The US and Saudi Arabia hold the cards that will determine the future of Yemen's president, writes Nasser Arrabyee Four scenarios are possible in Yemen after wounded President Ali Abdullah Saleh left the country to seek treatment in Saudi Arabia, and the suspended, US-backed and Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) deal for peaceful and orderly transition, is key to the two best. The worst scenarios involve Saleh pursuing his own plans. If Saudi and American officials, now the main players, are truly eager to resolve the crisis they must first succeed in convincing Saleh to announce that he is stepping down from his hospital bed in Saudi Arabia in accordance with the GCC deal and whatever slight modifications he insists on. That would be the best outcome. The second best scenario is that Saleh recovers and returns to Yemen within two weeks, more or less fully recovered, as Yemeni and Saudi officials expected when Saleh agreed to be treated in the neighbouring kingdom. Once in Sanaa, Saleh should announce a peaceful, orderly and constitutional transition from his palace in the presence of opposition leaders, as he demanded when he first backed the GCC deal on 22 May before reneging on the agreement. The third scenario involves Saleh returning and using his skills in manoeuvering to exploit the anger a lot of Yemenis feel over the missile attack that targeted him and his top aides while praying in the mosque inside his palace on 3 June. This scenario will only fuel the already increasing violence. The worst scenario involves more of the same. If Saleh returns intent on revenge it will lead to an all out civil war. And if the opposition takes power by force, ignoring the millions of people who still support Saleh and his party for whatever reasons, it will be the end of Yemen in its present fragile state. Taking power by force is not easy as long as Saleh's sons, nephews and brothers are leading the majority of the army and all the security agencies. Saudi and American leaders, who still insist on peaceful and orderly transfer of power from Saleh to his deputy Abd Rabu Mansour Hadi, are working day and night to ensure the transition as soon as possible. Saudi King Abdullah Bin Abdel-Aziz has already sponsored a ceasefire between Saleh's security forces and the armed tribesmen of the opposition Al-Ahmar family. The most important tribal figure in this family is Hamid Al-Ahmar, the politically ambitious Islamist billionaire accused of orchestrating and funding the anti-Saleh protests. Hamid denies the charges. The young people who began their peaceful protests months ago did so without any prompting from him. Nor were they inspired by tribal affiliations. They took their cue from the youth movements of Tunisia and Egypt. Hamid is also accused of being behind the missile attack on Saleh's palace last Friday. Whoever was responsible for this attack, there is no doubt it was inspired by the frustration tribal forces feel in the face of Saleh's desperate gamble to stay in power despite the obvious harm his ambitions have done to Yemeni society. Gerald Feierstien, the US ambassador in Sanaa, is seen by many observers as the main player in the current crisis. He has already held meetings with political parties and with opposition tribal and military figures. Either the US diplomat is out of his depth, unable to bring the parties to a compromise that will lead to peaceful and orderly transition of power, or he is playing a very risky game. "It's really very complicated task," said a US spokesman who stressed that American efforts are focussed on convincing Saleh to transfer power to his deputy according to the Yemeni constitution while still in Saudi Arabia. The spokesman did, however, concede that "some officials say it's wrong to transfer the power before Saleh returns". Since midnight Saturday Vice President Abd Rabu Mansour Hadi has been acting as president and supreme commander of the armed forces in line with the country's constitution. The opposition, though, question whether Hadi can exercise full presidential powers as long as Saleh's relatives are leading the army and security forces. The Islamist-dominated opposition coalition, which also includes socialist and Nasserite (Arab-pan nationalist) elements, said on Tuesday, following meetings with the US and European ambassadors, that they would support Hadi only if all powers are transferred to him, threatening to escalate the crisis and form a transitional council should Saleh refuse. "Saleh should have issued a decree, not oral instructions, transferring all his powers to his deputy before he went to Saudi," says Naif Al-Kanis, a leading member of the opposition coalition. "Saleh still has the option to avoid more bloodshed by announcing he is stepping down," says Ali Al-Amrani, an MP who resigned from the ruling party. MP Abdel-Muez Dabwan, from the Islamist party, insists the problem remains a political and constitutional one. "The security and military commanders who receive direct instructions from Saleh are the most important hurdles to any peaceful transition," Dabwan says. The young protesters, who celebrated after Saleh was injured and left to Saudi Arabia, reject power being transferred to Hadi on the grounds that he is part of the regime. Although the majority of these young protesters belong to the opposition coalition, particularly the Islamist party Islah, they insist any constitutional transfer of power is meaningless in the light of what they call "revolutionary legitimacy". Clearly, if a deal is not soon reached the country will slide into a civil war, offering a golden opportunity to Al-Qaeda which has already started to declare Islamic emirates in some southern provinces. About 30 Al-Qaeda fighters and 10 soldiers were killed on Tuesday in fierce battles around the city of Zinjubar in the southern province of Abyan, declared as Islamic emirate late last month. The army is determined to retake the city, according to military officials. The contrast between Western dithering over Yemen and its enthusiasm for overthrowing the beleaguered Libyan leader could not be more stark. The obvious question arises: why, when in Libya the West has so enthusiastically backed the opposition, convincing dozens of Libyan officials to abandon Muammar Gaddafi, do the US and Saudi Arabia continue to coddle Saleh, a figure no less reprehensible, with the result that Yemen disintegrates? Would they let a wounded Gaddafi return to Tripoli after treatment in a Parisian hospital? If Saleh is not "encouraged" to abandon power in the next few days but is instead allowed to return to Sanaa, it will show that US-Saudi plans for Yemen do not have the interests of Yemenis at heart but are part of a much more ambitious regional strategy.
