The veteran diplomat Lakhdar Brahimi has taken over management of the international response to the Syrian crisis, but will he be able to find a political resolution Lakhdar Brahimi, a former Algerian foreign minister, has succeeded Kofi Annan as UN and Arab League special envoy to Syria, after the latter resigned citing failures among the members of the Security Council to reach a consensus on the crisis and the refusal of the parties on the ground to cooperate. After the announcement of his appointment, Brahimi said that "it is too early to comment on whether Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad should step down," shocking many in Syria since the demand for Al-Assad's ouster has been central to the majority of the Syrian opposition forces and most western and Arab states. The Syrian opposition has viewed Brahimi's comments as a signal that there will now be another round of missed deadlines and delays that could cause the deaths of hundreds more civilians in Syria and cause thousands more to be displaced, detained, or tortured. The largest Syrian opposition bloc, the Syrian National Council (SNC), demanded that Brahimi apologise for the remarks, Brahimi quickly clarifying that he had meant that it was "too early for him" to say anything about the nature of his assignment, as he had only just been appointed to the post. "Brahimi has successfully mediated several domestic and regional conflicts," Monzer Khaddam, spokesman for the opposition National Coordination Committee inside Syria, told Al-Ahram Weekly. "He is also from the region, knowledgeable about its problems, and well known for his integrity and patience. It would be difficult to accuse him of bias." "If reports that there are US-Russian efforts underway to sponsor an international conference that would impose a solution on the warring parties in Syria are true, then Brahimi will play a key role in this." However, SNC member Najati Tayara doubted that Brahimi would succeed unless he has a clear action plan and a comprehensive mandate from the UN Security Council. Tayara said that a solution to the Syrian crisis did not require special skills or expertise, but instead the ability to exert pressure on the parties. "We believe that Brahimi is starting a mission that is already dead in the water, or at least a mission impossible," he told the Weekly. "It's not a matter of skill or expertise, but the ability to put pressure. Annan failed because he was not given the real tools to put pressure on the Syrian regime, which is committing massacres on a daily basis against the people." Tayara disagreed that Brahimi would be able to accomplish more than Annan, saying that "there is absolutely no difference between the two. Annan was no less experienced, and saying that Brahimi is from the region and thus has better knowledge of conditions there means nothing, because Annan was also provided with experts from the region who are knowledgeable of conditions and circumstances there." "Yet, Annan was unable to implement a single one of the six points of his plan. Brahimi will only succeed if he is given enough power to exert pressure and is armed with a binding resolution on Syria based on a clear action plan from the Geneva decisions." The position of the National Movement for Change in Syria is close to that of the opposition political and military forces. "The regime's crimes are beyond any mediation efforts, initiatives and plans," the movement's spokesman said. "Only a miracle could bring Annan's plan back to the table, and Brahimi should not fall into the trap of buying time, something that the regime is trying by all possible means to achieve." The Syrian people "will never accept anything less than the overthrow of Al-Assad and his entire criminal regime, as well as the prosecution of those involved in killing the Syrian people. Brahimi must act within the framework of this popular demand and stop the ridiculous talk about a political solution. Everyone knows this is hopeless," he said. Brahimi has said that his priority will be "the Syrian people and their interests," but he has not outlined his plans or vision of how to resolve the crisis. The ideal solution would be if he were able to propose a roadmap that would be acceptable to the opposition and the protesters and that the regime would approve, ending the violence and massacres. However, no one has any idea what magic formula Brahimi could propose, especially since he has already said that he is worried that his mission will fail, as did Annan's. The UN has indicated that Brahimi will use a different approach to that employed by Annan, though Russia has insisted that he must launch a dialogue among the parties in Syria on the basis of Annan's six-point plan, the documents of the ministerial working group on Syria, and the relevant Security Council resolutions. Moscow's proposals have not ended the violence on the ground in Syria over the past 17 months because the regime, according to the Syrian opposition and the UN, has not committed itself to them and has continued its military solution. The Syrian authorities say that they are continuing to "cleanse Syria of terrorist groups" and battling "a universal plot" against the country. Meanwhile, French President François Hollande has told Brahimi that "there will be no political solution in Syria unless Al-Assad leaves," adding that the difficult task will be "to probe new horizons for the political transition in Syria." "France is committed to a free and democratic Syria that respects all its sects," Hollande said. Iran is trying to guarantee itself a role in any solution to the Syrian crisis, something that the Syrian public rejects, accusing Tehran of being part of the problem because of its military, logistic and financial support for the Syrian regime. The Syrian government has welcomed Brahimi's mission, asking him to call for national dialogue as soon as possible and insisting that Syria "will be victorious with its leader and government" and predicting that "the allies of the West" in the country will be defeated. The Syrian opposition is demanding an effective plan from Brahimi, as well as binding international guarantees. It has said that after nearly 25,000 deaths, the destruction of cities and villages, more than two million people displaced inside Syria and nearly half a million refugees in neighbouring countries, and more than 100,000 detainees, it cannot agree to a political solution that is not based on an immediate halt to regime violence and the removal of Al-Assad and the pillars of his regime from power. Father Paolo Dall'Oglio, the Italian priest whom the regime expelled from Syria after he had lived there for 30 years because of his support for the revolution, summed up the opinion of Syrian protesters regarding Brahimi's mission. "I fear that Brahimi, like Annan, does not understand that the Syrians cannot turn back the clock. They have started on the path of liberation that is called democracy." Dall'Oglio, who views himself as a Syrian citizen, told Brahimi that "we do not want you to serve a ceasefire, but to serve as a witness to the truth. If the international community agrees on restoring the rights of the Syrian people, we welcome your mission. Otherwise, we ask you to pack your bags right now because we have already paid the price in full." "Reconciliation can only be achieved in a democratic state that is mature in its pluralism and that guarantees a consensus that incorporates all sects. There will be no peace unless the people's rights are restored." Brahimi has met with Syrian opposition leaders over the past few days and commanders from the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA), in order to listen to their views on the transitional phase in Syria. He has also met with Hollande, the UN secretary general and other UN officials. "Avoiding a civil war is no longer possible," Brahimi said. "It's a matter of stopping it, since it has already started. Change in Syria is unavoidable -- serious and fundamental change that is not simply cosmetic. This change must meet the aspirations of the Syrian people." Brahimi has no guarantee that he will succeed in his mission, and he will be dealing with the same groups and individuals that Annan did -- the Syrian regime, the opposition, and regional and international forces. However, he will aim to change his approach by launching a new vision, perhaps by first launching a political dialogue on the regional level to ease confrontation between clashing regional powers. This could be followed by a dialogue on the international level, before turning attention to the domestic scene in Syria itself. Observers believe that Brahimi's success will depend on questions such as whether the time is right for a settlement and whether both sides are ready to negotiate in good faith. Brahimi is a veteran politician with a long career in dealing with crises that involve domestic, regional and international components and require patience, skill and wisdom to resolve. Nonetheless, he is notably uncertain of success this time, and he has said failure is a definite possibility.
