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Double or quits
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 23 - 04 - 2009

Different strokes for different folks. Sudan complains of double Western standards, notes Gamal Nkrumah
It has all been rather unfair. Political heat is on Khartoum to become more like Ethiopia. That is to shed off contentious regions -- like Eritrea, in Ethiopia's case -- so that presumably it can function more smoothly. Sudan is also urged to follow the Ethiopian example and adopt a federal system of government that gives a certain measure of political clout to the outlying regions. In much the same vein, and taking its queue once again from Ethiopia, Sudan is egged on to collaborate more closely with the West.
Ethiopia and Sudan share a 3,000km-long border. Countries do not get to choose their neighbours. But if Sudan has a choice, it would have no more ideal a neighbour than Ethiopia. Much of Sudan's waters comes directly from the Ethiopian Highlands, and arid northern Sudan is utterly dependent on the waters of the Blue Nile, the silt-laden river that originates in northwestern Ethiopia's volcanic rugged mountain peaks. Egypt, too, is dependent for 85 per cent of its fresh water on Ethiopia. The country, therefore, is of critical strategic importance to its neighbours.
The cardinal fact in Ethiopian politics is that the kitty is empty. Sudan, however, is awash with oil and it seems that Khartoum wants to create more wealth as opposed to just simply consume. As we, Sudan's neighbours, agonise about Sudan's woes we should remember that Sudan -- Africa's largest country in geographical terms -- cannot only be read correctly within the regional context. Ethiopia, like Sudan, is a country of unresolved conflicts. However, Ethiopia is a country of 85 million people, multiplying at one of the fastest population growth rates in Africa and the world. It also has the largest standing army in numerical terms in Africa south of the Sahara, and for what its worth, the most numerous cattle herds, and, of course, fine coffee.
It is against this backdrop that Sudanese President Omar Hassan Al-Bashir flew to the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa on Tuesday for a two-day meeting of the Ethiopia-Sudan high- level joint commission to discuss with Ethiopian Prime Minister Menes Zennawi various aspect of their relationship, respective domestic challenges and mutual regional concerns. US and EU locally-based diplomats pointedly boycotted the celebrations marking Al-Bashir's visit. Envoys from China, Cuba and Venezuela joined their Arab and African counterparts in welcoming him.
Al-Bashir insists that Sudan's fate be in its own hands. Others suggest that the country's fate isn't actually in its hands. What is more, the attitudes of its neighbours will ultimately determine the course of events in Sudan. Al-Bashir is convinced that at least five of Sudan's neighbours have a vital stake in its future and particularly that of northern and western Sudan -- Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Chad and Libya -- not necessarily in that order.
The theory has been torn to shreds by the Sudanese opposition. The leader of the opposition Popular Congress Party (PCP) Hassan Al-Turabi, Sudan's chief Islamist ideologue and former parliament speaker, was stopped from travelling abroad for medical treatment of ailments accrued during his sojourn in jail for political reasons. He is today one of the Sudanese government's most outspoken critics and hence his frequent incarceration.
The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against President Al-Bashir -- the first against a sitting president. This, the sixth foreign trip by Al-Bashir following his stopover in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, is yet another affront to the ICC and Western powers.
He is also struck by the importance of Ethiopia to his strategy of reversing the Western embargo on Sudan. He knows that he has the tacit support of regional powers. Like-minded leaders are doubtless working behind the scenes to mediate between Sudan and the West. As far as Al-Bashir's indictment by the ICC is concerned, the Sudanese president understands that most of his neighbours with the possible exception of Chad are sympathetic to his cause. Neither Ethiopia nor Sudan are members of the ICC.
Special Presidential Adviser Mustafa Othman Ismail was dispatched to Paris for talks with French and British Sudan old hands. The expulsion of 13 international aid agencies by the Sudanese government has complicated matters. Sudan is now calling on Arab and Muslim aid agencies to step in and fill the vacuum. "France is an especially important country because it hosts Abdel-Wahid Nour and has a special relationship with Chad," the presidential adviser told reporters in Khartoum prior to his departure. The Darfur armed opposition groups are not convinced that the Sudanese government seriously means business.
In the meantime, southern Sudan is seething with tension. Fighting erupted between two ethnic groups -- the Nuer and Murle peoples -- in Akobo County, Jonglei State, southern Sudan. Jonglei State, a vast swampy area the size of Austria and Switzerland combined, has been the scene of pitched battles between rival ethnic groups battling over cattle, the main source of income and symbol of wealth and social prestige in southern Sudan. The Murle warriors apparently came with guns in a revenge attack and massacred innocent Luo Nuer villagers. An estimated 180 people were butchered in the fracas that followed.
"What we have seen recently are attacks on civilian settlements, not just cattle raiding," warned David Gressly, regional coordinator for the UN peacekeeping mission in southern Sudan. "This is a new dimension that I find worrisome." In March some 750 people were massacred in Pibor County, Jonglei State. "It is a situation that needs to be de-escalated relatively rapidly, before we see a further deterioration in the situation there," Gressly observed. Jonglei is awash with arms. Gressly, who was speaking at a press conference to reporters in the southern Sudanese administrative capital Juba, stressed that the entire region is on the brink of ethnic strife.


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