Seif's stroke of genius, Gaddafi goes underground, Tripoli partitioned -- or is it under NTC regimentation and if so why is NATO pounding Bab Al-Azizia, catechises Gamal Nkrumah Muammar Gaddafi cares deeply about his place in history. The best way to safeguard it is not necessarily to survive the NATO onslaught. He is even prepared to sacrifice his own sons. At any rate he understands that his political demise is bound to be an ugly spectacle. Gaddafi deliberately gave the impression that he had not thought the matter through. And, surprisingly, it is not too late today. He has not yet come to terms with the dynamics of defeat. It is not enough for Libyans to talk about wiping the slate clean. After a week of high drama on the Libyan Western front culminating with the storming of Tripoli by the Brother Leader's adversaries and the sensational stealing away by Seif Al-Islam from his captors, the signs are inauspicious. Gaddafi has squandered much of the leverage he once had in Libya and all Africa with empty promises and emptier threats. The ouster of Gaddafi will have little bearing on the epochal Arab political awakening. His political resilience and his probable survival with Spiderman-like gimmicks, however, will. Perhaps that was why the quintessential Gaddafi heir apparent, his second son Seif Al-Islam, after ridiculous rumours that he had been captured by the Liberation Army of the National Transitional Council (NTC), miraculously reappeared triumphant with a defiant smile proposing to treat foreign journalists to a tour of Tripoli. Battling Gaddafi may be easier to fit on a bumper sticker, but residue Gaddafi networks have proven that their franchise holders are hiding in Tripoli and other stronghold of the Brother Leader such as his hometown Sirte, a city of 140,000. And, of course, there is the strategic Sebha with a population of 130,000, in Fezzan, southern Libya, an important military and airforce base and springboard to neighbouring African countries such as Algeria, Chad, Mali and Niger. In essence, Gaddafi's current strategy seems to be to use what remaining troops he has at his disposal and tribal reinforcements, imagined or real, to unfurl a security umbrella over his beloved capital Tripoli and Gaddafi strongholds such as Sirte and Sebha. The regional dimension of his shrewd scheme is not particularly problematic. The fact that the NTC's ragtag Liberation Army has stormed Tripoli does not mean that the time for Gaddafi to relinquish power is over. It does not mean that the Brother Leader is on his way out. And, neither does it imply that he will on his way into the NTC anytime soon without finding a way to appeal to disgruntled elements of the Libyan population and in particular the country's youth who compose more than three quarters of Libya's seven million people. Plenty could yet go wrong for Gaddafi. But his gamble has put his dwindling band of devoted followers in a reasonable place. The Superman-like resurgence of Seif Al-Islam, his impunity and disparaging remarks about his supposed captures is testimony to the family's political acumen and adroitness and sheer tenacity. The details of Gaddafi's survival plan are still emerging. It is, of course, too early to say if it will not alter according to fast changing circumstances. How the NTC deals with the Gaddafi diehards will be a litmus test in the days to come. The NTC leaders were speechless and seemed as confounded as their NATO paymasters when Seif Al-Islam escaped from his captors and derided the NTC and NATO in public. Again this is not a foolish policy on the part of Seif Al-Islam under the circumstances. Gaddafi can only hope that his luck holds. Of course it is conceivable that the Brother Leader has been too sanguine and that his regime may again encounter choppy waters. The most fascinating aspect of Gaddafi's 42-year-old rule has been largely unexamined. Neither NATO nor the NTC can explain the conundrum. How did he hold on tenaciously to power when he was clearly losing his touch with his people? Oil-rich Libya under Gaddafi had a public debt of only three per cent of its gross domestic product. Egypt's in sharp contrast stands at a staggering 80 per cent under ex-president Hosni Mubarak. The cumulative effect of the survival and stunt-like escapades and adventures of Gaddafi and his sons will cause nauseating embarrassment to both NATO and the NTC, if not lasting damage. Painted in this light, Gaddafi, looks wise to have adopted the tactic of fighting to the bitter end. If he goes down as a martyr the crusade of his followers will continue unabated. He will not give the NTC power without accountability, which is precisely what the Benghazi-based coalition of contradictory factions, ideological movements and interest