of the country's administrative apparatus are stacked with Putin's appointees who are unlikely to shift their support to Medvedev, at least not in the next year or two. As prime minister, Putin will retain control over the economy. And although the Russian constitution allows the president to dismiss the prime minister, Medvedev cannot do so without the consent of the Duma (the lower house of parliament), which is dominantly pro-Putin. Medvedev is generally seen as a liberal, but it is unlikely that he would take the risk of liberalising the press, the economy, or the security apparatus right away. Nor is he expected to take a more liberal policy towards the West. As Russian commentators point out, the new generation in the Russian bureaucracy may be intellectually pro- Western, but they are conservative nationalists otherwise. In other words, they admire Western culture, but would like to keep the West at bay. The new Russian president is also seen as a pragmatist, meaning that he may start exploring areas of common interest with the West. In other words, Medvedev's Russia may try to impress the world not with its muscles but with its commonsense and achievements. Much, however, will depend on Western reactions. * The writer is executive director of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs.
