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Vladivostock: Quo vadis?
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 13 - 09 - 2012

Chipping at the foundations of Western hegemony, the recent APEC summit shifted attention from Ground Zero and 9/11 -- by way of Al-Qaeda -- to Asia's economic prowess, asserts Gamal Nkrumah
There is an aberrant irony to Asia's apathy when the candidly speaking somewhat asinine and incongruous subject of the martyrdom of Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden crops up at international forums. Asia's apparent indifference with the American media's depiction of Bin Laden's demise is glaringly lucid, quizzically quirky and all too transparent.
The permutations do not end there. Asia has precious little time for America's humdrum hubris -- whether Ground Zero or Guantanamo Bay -- and insipid jingoism. This insensitiveness to America's concerns time and again reverberates at international forums such as the United Nations.
Russia is charmed, nay bemused, with the powerlessness of Washington in the face of Asian economic prowess. Most Asian economies, regrettably with the notable exception of Japan, are growing at double-digit rates.
Surely, Asia is especially interested as to whether Mitt Romney or Barack Obama steps into the Oval Office come January 2013. However, Asian politicians tend to be realists and not necessarily idealists. They also are overall doctrine-averse and do not take kindly to dogmatism.
Russia's rhetorical leaps and pirouettes conceal a policy far more pragmatic with a revealed preference for Asia, in spite of being Europe's main oil and natural gas supplier. The European Commission's anti-trust investigation of the Russian natural gas giant corporation GAZPROM indicates that the omens are not auspicious. Russia, nevertheless, has the upper hand.
At any rate Russia's gaze is now transfixed on the Asia-Pacific Rim. Vladivostock in the Russian language loosely translates as "Ruler of the East". And, there is a whiff of exuberance around the Asia-Pacific Rim nations these days and few have time to deliberate on the implications of Ground Zero, 9/11 or even the Syrian crisis.
As far as watchdog barks go, Vladivostock was the venue selected by Russian President Vladimir Putin to host the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum (APEC). APEC -- a loose grouping which includes the United States, Canada, a number of Central and South American countries with Pacific coastlines such as Mexico and Chile, plus Russia and a host of East Asia nations. The summit, a sumptuous annual affair, brings together the leaders of some of the most dynamic and fastest growing economies in the world. The trouble is that the good fortune of the Asian emerging markets has not been shared equally.
The healthy pace of Asia economic growth belies differences between economies that are big and getting bigger such as Russia and China and others that are big, such as Europe, but are prone to deeper recessions with no recoveries in sight.
Certainly, there would be a historical neatness to a Russian-Asian economic pact. The gap between European and Asian economic growth rates cannot be ignored or underscored any more. And the broad thrust of Russia's foreign policy has been eastward. There is something incongruous about the prospect of a Sino-Russian pact -- a gaggle of Asian leaders emerged from the Vladivostock summit to pronounce plans for a prosperous Asia-Pacific century.
With neither bang nor whimper, the United States and emerging powers in the Asia-Pacific Rim nations and South America are coming to accept somewhat reluctantly that barriers to trade are creeping up.
Lots of nervous money is leaving crisis-stricken Europe and Asians are even the most intrepid of investors are transferring, depositing and entrusting their capital in Asia and the Pacific Rim countries. Under such circumstances, foreign direct investment in Asia is stimulating the vast region's economies -- in short, the Pacific has become the new focus of economic growth rather than the Atlantic.
Conventional wisdom about APEC has been turned on its head. None of the leaders who gathered in Vladivostock stood to lose much from the meeting. Except, perhaps President Obama, too busy with the upcoming US elections declined to go to Vladivostock. Obama dispatched Secretary of State Hillary Clinton instead.
Even that caveat is at odds with the rest of Washington's Asian economic and political partners. American officials have been thumbing their noses at their Asian partners. "Let me begin with our advocacy for American business. President Obama set the ambitious goal of doubling US exports worldwide by the end of 2014. And, we have made gains," Clinton assured her hosts and the audience at large.
To have a chance of retrieving the conversation, Clinton must grasp the nettle she had hoped she could avoid. It is a sensitive subject when she harks on about human rights -- in Vladivostock she focussed to the amusement of her mostly male Asian leaders on women's rights. Clinton drew the attention of her audience that 70 per cent of the companies in the emerging economies of Asia have no women on their governing boards. Restrictions on women's economic participation, according to the World Bank, costs the APEC region more than $40 in lost GDP.
To be fair, however, Hillary's was a dignified address. "American companies are eager to invest more in Asia," Clinton assured her listeners. Her Russian hosts were not particularly enthused with Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney deriding Russia as America's geopolitical enemy number one". Romney's brash remark smacked of highly offensive and bellicose language of the Cold War. "And, when they confront unfair regulations or if they just advice on local customs they just want advice on local customs they come to us at the State Department. And, we go bat for them," Clinton said in no uncertain terms.
There is no doubt that trade in the vast region has the potential to flourish in the years ahead. The European Union, struggling desperately to retain the august position of the world's largest free-trade area in terms of value, is acutely aware that promising potential free trade areas in Asia are in the pipeline. The West also detects a steady rise in trade barriers among the fast growing emerging markets of Asia.
