A Gallup poll has revealed that Egyptians are feeling more positive about the future and seeking a democratic government informed by religious values, writes Gihan Shahine While Egypt's 25 January Revolution, which put an end to three decades of the Mubarak regime, may not yet have improved the quality of life of many people, according to a recent poll conducted by the Gallup Abu Dhabi Research Centre many Egyptians are now more confident about their country's future. More and more people are also enthusiastic about participating in politics despite concerns about a lack of jobs and a surge in insecurity. The poll attempts to chronicle the beginnings of the country's journey towards democracy and the building of a democratic society on the ruins of a despotic regime. Entitled "From Tahrir to Transition: Egyptians on their Assets and Challenges and What their Leaders should do about It," the survey is based on a nationally representative and face- to-face poll of approximately 1,000 respondents in Egypt aged 15 years and older between late March and early April 2011. The results of the poll, released simultaneously in Cairo and Washington on Sunday, show that one of the assets that the country's leaders can rely on in building the new Egypt is the Egyptian people's expectations of a brighter political and economic future, one for which they are prepared to work. While many respondents said that they had a bleak view of the present, most saw the future as being much brighter. Nine out of 10 of those surveyed said they expected free and fair polling to take place in future elections, the same proportion saying that they intended to vote. Such findings mark a major change since 2010, when less than 30 per cent of respondents in another poll said that they had confidence in the country's elections, with less than one quarter of eligible voters participating in them during Mubarak's rule. The current atmosphere of economic uncertainty does not seem to be denting public optimism either. "Egyptians are three times as likely a month and a half after Mubarak's resignation to say they believe the country's economy is getting better (46 per cent) than they were in the fall of 2010 (15 per cent)," the poll found. More people now say that they believe in the value of hard work as a way of improving their lives (93 per cent, as against 81 per cent in late 2010). The percentage of respondents saying that they wanted to emigrate has dropped to half. The Gallup survey also attempts to find answers to one of the most ticklish questions facing analysts of the Egyptian Revolution, being whether or not the country is poised to fall under Islamist rule. Fears that Islamist parties may dominate the country's next government and that Egypt, whose population is largely religious, may become an Islamic state have reached unprecedented levels in Egypt and abroad over recent weeks. However, such fears may prove groundless if Gallup's results are anything to go by. According to the survey, the majority of the Egyptian nation "desires a democracy informed by religious values, not a theocracy," the report's authors write. While 96 per cent of Egyptians believe that religion is important and 92 per cent say they have confidence in religious institutions, most respondents said that they believed that religious leaders should have an only advisory role and not have authority for deciding the nation's laws. Respondents "envision a representative government where religious principles guide the democratic process," the report said. Egyptians expressed "little interest in recreating their country in the image of Iran, as has been the fear among some Western commentators." Less than one per cent of those questioned considered Iran to be a political model for Egypt. The poll's results also make it clear that although some Egyptians are likely to voice their support for the Muslim Brotherhood in the political circumstances facing the country after Mubarak's resignation, the level of this support does not exceed 15 per cent of the population -- not much higher than that of the former ruling National Democratic Party at 10 per cent. Although some may consider this to be an underestimation of the influence of the Brotherhood, which is widely expected to gain a strong showing in the forthcoming parliamentary elections and whose support nationwide is estimated at some 25 to 30 per cent of the population, the fact that the Gallup poll was conducted on a sample of younger people aged 15 and above may explain the low rate of support for Egypt's best- organised political group. Commentators agree that the vacuum in the country's political leadership following the ousting of the Mubarak regime is a major challenge during the transitional period, with Gallup finding that no political party has the support of more than 15 per cent of the population, the Wafd Party scoring nine per cent, for example, and the Wassat Party five. The absence of strong leadership at a time when the country is plagued by economic, social and political problems constitutes a major challenge that needs to be immediately addressed, the report's authors say. According to Gallup, the majority of Egyptians are not satisfied with the worsening economic conditions, the lack of jobs and affordable housing, and the burgeoning perception of insecurity. Sectarian rifts and a mood of intolerance have also been concerns, though here again the Gallup poll may provide a more positive outlook. According to the Gallup report, "the violence, including a sectarian street fight in May 2011 that left six Muslims and six Christians dead near the Church of St Mina in Cairo, may reflect the criminal actions of a few, as opposed to evidence of a generally intolerant society." The poll found Egyptians to be the second most tolerant of all Middle East and North African populations, particularly on matters of religious diversity. Whereas two-thirds of Egyptians say that they would have no objection if someone of another faith moved in next door to them, second only to the Lebanese in the region, 78 per cent of Egyptians are at least tolerant of, if not fully integrated with, people of other faiths. Meanwhile, Egyptians were found to be "the most likely people of any country in the world to say that the targeting and killing of civilians is never justified (97 per cent)," write the report's authors. The Egyptian people's faith in peaceful means as a way of correcting injustices rose even higher after the Revolution, the report noted. It is thus no wonder that Egyptians are now enjoying perhaps equal or more favourable approval ratings in the United States than Israel or Syria. An April survey conducted by the US Program on International Policy Attitudes revealed that 60 per cent of the American public had a favourable opinion of Egypt, with 70 per cent saying the same about Egyptian people. "This is comparable to the percentage of Americans who said they had a favourable opinion of Israel (69 per cent), and much higher than those who said the same about Syria (32 per cent)," according to Gallup. On the other side, however, two thirds of Egyptians say that they do not trust the US to be serious about encouraging democracy in the region, and US popularity remains at or below 20 per cent of the population. Meanwhile, 68 per cent of Egyptians think the US will try to exert direct influence over Egypt's political future, and most Egyptians are opposed to US aid to political groups in the country. However, there is a window for the US to regain its popularity in Egypt as a major strategic ally, since according to Gallup most Egyptians say their opinion of the US would significantly improve if it pressured Israel to halt settlement expansion in the Occupied Territories. The poll found that "no international issue is more urgent for Egypt than resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict." For the US to secure a sustainable relationship with the new Egypt, it will need to exert more effort in that direction, Gallup advising that "the most important thing the US can do to support Egypt in its transition to democracy is to protect its ally's political independence by standing for principles, not political parties or people." Reconsidering plans to fund Egyptian civil society and avoiding rhetoric like "establishing a secular government," which might be interpreted as being anti-religion, may also help the US to regain trust. Singling out minority groups for extra protection could also backfire, the survey warns. In its report, Gallup also provides a set of recommendations for Egypt's leaders, who need to deliver on the people's expectations of free and fair elections. Economic growth should go in parallel with political reform, and the process of business development should be simplified and streamlined to help generate jobs, the report says.
