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The future of south Sudan
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 06 - 08 - 2009


By Abdallah El-Ashaal
Finally, the long-running arbitration over Abyei is over. The dispute over Abyei is rather unusual in that it is domestic and yet has gone to international courts. The reason is that Abyei can go north or south once a referendum is held in Sudan in 2011. If Abyei decides to join the south in an independent state the oil fields near it may be lost to the north Sudanese forever.
As it turned out, Abyei is not entitled to the nearby oil. A court in The Hague has decided that the oil fields in question are outside Abyei's borders. Consequently, Abyei's motivation to join the south has diminished.
The whole thing started in the Naivasha talks in Kenya in 2004, when the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) insisted that Abyei and the nearby rich oil fields were part of the south. Everyone suspected that the SPLM wanted to secede and was trying to run away with as much wealth as possible.
Still, the SPLM accepted the final ruling issued on 22 July 2009 by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague. Its officials refrained from criticising the ruling, but the way they feel about Abyei may end up influencing the outcome of the 2011 referendum, crucial as it is for the future of a united Sudan.
An earlier attempt by a committee of experts failed to resolve the matter. When the dispute was first referred to international jurists in The Hague, they dispatched legal experts to the region, asking them to file a report. The experts looked into available documents and poured over maps as they tried to draw the borders in several Ngok Dinka areas that had been affiliated with the Bahr Al-Ghazal province but were given to the Kordofan province in 1905.
The report issued by the committee was contested by the southerners, so everything went back to higher judiciary authorities in The Hague. The Sudanese government was thrilled when a tribunal in The Hague gave it the oil rich areas near Abyei. Commenting on the ruling, Sudanese officials said that the decision would help maintain the country's unity. Some would say, however, that until the 2011 referendum is held, the grounds for optimism are shaky.
This week's Soapbox speaker is former assistant to the foreign minister.


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