groups claim to be fighting for. Red faces are a small price to pay for the struggle for true democracy and radical political reform in Libya. This is the time to strengthen the Arab awakening. And, a fair trial for Gaddafi whether by his own people or by the International Criminal Court (ICC) based in The Hague, Netherlands, must be assured. He should be treated with scrupulous fairness as the ICC investigates his undoubted complicity in crimes committed by his forces and hangers-on. The question is to what degree did he err. Unbalanced and irresponsible political brinkmanship will be unacceptable to the Libyan people and the international community at this historical juncture. There are two sides to prevent such an outcome. A more durable underpinning to the nascent Libyan democracy must be found and scrupulously adhered to. The international community, NATO and the NTC cannot wish away Gaddafi and his antics. Rather they must adopt a more reconciliatory approach. He failed to seize back the initiative even though he tried hard with his last few desperate speeches to exhort his people to rise up against the crusaders and Western imperialists. He failed, too, to hold his own forces accountable for their actions. To the West he was a bogeyman. However, to millions of Africans in particular and Third World patriots Gaddafi was a symbol of defiance. He was the champion of the underdog and he had the wealth to fuel his endless causes. Yet, for all its oil wealth, Libya is a country that lacks the basic structures of civil society. Many Libyans deeply resented what they deemed was Gaddafi's arbitrarily fashion in which he disbursed the country's oil revenues to revolutionary causes around the globe and especially in Africa. They saw African leaders as parasites who curried favour with Gaddafi in order to pilfer Libya's money. They blamed Gaddafi for such folly. Yet the Brother Leader stuck to his guns and persevered with his magnanimity. Gaddafi has clung on to power. His people, or at least a large segment of them, did not understand the underlying reasons for his Pan-Africanism, his Third Worldism and his anti-imperialism. A left-leaning populist in power since 1969, he began to flirt with the West in the past decade that cost him dearly in the end because the very newfound friends he courted dumped him. They did not take him seriously. They couldn't take his rhetoric, bombastic and flamboyant styles seriously either. As Al-Ahram Weekly goes to press, Gaddafi has refused to concede defeat. Through discreet diplomacy, the Brother Leader is trying to secure safe passage to some unknown African destination. Gaddafi, like Saddam Hussein, is a "great bad man" in the eyes of many of his detractors. However, the Brother Leader is not indispensable. And, both his friends and foes understand exactly why. This week several Arab states, including Egypt, officially recognised the NTC as the sole representative of the Libyan people and dispensed with the charade of pretending to pay homage to the Gaddafi regime. There was no love lost between Libya and most of the member states of the League of Arab States. Gaddafi's relations with the African Union have always been more affable. Africa had traditionally been more sympathetic to the anti-imperialistic tirades of the "mad dog" as former United States President Ronald Reagan derisively called Gaddafi. Western leaders regarded the Brother Leader as the culpable maverick of the international community for four decades ever since he nationalised the oil companies and Western economic interests in Libya in the 1970s. Reagan bombarded Tripoli and raised Gaddafi's residence to the ground. The Brother Leader retaliated by arming "terrorist" organisations as far afield as FARC in Columbia to the IRA of Ireland and blasted discotheques in Berlin and his agents murdered British policewoman Yvonne Fletcher in front of the Libyan Embassy in London. However, it was the Lockerbie affair that really unleashed the full wrath of the West and led to an economic embargo that crippled the country. However, Gaddafi was in the past five years regarded as something of a stabilising force in Africa and the Mediterranean region. The Western leaders pretended to see Gaddafi in a new light and he half-wittedly fell for their trickery and chicanery. They promised him the earth and he gave them his land's high-grade oil in return. It was a dangerous precedent and a grave mistake. The latest NATO aggression on Libya, however, was the last in a long list of Western betrayal of gullible Arab leaders that fancied themselves the equals of their counterparts among the Western powers. This was Gaddafi's faux pas. Events are conforming to this narrative. This is not only destabilising for neighbouring