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Finding a way
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 24 - 10 - 2002

A road map to stability and security in the region is not yet at hand, writes Nevine Khalil
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While the US and Britain squabbled with other members of the Security Council and international community about a new resolution automatically sanctioning military action against Iraq if it does not cooperate with UN weapons inspectors, in Cairo more attention was being given to the dismal state of affairs in the Palestinian territories. Hosting several world leaders and American envoys this week, Egypt was encouraged that the diplomatic Quartet was brainstorming on a concrete road map meant to end the conflict between the Palestinians and Israelis within three years. As for the matter of an attack on Iraq, Egypt continued to emphasise that the world must stand unanimous under the umbrella of the UN.
During their meeting on 16 October, President Hosni Mubarak and his French counterpart Jacques Chirac saw eye-to-eye on all issues regarding tensions in the Middle East. France's position on Iraq is that the UN Security Council resolution dealing with the return of weapons inspectors is sufficient for the time being. If the inspectors find that their job is being hindered by the Iraqi authorities, France says it would then seek a second Security Council resolution sanctioning military action against Iraq. "The Council should have the freedom to take a decision when the time comes," said Chirac. "This region does not need a new war." Standing by his side at a joint news conference, Mubarak agreed that all options must be pursued before a decision is taken to go to war against Iraq, "in order for public opinion to be convinced that there was no other choice".
But the Americans want a resolution which automatically sanctions strikes if Baghdad is uncooperative with weapons inspectors -- without the need for further deliberations in the Security Council, or a new resolution. General Tommy Franks, who directs US military operations across the Middle East and Central Asia -- and who would thus lead any attack on Iraq -- was in Cairo on Tuesday for talks with Mubarak. Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Franks said the leaders he met on his six-nation tour (which also included Turkey, Jordan, Yemen, Pakistan and Afghanistan) recognised that war was a possibility. He said that "it seems to me that all these nations are being very thoughtful in consultations and in discussions, because we all recognise the possibility of military operations." But he would not characterise any one nation as being "enthusiastic or not" about providing the United States a staging point for strikes on Iraq.
Arab countries oppose a unilateral strike by the US and Britain, and would only support UN-led action against Baghdad. In an attempt to allay concern that war is at the Middle East's doorstep, US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs William Burns said on Saturday that "war is not imminent [but], it's not inevitable." Burns was talking to reporters in Cairo after meeting with Mubarak as part of a 12- nation tour. Burns said that Washington wants to work with the UN Security Council "to the maximum extent possible" in disarming Iraq, and that Baghdad must be in full compliance. "The bottom line is that the international community must see Iraqi compliance with its obligations," he noted.
The next day, Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher said that any military attack against Iraq would not only destabilise the region, but "will only confirm the prevailing feeling that there is a premeditation to direct attacks against Arabs and Muslims, especially in light of continued Israeli aggression".
Meanwhile, Burns denied that the standoff with Iraq was overshadowing US interest and efforts in the peace process, saying that his country was "absolutely committed to doing everything that we can on the Palestinian issue and on the broader Arab-Israeli issue. We recognise its significance, and we are determined to do everything we can, particularly in this period, where there's a real sense of urgency."
Burns said that Washington was determined "to realise the vision of two states" for Palestinians and Israelis, and that the diplomatic Quartet (which consists of the US, the EU, Russia and the UN) are trying to develop the elements of "a concrete road map" to work with in the coming three years. He stressed that both sides have obligations if progress is to be made in stabilising the situation, and "renew[ing] hope." With Mubarak, Burns discussed the proposed road map, and said that the US will "lean heavily on the critical role that Egypt plays in this region" to bring about stability.
Nonetheless, Egyptian officials declined to offer an assessment of the road map, sufficing to say that they conveyed their observations and remarks on the proposals to the US envoy. "The road map proposed by the US requires a large amount of scrutiny into the issues it contains," Maher said on Sunday, while attending the Francophone summit in Beirut. The most important element in the paper, according to Egyptian officials, is that it should be balanced in terms of the demands it places upon the Palestinians and Israelis, and that each side should be implementing their obligations in parallel. "It is inconceivable to place demands upon the Palestinians to implement all of their obligations and then turn to the Israelis to see whether or not they will implement [their obligations]," Maher noted.
Burns' tour, which began in Egypt, came at the heels of a Quartet meeting in Paris on Friday, where the parties discussed how to bring to life the Quartet's three-phase approach -- announced last month -- which would result in the creation of a Palestinian state by 2005. "I think we're making good progress," said Burns. "I think there is a strong consensus emerging among the Quartet members, and we're going to continue to work intensively on that."
While in Cairo on Sunday, Italian President Carlo Ciampi said that there is a dire need to revive the peace process in order to reduce tensions in the region. Ciampi was speaking to reporters after talks with Mubarak, and added that aggression, bombing and Israeli occupation of Palestinian land must come to an end. "Negotiations must result in a Palestinian state and also guarantee the security of Israel," he said.
Earlier in the week, Chirac had described what was taking place on the ground in the Palestinian territories as "very regretful". He said that the Palestinians and Israelis are living a state of war, "and there is no military solution for two people to co-exist. There must be negotiations and a political solution".
France suggested the convening of an international conference to that end, "because peace will only come about through dialogue, not weapons," according to Chirac. Mubarak was sceptical because he believes that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon "does not listen to anyone", adding that 80 attacks were carried out against Israel during his tenure because "the violence and killing under Sharon's government is unprecedented." Mubarak also said that Palestinian President Yasser Arafat and Sharon "cannot stand each other, and their people are paying the price."
Additional reporting by Soha Abdelaty


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