With conflict intensifying between the Yemeni government and the Al-Houthi rebels, it seems that both sides are digging in their heels for a war of attrition, writes Nasser Arrabyee in Sanaa The humanitarian situation is worsening in northern Yemen, especially after pleas for even a temporary ceasefire in the one-month-old conflict that has been taking place in the country going unheard this week. Relief organisations have also been denied access to thousands of people affected by the intensification of battles between rebels and government troops. Internally displaced persons (IDPs) from previous rounds of the conflict, which started in 2004, are now estimated to stand at some 100,000, with relief teams not having access to those inside Saada province because the rebels are blocking the road in the Harf Sufyan area. On 2 September, the UN said in a flash appeal that it would need $23.5 million to help about 150,000 Yemenis affected by the conflict over the coming four months. According to estimates made by relief organisations, about 50,000 more IDPs have spilled out into the three neighbouring provinces of Hajja, Amran and Al-Jawf during the most recent round in the conflict, which erupted on 10 August. Naseem Ur-Rehman, chief communications and advocacy officer at the Sanaa office of UNICEF, estimates the IDPs in Amran province at 28,000, those in Al-Jawf at 8,000, and those in Hajja at 16,000. The IDPs are living in camps or in scattered dwellings. Luckier ones are living with relatives or members of extended families. Yet, "the IDPs are strangers in their own land," Ur- Rehman commented in an interview with Al-Ahram Weekly after a four-day visit to the Al-Mazarak refugee camp in Harad district of Hajja province this week. "They look horror-stricken, and they have often come a very long way. The frightening experience of lingering conflict has stayed with them, and it can be seen in their eyes." "Children have been even more affected by the trauma," he added. "The camp, about 20km from the town of Harad, is in a vast open space with few trees and it is directly open to the sun's heat." A total of 320 families (2,000 IDPs) are living in the camp, and about 16,000 more are living in scattered dwellings and host families, said the UNICEF official. Despite the escalating violence, for the time being at least the Yemeni government seems to have the necessary internal, regional and international support for its campaign to crush the rebellion. In addition to internal tribal support, religious figures have also announced their support for the government's military campaign against the rebels. "What's happening in Saada is undoubtedly armed rebellion against religious, national, and constitutional prescriptions, and it contains strange ideas that contravene the Quran, sunna [the Prophet Mohamed's teachings] and the unanimity of the umma. It is hostile to the companions of the Prophet Mohamed," said Yemeni clerics in a statement issued by the Yemeni Association of Clerics, which includes clerics from different religious sects. The clerics demanded that the government put down the revolt and arrest the rebel leaders. Ordinary people in Yemen, too, seem less sympathetic to the rebels than they perhaps have been in earlier rounds in the conflict, no longer believing rebel claims that they are defending themselves and believing instead that the Al-Houthis are aiming at expanding their agenda. For his part, the rebel leader, Abdel-Malik Al-Houthi, described the Yemeni clerics as being "the clerics of a tyrant" on Monday. On the regional level, the secretary-general of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Abdel-Rahman Al-Atiyah, said after a meeting with Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh in Sanaa on 4 September that "the GCC stands shoulder to shoulder with the unity, security and stability of Yemen, and the security of Yemen is part of the security of the GCC." US President Barack Obama also said in a letter delivered by his counter-terrorism adviser John Brennan to President Saleh on Sunday that the United States would "stand beside Yemen and its unity, security and stability." "Yemen's security is vital to the security of the United States and the region, and America will adopt an initiative to help Yemen face development challenges and support reform efforts," the letter said. However, the country's opposition parties have taken a more nuanced view of the conflict, the main opposition parties, known as the Joint Meeting Parties (JMPs), calling for national dialogue to take place in order to escape from the current crisis. The JMPs, which include Islamists, socialists and Nasserites, said in a 90-page document called Vision for National Rescue, that individual rule was at the root of the crisis, with the current conflict being only part of it. Observers, however, say that the opposition parties do not have a wide following in Yemen, which remains largely tribal and conservative. "The opposition parties want to rescue themselves from their crises, yes, but they do not necessarily want to rescue the nation," commented Ahmed Al-Sufi, a political analyst. For his part, Sultan Al-Barakani, assistant secretary- general of the country's ruling party, said of the opposition parties that "the nation needs rescuing from those who speak about its rescue." In reply, Mohamed Al-Sabri, a leading figure among the opposition JMPs, said that the parties offered a "historic vision to rescue the nation and to escape the crisis in Saada and the south." Nevertheless, it has only been recently that the JMPs have announced a clear-cut position towards the conflict in Saada. "They have been waiting for the results of the conflict to become clearer before expressing themselves," said Abdel-Janadi, a political analyst. On the military level, the Yemeni army is currently preparing a major operation against the rebels, military sources saying that this is expected to start during the coming days. Meanwhile, government aircraft and artillery have continued to bombard the main rebel strongholds in Dhyan, Mutrah and Naqaa. Based on intelligence information, the army has implemented special operations over the past few days, with helicopters targeting rebel leaders and their supply chains. Six leaders have been killed and two others arrested from the "most wanted list" of 55 published by the government at the beginning of the conflict. In reaction, the rebels executed 10 children and six women from families believed to be supporting government troops in the Thuaib area east of Saada city last week. Dozens of people are now being killed and injured daily from both sides in battles taking place on three main fronts. The rebels have been trying to gain control of the city of Saada over the past two weeks, with their supporters inside the city clashing with troops in the streets of this city of 60,000 people. Military experts say that the conflict could come to an end if troops succeed in fighting the rebels in Harf Sufyan, where rebel positions in the high mountains overlooking the road between Sanaa and Saada threaten government movements. The third front in the conflict is in Al-Malahaid, west of Saada, where the rebels have been trying to block the road between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Troops in Harf Sufyan were reinforced this week with three brigades of crack soldiers expected to carry out the planned major operation. "We are just waiting for the go- ahead now," Yemeni military sources told the Weekly on Tuesday from Harf Sufyan. For their part the Al-Houthi rebels have vowed to continue their war of attrition after the government refused an offer of a ceasefire last week, insisting instead that rebel forces comply with the six conditions it set at the beginning of the conflict on 10 August.