Clinton called on China and its southeast Asian neighbours to "make a meaningful progress towards finalising a comprehensive code of conduct". Beijing doesn't appreciate American intervention in this maritime dispute.
That particular nuance matters now that Europe is embroiled in the euro-zone crisis. So, it was against this backdrop that Putin, in his trademark machismo showmanship, flew on his hand glider with a flock of crane over Siberia, and in Vladivostock got on reasonably well with Clinton.
Vlad in Vlad -- Vladimir Putin in Vladivostick -- was a phenomenon that Clinton warmed up to. It was not so long ago, in November 1922, American, Canadian and Japanese interventionist troops withdrew from Vladivostock where Bolsheviks won control of Russia's far-eastern free wheeling city. The location is stunning, overlooking the Golden Horn Bay -- no not Istanbul's or San Francisco, but equally compelling all the same.
So whose finger is on the trigger? The nations of APEC combined have no less than 41 per cent of the world's total population, and 55 per cent of the global GDP. Moreover, 49 per cent of the world trade emanates from APEC.
The Pacific Ocean Rim is an endless land of scattered riches and infinite cultural variety encompassing two continents -- Asia and the Americas -- or four if one designates North and South America, Asia proper and Australasia. The sprawling Asia-Pacific region, which has been growing at its fastest since the dreaded Asian financial crisis of 1997, is an area where the world's most sophisticated trade mechanisms flourish. Be that as it may, it is invariably difficult to draw a definite line that separates economics from politics -- especially when the leading nations of the region are poles apart ideologically. Geopolitical realities and historical legacies are taken seriously into consideration when assessing APEC.
The question is how to make the APEC summit's communiqu��s count. The resolutions were predictable enough. Russia, China and Australia, with sizeable and restive Muslim minorities, and the most populous Muslim nation on earth (Indonesia) at its doorstep, several APEC nations feel especially vulnerable to militant Islamist "terrorism".
The conundrum is that they do not all concur when it comes to the best method to contain the militant Islamist terrorist threat. The vagaries of the Arab Spring do not impact the political climate in East Asia.
Sniffing out business in the region is easy, but pinning down US President Barack Obama was not quite a walkover. He preferred to stay away, and rightly so considering the enormity of his task at home. Domestic issues take precedent. Foreign policy, and it will not dictate terms with Asia, is bound to move dramatically to centre stage once the presidential race is over and done with.
The economy has emerged as the most pertinent question as far as this year's American presidential election is concerned. The 24th APEC summit in Vladivostock coincided with another American pre-occupation -- just ahead of the sixth anniversary of 9/11.
Something is amiss as far as APEC is concerned. There are anomalies that result from the international financial crisis and in particular what is happening in Europe. The emphasis on reviving the Doha Round of World Trade Organisation (WTO) talks stalled for several years now was long overdue, the leaders of APEC stressed. Difficult decisions have to be made. An option might be to link the prosperity of the APEC nations with the economic clout of the emerging economies of Asia.
Europe is anile, pass��. Massive agricultural subsidies to farmers in wealthy countries especially the US and the European Union constitutes an enormous problem for the WTO. Restrictive industrial tariffs in emerging markets like Brazil, China and India are considered by many as another WTO challenge.
It is against this background that China, Japan and South Korea are working on a separate trade agreement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Washington, on the other hand, is trying to form a Trans-Pacific Partnership with Australia, Canada and Mexico among others. However, politics usually takes precedence the APEC summits, even though the event concentrates on the economic. Economics count, but it is clear that there were plenty of political undercurrents in Vladivostock.
Environmental issues also cropped up at APEC 2012. Indeed, APEC member states are also among the world's worst polluters with the greatest greenhouse emissions. Members like Australia, China and the US have persistently refused to sign the Kyoto Protocols. Indeed, some of the most economically dynamic nations of the region are among the world's worst polluters. Cash-rich Chinese companies are looking to make acquisitions that could book them further revenues, with no thought, whatsoever, for pollutants. Indeed, China and the US are the two most polluting nations in the world with hazardous greenhouse emissions.
APEC is neither losing the sparkle nor is it dysfunctional and at any rate the leaders of APEC are playing it cool.
Political issues such as the Chinese military build-up, Japanese unpopularity in East Asia, and North Korea's nuclear ambitions set the tone of the summit.
The 1.3 billion Chinese are a formidable force in Asia today and on the world stage.
Taiwan is another bone of contention that has long poisoned Sino-US relations. Again, the Chinese would not budge. Beijing regards Taiwan as a renegade province. They rejected US interference and objected to Taiwan's participation in any capacity at any future APEC summit.
Politics aside, Chinese and Russian companies are currently giving their American and Japanese rivals a run for their money. With the energy-hungry booming economies of APEC, the big pay-off for Russian oil conglomerates is not far off. The Asia-Pacific Rim nations are experiencing the much-anticipated economic resurgence. In short, APEC is displaying a unique resilience against touch odds.


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