Gamal Nkrumah examines how Africa south of the Sahara fared in 2002 The announcement that the United States President George W Bush had cancelled his African tour, originally scheduled for mid-January 2003, was greeted with suspicious disbelief in Africa. Bush cited the possible all out assault on Iraq as his pretext for not visiting Africa. The Cold War might be a distant memory in most African countries, but its after-effects linger on in certain places -- the Horn of Africa, Angola and southern Africa. Most African leaders, however, now look to Washington for political guidance and economic salvation. Pax Americana rules supreme in Africa. The political map of Africa has seen radical shifts and realignments in recent years. Indeed, the ruling Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), formerly a close political and military ally of the former Soviet Union and Cuba, has inched ever closer to Washington and can now be considered a key economic partner of the US in Africa. Still, pockets of resistance to US hegemony survive, not just by militant Islamists. For Africa, 2002 was a year of tragic drama and much anguish. Civil wars raged across the continent. Even as some conflicts subsided or ended -- as in Sierra Leone and Angola, fresh wars erupted -- as in Ivory Coast. In Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) peace efforts appear to have paid dividends in the form of a firm promise of peace. The silver lining on the dark clouds are unmistakable, though. With the commercial exploitation of vast reserves of oil in West and Central Africa, the continent stands poised to be a much wealthier place. Oil production is likely to increase considerably among old-timers like Angola and Nigeria. And newcomers like Chad and Sudan are opening up to greater exploration, an event which will herald a big change in global oil markets. The relative proximity of West African oil to the US is of critical importance. West Africa is expected to emerge as a major supplier of crude oil to the US -- supplying as much as 25 per cent of America's oil needs by 2015, thereby greatly reducing the superpower's dependence on Middle Eastern oil. On the downside, civil unrest, political disturbances and border disputes were much in evidence in 2002. The fault lines between Christians and Muslims, secularists and traditionalists have dramatically widened in 2002. Environmental and climatic changes resulted in erratic and poor rainfall in some parts of the continent and devastating floods in other parts. Chronic food insecurity has become endemic in the arid Horn of Africa region and southern Africa in particular. In Ivory Coast, at least three armed opposition groups now control more than two-thirds of the country, once the West African region's most vibrant and economically prosperous. The largest of the armed opposition groups, the Patriotic Movement of Ivory Coast, better known by its French acronym MPCI, described the presence of French troops on Ivorian soil as "forces of occupation". France is siding with the embattled Ivorian government of President Laurent Gbagbo. The head of the French armed forces General Henri Bentegeat recently let it be known that France is willing to keep a large contingency of legionnaires in its former colony until a lasting solution to the Ivorian political impasse is found. Buoyed by French benevolence and protection, the Ivorian government pulled out of peace talks in Togo this week. The Ivorian government delegation returned to the commercial capital Abidjan, effectively suspending talks with the MPCI. The MPCI is made up, in the main, of Ivorian soldiers who mutinied against their government on 19 September. They were joined by other disgruntled elements within the army and the mutineers captured the country's second largest city, Bouake, where Muslim labour predominates. Chief opposition leader Alassane Ouattara, a Muslim northerner, sought refuge in the French embassy and the once politically stable country now seems destined to disintegrate into tribal and sectarian strife. The 16-nation Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), redoubled their efforts to end the conflict in Ivory Coast. ECOWAS has sent a large peace-keeping force to the country and is spearheading peace efforts. Washington's influence on the African political scene has become increasingly evident, especially in the sphere of conflict resolution. The US role in ending the Ethiopian-Eritrean border conflict and its current efforts at finding a lasting solution to the Sudanese civil war cannot go unnoticed. What Washington says goes. The Sudanese peace talks that were held in Kenya under the auspices of the Inter- Governmental Authority of Development (IGAD), a seven nation regional grouping of East African countries, of which Sudan is a member, graphically illustrated Washington's diplomatic prowess. The US was the main motivational force behind the peace talks in Kenya. US oil companies are, obviously, keen on exploiting Sudan's vast oil reserves. With the collapse of international agricultural commodity prices, African countries with important mining and extraction industries have emerged as the most economically viable. South Africa, the continent's economic powerhouse, leads the way. Oil and mineral wealth remained the main engines of economic growth in Africa in 