One year has passed since the beginning of the Syrian uprising, already the longest of the Arab Spring, writes Bassel Oudat in Damascus A year has passed since the start of the uprising in Syria against the regime led by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, with nearly 10,000 civilians killed and more than 2,000 military dead in the ensuing crackdown. Syrian prisons contain some 30,000 detainees, and tens of thousands of people have been injured in the crackdown. Neighbouring countries now host some 25,000 Syrian refugees. Meanwhile, the regime of the ruling Syrian Baath Party continues its crackdown against the uprising, apparently seeing a security solution as the only means of dialogue with the protesters seeking freedom and dignity. On 18 March last year, children in the town of Deraa in southern Syria were inspired by the Arab Spring in other parts of the Arab world to write graffiti on the walls of their school that said "the people demand the fall of the regime". This slogan, used in the Arab Spring uprisings that had begun in Tunisia and spread to Egypt, Yemen and Libya, was unacceptable in Syria, and Syrian security services arrested the children, torturing them and refusing to set them free. The parents of the children then took to the streets of Deraa, demanding freedom and dignity for their children and for all the people of Syria. This ignited the first spark of revolt in what was to become one of the most violent and blood-soaked of all the Arab uprisings. The protests spread from Deraa to other Syrian cities, with demonstrators coming out in force against a regime that habitually suppresses all opposition by force. Since the beginning of the uprising, the security forces have used live ammunition against the demonstrators, rejecting any political resolution to end the crisis and turning down Turkish, Arab and European offers of mediation. As the regime escalated the violence against the protesters, their demands evolved from freedom and dignity to political demands that culminated in a demand for the overthrow of the regime. Not only has the regime relied on the more than 100,000-strong security forces to put down the uprising, but it has also brought in the regular army to suppress the protests, using heavy weaponry and artillery to end the demonstrations. Every Friday demonstration in Syria has been given a name, including the Friday of Dignity, the Friday of Martyrs, the Friday of May God be with Us, the Friday of Legitimacy, and finally the Friday of Arming the Free Syrian Army. In response to the protests, the regime has continued its violent course, while undertaking some token reforms. The country's emergency law, in force since the 1960s, was cancelled, but was later replaced by another that was not very different. The formation of political parties was allowed, but with stiff preconditions. And freedom of the press was accepted, but in reality it has been kept under the tight control of the security agencies. Finally, the regime decided to replace the Syrian constitution by a new one to be voted on in a national referendum. This was boycotted by most Syrians, but it was nevertheless introduced, giving the president powers that make him more powerful than any absolute monarch. The structure of the regime has not been changed, and all meaningful power is in the hands of the executive branch of government. Meanwhile, the regime has not spared efforts to crush the uprising, cutting out the larynx of singer Ibrahim Al-Qashush, for example, who sang songs supporting the uprising, and breaking the hands of cartoonist Ali Farzat, who had produced cartoons supporting the protesters. Graffiti artists have been killed and artists arrested for their support of the uprising. University students have been killed, communications cut, and power and water cut off from cities supporting the uprising as militia groups and the Syrian security forces wreak havoc within them. Recently, regime forces have started to use heavy artillery to attack rebel districts. Human rights activists say that the regime has committed crimes against humanity and war crimes. Since the outbreak of the uprising, the Syrian regime has claimed that there is a conspiracy against it, accusing the US, Europe, Israel, and the Arab countries of involvement in trying to end the "resistance" that Syria holds to in the region. It has accused the demonstrators of being terrorists and the agents of foreign powers bent on destroying Syria. For its part, the Syrian opposition, divided between the opposition inside and outside the country, has largely failed to lead the uprising or to make common cause with the popular movement leading the uprising in the streets. It has remained largely divided and has taken up contradictory positions on the question of possible foreign military intervention and arming the Free Syrian Army (FSA), composed of defectors from the regular armed forces, in order to assist it in combating the regime. Observers believe that one of the key next steps for the opposition will be for it to formulate a common vision of Syria's future and to strengthen mechanisms to achieve its goals. Some members of the opposition believe that it is now too late for a political solution, instead calling for foreign air strikes on the Syrian Republican Guard, presidential palaces and headquarters of the intelligence services, in order to protect civilians. On the military front, there have been defections by Syrian army officers to the FSA, which now numbers some 30,000 soldiers, according to opposition sources, though most of these are lightly armed and lack coordination and a central command. During the first six months of the uprising, the regime clamped down on the media, banning it from covering developments, though activists were able to get pictures of the violence out to the outside world by cell-phone footage and other means. Footage was produced of massive protests against the regime across Syria, as well as of women and children who had been killed in the violence and the destruction that had been left by security and military forces in different Syrian cities. The regime also arrested or expelled foreign reporters, with French journalist Gilles Jacquier being killed in a mortar attack in Homs in January and American journalist Marie Colvin and photo-journalist Remi Ochlik being killed in the bombardment of the Baba Amr district of Homs in February. Beginning in May last year, the US and the EU announced economic sanctions against the regime, as well as against senior government officials and public and private-sector companies supporting it. A ban was placed on the purchase of Syrian oil, the assets of senior regime figures were frozen, as were the assets of the Syrian Central Bank, and loans and development projects were suspended in the country. There have recently been signs of impending economic collapse as a result, with imports and exports dropping by nearly 60 per cent and the local currency losing about 45 per cent of its value. Prices have risen sharply, while production and distribution have stopped as demand has dropped and unemployment risen. The Syrian government is no longer able to supply fuel and electricity to all the country, and the UN has recently declared that nearly 1.5 million people in Syria are in need of food assistance. Since the first weeks of the uprising, the Arab states have attempted to mediate in bids to resolve the crisis. These attempts have been rejected, as have Arab League initiatives to resolve the crisis. Syrian membership of the regional body was suspended in November last year, and sanctions were later imposed. Arab and international pressure resulted in the signing of a peace plan on 19 December that allowed monitors on the ground in Syria, but the regime controlled their movements, one monitor later describing the mission as "a farce". On 22 January, the Arab League formally urged Al-Assad to step down as president and to hand power to his deputy, an initiative supported by the international community. Attempts at the UN to stop the violence were blocked by Russia and China, which used their veto power in the Security Council to prevent the passage of resolutions condemning the Syrian regime. Western countries subsequently withdrew their ambassadors from Damascus and shut their embassies. On 24 February, a conference of the "Friends of Syria" was held in the Tunisian capital Tunis, but its outcome was modest amid disputes about whether to arm the opposition or to channel support through political means. Former UN secretary-general Kofi Anan subsequently visited Syria as the special envoy of the UN and the Arab League with a mandate to discuss the possibility of reaching a political resolution. The Anan mission was rejected by the Syrian regime, and the opposition also rejected any dialogue with the regime if it did not first halt the violence and withdraw the army from Syrian cities. Russia and the Arab states last week approved a joint five-point plan to help end the violence. Under the terms of this plan, a neutral monitoring mechanism would be created, foreign intervention rejected, humanitarian aid delivered and Anan's peace mission supported in its aim of launching a dialogue between the Syrian government and opposition. Observers have described the move as a sign that Russia may now be changing its position on Syria, and it comes in the wake of a six-point proposal from China calling on the Syrian leadership to end the violence and start talks with the opposition. Meanwhile, there is little doubt that the security crackdown adopted by the regime has failed to break the will of the demonstrators, with protests having spread throughout the country and army defections being on the rise. Yet, in the light of the regime's refusal to enter into meaningful negotiations, it may be that the Syrian people have only another year of bloodshed and destruction to look forward to nevertheless.