African states -- North African and Sub-Saharan. NATO knocked down Gaddafi's airforce and that was crucial in the advances of the NTC Liberation Army and their closing in on Tripoli. The NTC leadership cautioned against the policy of vengeance and retribution. Mob justice among the less restrained cadres of the NTC's rank and file who have adopted a let's-string-them-up-mentality rule the roost. Images of fighters pausing over bodies twitching spasmodically and the stomping of the posters of the Brother Leader by agitated youngsters of the NTC's Liberation Army was reminiscent of the fall of Baghdad. Leaning nonchalantly on their weapons the over-zealous youth were overcome with emotion, their brethren and comrades-in-arms dead or dying. The preponderance of firepower will not determine the winner in Libya's battle of wills. The AU roadmap remains the premises on which the UN international resolution 1973 is based. Turkey is chairing the international contact group on Libya and is currently working closely with the AU on resolving the Libyan political and military impasse. Many African nations are yet to accede that the fight over power in Libya is not yet over. The AU insists on the principle of African solutions to African problems. The West would do well to permit African nations to take the lead on the post-Gaddafi Libyan question. The West and the NTC are both trying to sideline the AU overtures and mediation efforts to no avail. This political juggling will come to naught. Avoid unnecessary bloodshed the Africans, led by South Africa, say. South Africa has officially dispelled any rumours that Gaddafi has any intentions of seeking political asylum in the country or in neighbouring states such as Zimbabwe and Angola. All this begs the question: why is Gaddafi's legacy so pervasive in Africa south of the Sahara? It is because he defended African unity as no other Arab leader did with the notable exception of the late Egyptian president Gamal Abdel-Nasser. Even so, this exceptional unanimity is to be commended, it is unlikely to be enough. The NTC isn't in the least interested. The NTC need not rush out specific policy positions on Pan-Africanism and Pan-Arabism. If anything the post-Gaddafi Libya seems more politically and economically oriented towards the West and especially energy-starved European nations across the Mediterranean. The NTC is obliged instead to stress the need for national unity. If the NTC has no answer to that now, it must at least avoid being pushed into a position of irrelevance. Their actions so far have not helped to unify the tribes of Libya, especially those of the southern part of the country with close kith and kin affiliations with African countries further afield south of the Sahara. But given the painstaking mediation by African countries that preceded the NTC's Liberation Army's advances in Tripoli, its leadership in Benghazi must learn something from Gaddafi's pro-African position. It will be a pity if post-Gaddafi Libya decides to dump Africa altogether. It had all gone off very well for the NTC, but they are still under pressure to prove themselves as the redeemers of modern Libya. Bravado and contempt for his adversaries did not particularly serve Gaddafi well in the past six months. That, however, is a hardship he is prepared to endure with the utmost stoicism. There was a tendency to regard the Gaddafi forces as generic. But they are not. There is a clique of devoted followers who have benefited tremendously from Gaddafi's largesse. Abdel-Hakim Belhaj, the NTC commander-in-chief in Tripoli, conceded that there are pockets of resistance in Tripoli. There is still a fear of snipers and sleeper cells in Tripoli and other Libyan cities. Abdallah Al-Sennoussi, Libya's government intelligence chief and Gaddafi's brother-in-law, had his house raised to the ground by NATO bombers and it is said he lost at least a son. Gaddafi and his sons are adamantly as defiant as ever. The Brother Leader's latest contumacious address to the nation was as scornful as ever of the "traitors, the rats" of the NTC. Not to be outdone, Seif Al-Islam's speech was just as cocksure. Gaddafi's tone was belligerent. His speech was almost as unconvincing as that of his son's. Moussa Ibrahim, the Libyan government spokesman, was no less heartfelt. He conceded, though, that Gaddafi is prepared to negotiate with the NTC. He stressed, though, that NATO provided the rebels with weapons, air cover, logistics, and funds, political support and intelligence. It is as if the monster had heard them and stirred in his lair. "Tripoli is well protected," he declared. In the midst of so much mayhem and madness who believes what anymore. The international community's eyes are bickering from the sidelines.