2002. The continent's economic growth rate averaged 4 per cent, faster than any other developing region. Indeed, the continent was the only region to see faster economic growth in the aftermath of the 11 September attacks on New York and Washington, bucking the subsequent global economic slowdown. On the political front, the great strides made in advancing the democratisation process were consolidated in 2002. Botswana, Ghana, Mali, Senegal and South Africa exemplify this new African democratic trend. All have serious development concerns, but they have proved that poverty and democracy are not necessarily incompatible. A country can be poor, grappling with the challenges of underdevelopment, and still enjoy free and fair elections. The problem, though, is that democracy does not necessarily alleviate the deplorable material conditions of the vast majority of Africans, who have witnessed a drop in their living standards in recent years. Additionally, poverty seems to make a country more susceptible to terrorist attacks. The attacks in Kenya on an Israeli airliner and an Israeli- owned hotel have focussed attention, once again, on the African link in the US-led war on international terrorism. East African countries like Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania, with large and vocal Muslim communities, are being pressurised by Washington to clamp down hard on their militant Islamists. Meanwhile, both African and Western governments are careful not to antagonise moderate African Muslims, who in many instances are handled with kid gloves. Western policies, in economic as well as political spheres, often complicate matters. The European Union's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is widely perceived as detrimental to Africa's interests. The US's African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is just as damaging to African economic interests. Farming subsidies in wealthy and industrialised countries amount to $322 billion a year, or equivalent to the total annual value of the African economy, and greatly undermine African efforts to boost farm exports. The spectre of famine also reared its ugly head in 2002, notably in Ethiopia, other Horn of Africa countries and southern Africa. The HIV/ AIDS pandemic sweeping across southern Africa has exacerbated the food crisis there. In southern Africa, HIV/AIDS is a chief cause of famine because entire villages have been depopulated, with the very elderly and young left alive while most able-bodied men and women are either dead or dying. Labour shortages are created by the vicious cycle of abject poverty and starvation, disease and death. Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zennawi likened his country's experiencing of periodic famines to "living through a recurring nightmare". Millions of lives are once again under threat of famine on a scale reminiscent of the devastating 1984 Ethiopian famine when an estimated one million Ethiopians perished -- literally starving to death. Additionally, Ethiopia's capacity to cope with the famine is severely hampered by its obligation to repay a crippling foreign debt, which accounts for 10 per cent of state revenue. Exports of the country's chief foreign exchange earner, coffee, are also expected to drop. In southern Africa there is a growing debate about the use of genetically modified grain to feed the hungry. The US has no qualms about the use of biotechnology to improve yields and nor do certain African countries such as South Africa and Kenya with relatively well-developed agricultural sectors. The southern African famine has also focussed attention on the unequal distribution of land in the region. Western nations, especially Britain, have been highly critical of Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe's 'land grab' policy, which encourages the indigenous black African majority population to seize white European settlers' land. Less than 4,000 white -- mainly British-descended -- farmers control 80 per cent of Zimbabwe's most fertile agricultural land. The explosive situation in Zimbabwe threatens to spill over into neighbouring southern African countries with a history of European settler colonialism. 2002 was also crucial for the New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD). NEPAD is based on a close collaboration between African countries as well as the US and Europe. NEPAD, which is a political as well as an economic institution, is under the threat of collapse because of the interference of Western powers in the domestic affairs of African countries. A case in point is Zimbabwe. Britain and other Western nations want to see Mugabe removed from office otherwise they threaten to withhold development assistance. Other touchy subjects include NEPAD's, "African Peer Review Mechanism", which encourages African governments to monitor political developments in other African countries. Many African leaders reject the "peer review" principle. Good governance, human rights and democracy are pivotal elements in the NEPAD plan. Western governments, financial and funding institutions, human-rights organisations, churches and other non-governmental organisations have become actively involved in democratic elections and the economic development process. From Sierra Leone in the west, to Kenya in the east and Zimbabwe and