The countdown has started for Egypt's upcoming presidential elections amid fears of rigging. Gihan Shahine asks whether monitoring can guarantee fair polls Egypt's presidential elections start next week amid mounting concerns over rigging and a lack of transparency despite repeated pledges by the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) that the polls will be "100 per cent fair and transparent". Secretary-General of the Presidential Elections Commission (PEC), Hatem Bagato, had earlier announced that registered human rights organisations would be allowed to monitor the polls. Bagato said that the commission also asked organisations from 40 countries to monitor the presidential poll in Egypt on the grounds that "the Egyptian elections commission has nothing to hide," Bagato told the press. More than 30 local NGOs and three foreign organisations have been licensed to monitor the polls but it remains questionable whether monitoring will actually guarantee a fair vote. A number of human rights organisations had earlier announced they would not officially observe the polls under the auspices of the PEC in protest at what they described as highly restrictive regulations imposed on their work. The same organisations, however, said they will still monitor the polls, but not through the official PEC channels, which they say insists on turning monitoring into "a cosmetic" process that only attempts to add legitimacy to the balloting. "We refuse to play the role of an extra," human rights activist Mohamed Zarie told Al-Ahram Weekly. "The rules are very restrictive and, as such, will not allow observers to actually observe anything," Zarie said. The rules, according to Zarie, are even "more restrictive than those imposed on monitors during the 2005 parliamentary elections, when human rights organisations obtained a court ruling allowing them access into polling stations and a free hand to monitor the whole balloting process." This time, however, monitors will not be allowed access into polling stations during the balloting process for longer than 30 minutes and only if the judge in charge allows it. Neither will observers be allowed to oversee the final counting of ballots. "All those obstacles will definitely be in the way of giving an accurate assessment of the balloting process," Zarie complained. Even if monitors discover irregularities, the electoral law stipulates that monitors will not be allowed to report them to the media. Instead, according to the law, all such complaints should be reported to the PEC to handle. The law also stipulates that monitoring groups include PEC's official response to their findings in their final report. Hafez Abu Seada, secretary-general of the Egyptian Organisation for Human Rights, countered that monitors can still do a good job despite the obstacles. "Challenges are always there, but we can develop techniques to overcome them and monitor the whole process and report irregularities," Abu Seada insisted. Abu Seada argued that monitors do not have to remain in the polling stations for more than 30 minutes or attend the counting of ballots because "we will also depend on testimonies of candidate representatives and the voting masses." Monitors will also be busy observing other irregularities like vote buying and attempts on the part of some candidate representatives to influence voters to cast their ballots in their favour -- common practices in all previous Egyptian elections under former president Hosni Mubarak. If civil society reports an irregularity, Article 28 of the electoral law stipulates that the PEC decisions cannot be challenged in court, an article which resulted in the recent deadly clashes in Abbasiya. Legal expert and former chair of the State Council Mohamed El-Gamal insists that Article 28 of the interim constitution contradicts the principles of the international declaration of human rights and the international convention for civil and political rights. "Those principles make clear that no one and no decision should be immune from being appealed in court," El-Gamal told the Weekly. El-Gamal insists that it is totally in the hands of the SCAF to amend the article, without having to conduct another public poll, if it really intends on guaranteeing the fairness and transparency of the upcoming polls. Zarie agrees. "This article [28] grants the presidential commission a 'divine' power and intensifies fears that the elections may be rigged in favour of SCAF. It [the commission] is used as a scapegoat to bear the brunt of criticism in case the public is not satisfied with the results." Parliament recently introduced amendments to the electoral law that may help prevent vote rigging. Representatives of presidential candidates will be allowed to join the sub-committees of each polling station where votes will be tallied and to obtain a copy of the report with the results. This process, many believe, is likely to prevent vote rigging. The amendments also include banning the appointment of any PEC member in an official post during the next presidential term to guarantee the objectivity of the commission. Both El-Gamal and Zarie, however, insist that the amendments cannot protect against vote rigging with Article 28 in place. They argue that the counting of votes will be conducted by the presidential commission, and that no one will be able to contest the commission's final result if they do not match with those provided by the sub-committees. That means that the commission can easily claim the vote was in favour of a certain candidate without anyone being allowed to contest that in court, according to El-Gamal. The commission fuelled public suspicion when it reinstated former prime minister Ahmed Shafik as a candidate. Shafik had been barred under a law designed by the parliament and endorsed by SCAF to prevent senior officials in Mubarak's administration from running for the presidency. Shafik challenged the bill's constitutionality; the commission upheld his appeal. "The fact that the commission reinstituted Shafik, a figure from the former regime who had close ties with Mubarak, immediately raises suspicions about the objectivity of those at its helm," Zarie said. Human rights activist Negad El-Borai concurred. "It's all a farce," he scoffed. "Those who were part of the problem cannot be part of the solution," he added, explaining that those at the top of the presidential commission are the same people who supervised at least two previous notoriously rigged polls under the former regime. "How can we trust that the same people who allowed rigging before will allow a fair poll this time?" El-Borai asked. "Nothing has changed. We have to admit that the monster was only injured -- definitely not killed -- and is now back for revenge." El-Borai decided not to participate in the monitoring process since he is convinced that "there cannot be any transparent or fair polls in Egypt in the absence of both the techniques and the political will to have those polls monitored." He insisted that monitoring is almost useless when the government does not take reports into consideration or tries to correct irregularities. "Our job is not to inform the public, but to help the government correct irregularities," he insisted. The rhetoric about suspecting the results of the presidential poll can be dangerous in that it leaves the door open for whoever loses in the presidential race to claim that the polls were rigged. And that, in turn, could mean the presidential elections will not provide longed-for stability. Some Islamists decided to take matters in their own hands. Tarek El-Zomor of the Al-Gamaa Al-Islamiya said the group had drawn up a plan, in cooperation with other political parties, to mobilise the public not only to participate in the voting process but also to protect polling stations and ballot boxes from fraud. "We've been informed through our sources that there will be rigging of the presidential elections," El-Zomor told an Egyptian daily. "It might take place inside the polling stations or while announcing the results. "If what we fear happens, we will launch a second revolution that leaves none of the regime's remnants, purges society and avoids the pitfalls of the first revolution," El-Zomor said.