Malawi in the south of the continent, the West has not only passed judgment on the efficacy and fairness of presidential and parliamentary elections, but has in some instances interfered with the results. Indeed, parliamentary and presidential polls are being held across the continent even as people grow increasingly disillusioned with the results. A string of parliamentary and presidential polls have just been successfully staged in a number of African countries. However, the most serious challenge to African democracy was in the continent's most populous nation, Nigeria, with its population of 140 million. In 2002, Nigeria witnessed the intensification of the conflict between Islamist traditionalists and secular modernists -- the latter overwhelmingly Christians. The first battleground was the Muslim heartland in the northern part of the country, where 12 predominantly Muslim states, of the 36- state Nigerian Federation, promulgated and implemented Islamic Shari'a laws. There, two Muslim women were sentenced to death for adultery, although neither have been executed. Additionally, a Miss World beauty pageant due to be held in Nigeria was relocated because of outrage among the Muslim community and ensuing religious violence. Whatever happens in 2003, Nigeria's rival Muslim and Christian communities will remain at loggerheads. The Indian Ocean island nation of Madagascar is another case in point. Its elections have resulted in a political deadlock with old ethnic and racial tensions between the people of southeast Asian descent who inhabit the central highlands around the capital, Antananarivo, and people of African descent in the coastal areas around the island's ports, being inflamed. Well-funded political parties, invariably with strong Western connections, usually fare better at elections regardless of their stated political agendas or electoral promises. Not satisfied with being the mayor of Madagascar's capital, Antananarivo, Marc Ravalomanana, a tycoon turned politician, contested presidential elections and, his supporters say, won overwhelmingly. Ravalomanana was sworn in as president in May, but Dedier Ratsiraka, Madagascar's president for the past 23 years, rejected the results. Ratsiraka's coastal supporters are deeply suspicious of Ravalomanana, believing he will rob them of their patrimony in favour of his fellow highlanders. The Kenyan elections, scheduled for 27 December, will have widespread repercussions. Kenyan President Daniel Arap Moi, is stepping down after ruling the country with an iron grip for 24 years. Moi's chosen successor, Uhuru Kenyatta, son of Kenya's first president Jomo Kenyatta, will inherit many problems including the hundreds of thousands of Sudanese and Somali refugees in Kenya, and an increase in Kenyan poverty, which rose from 52 per cent in 1997 to 56 per cent in 2002. Kenyatta will also have to deal with the country's creditors and mend fences with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) if he is to survive politically. All eyes are now on Kenya. There are two big dates for 2003, one of which points forward, the other back. First, is the extraordinary African Union summit in Addis Ababa in January, which will discuss Libyan proposals for speeding up the process of African political unification and economic integration. This will be a throwback to an older era when African unity was debated, with the idea finally being watered down and eventually floundering. The birth of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) in 1963 in Addis Ababa was a big disappointment. The idea of African Unity at the birth of the now defunct OAU was subsequently aborted. The second date is in July, when the regular summit meeting of the African Union will map the road ahead. There are many policy-makers and African academics who believe that the best way for Africa to advance economically and socio-politically is by strengthening its ties of friendship and trust with the US and its European allies. Libya, spearheading the fight in Africa against this trend, has inched away from the Arab world and closer to Africa south of the Sahara. The Libyan leader, Muammar Gaddhafi, has emerged as a vociferous supporter of African Unity. Tripoli, however, has powerful foes -- both African and Western. Libya's motives in Africa have, more often than not, been regarded as suspect. Tripoli's unbridled protection of President Ange Felix Patasse, of the impoverished but strategically-located Central African Republic, sounded alarm bells in numerous African capitals. Libyan troops stationed in Bangui, the capital, were instrumental in putting down an uprising in October -- an intervention ominously reminiscent of Libya's unfortunate adventures in Chad two decades ago. That said, the Chadians and Libyans are now close, have patched up their differences and can be considered close allies. Libya is also genuinely involved in mediation and peace- making efforts across the African continent -- Somalia and Sudan included. South Africa, perhaps the single most important mediator in the continent, with its deep involvement in the Congolese and Burundian peace processes, will continue to grapple with racial inequality on the domestic front. Wealth, income and skilled employment opportunities are still monopolised by whites almost a decade after the end of apartheid.
