Israel's air raid on an alleged Palestinian Islamic Jihad camp near Damascus shifted Lebanese attention away from a prisoner exchange deal between Hizbullah and Israel. Mohalhel Fakih reports from Beirut A missile slammed into a house in the South Lebanon village of Houla early on Tuesday, killing a child and injuring his brother, hours after Israel said one of its soldiers was killed in cross-border clashes. The violence followed a warning by Hizbullah, which urged the Lebanese to brace for a possible confrontation with Israel after an Israeli air raid on an alleged Palestinian Islamic Jihad camp near Damascus on Sunday. Media reports in Lebanon confirmed that the child Ali Yassin was killed in an Israeli raid, although some security sources had been quoted as saying the missile, which landed at the border village home, was probably fired at Israel from inside Lebanon but fell short. Hizbullah had also denied involvement in gun clashes across the border that killed one Israeli soldier. Israeli soldiers on Monday fired automatic rifles across the frontier, hitting two cars but causing no injuries. Lebanese security officials said some bullets hit a house in the border village of Kfar Kila. Israeli troops also shelled the edges of the village of Kfar Shouba, inside the Lebanese border. Israel later denied opening fire on Lebanon, although a UN official confirmed that three bullets hit a water truck belonging to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). Hizbullah's warning that an escalation could be looming was accompanied by the group's condemnation of Israel's raid on Syria, which it said was a "serious violation that overstepped all the redlines and all the rules governing the conflict for nearly 30 years". In a statement issued on Monday, Hizbullah called on all Lebanese "to recognise this dangerous development and the extent of its effect on Lebanon. They should prepare to confront all possibilities with this enemy that is now led by a crazy and foolish leadership." The strike near Damascus and Monday's incidents cast a shadow on a looming prisoners' exchange deal between Hizbullah and Israel. There was also speculation on whether Hizbullah would make good on a long-standing pledge to retaliate against any Israeli attack on Lebanon or Syria, further widening the Middle East war front. "The attack against Syria is an attack against Lebanon," said the Hizbullah statement, which also pledged "total commitment in combat and destiny with Syria". However, in an exclusive interview with Al- Ahram Weekly, Timur Goksel -- who served 24 years with the United Nations peace-keeping force in South Lebanon, UNIFIL -- did not expect Hizbullah to respond and ruled out concerns that the raid on Ein Al-Saheb camp, north of Damascus, would derail a long-awaited prisoners exchange deal between Israel and Hizbullah. "The attack will not stop the deal; this deal is not affected by anything like that. It is being mediated by Germany, and is already complicated. It is pure bargaining," commented Goksel, a Beirut university lecturer, who retired this year from his post as UNIFIL spokesman. Goksel witnessed similar prisoner swap arrangements between Hizbullah and Israel during his mission on the border zone. On Monday, a day after Israel struck Syria, the Israeli daily Ha'aretz reported that no progress had been made with regard to exchange talks. It cited sources as saying that a "deal is not likely to emerge in the next few days". Israel has been expected to release resistance figures Sheikh Abdul-Karim Obeid and Hajj Mustafa Dirani, who were captured in Lebanon in the 1980s and early 1990s, along with hundreds of other Lebanese, Palestinian and Arab detainees in return for Israeli reserve Colonel Elhanan Tannenbaum and three Israeli soldiers, whom Israel believes are dead. They were snatched by Hizbullah from the Shebaa Farms border region. Israel and Hizbullah last week denied reports that negotiations had been suspended over demands that the Muslim Shi'ite group provide information on missing airman Ron Arad, whose plane was shot down over Lebanon in 1986. Hizbullah has said it does not know of his whereabouts. Israeli Defence Minister Shaul Mofaz was quoted by Ha'aretz on Monday as blaming Iran for Arad's disappearance, after Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's advisor Ra'anan Gissin on Sunday grouped Iran, Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip into what he called an "axis of terror", which he described as being the "most dangerous" in the Middle East. Iran -- which stands accused by Israel of supporting Hizbullah, Islamic Jihad, and Hamas -- has on several occasions denied holding Arad. Iran, for its part, accuses Israel of detaining two of its diplomats who went missing when the Jewish state invaded Lebanon in 1982. Although Sunday's attack on Syria might not block the ongoing exchange negotiations, developments on the ground are more worrying. Witnesses in southern Lebanon claimed early on Monday that Israeli troops along the border went on high alert, and Israeli helicopters were hovering over the occupied Shebaa Farms, the scene of several outbursts of Hizbullah- Israeli clashes. Analysts are downplaying the possibility of an escalation, however. "I don't think a major war is coming. Everybody is aware of the consequences of a big operation. Something small will not make a difference, but a major operation will create a big problem," Goksel, who witnessed successive Israeli invasions of Lebanon until its troops withdrew from the region in May 2000, told the Weekly. The former UN military official explained that while Israel had violated Syrian sovereignty, Hizbullah would not "get up and carry the Syrian flag". Syria, he thinks, will prevent the group from retaliating. "It is no secret that Syria has been known to use groups for its political ends, but I don't think [Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk] Al-Shara' was referring to Hizbullah when he said his country can 'create' its own deterrent force," Goksel argued. He was referring to Al-Shara's letter to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, in which he condemned the air strike and warned that Syria "is not incapable of creating a resistance and deterrence force to restrain" Israel. The veteran peace-keeping official stressed that Syria "has enough experience" not to be hinting at support from Hizbullah or other groups. He added that, while "some individuals in Hizbullah might be angry and would like to use the opportunity to retaliate, there is no room now for such action". In the past, Israel has raided Syrian targets inside Lebanon in retaliation for attacks by Hizbullah. In 2001, Israel attacked Syrian anti-aircraft units in Lebanon in response to Hizbullah attacks in the Shebaa Farms. There were no reports of Syrian military movement in the region, but witnesses said that Palestinians had bolstered security measures in the 12 refugee camps in Lebanon out of concern they could be targeted after Syria. They said Palestinian fighters instaled anti-aircraft positions in the northern Beddawi and Nahr Al-Barid camps. "These preparations are to counter any Israeli attack," according to Ali Osman, an Islamic Jihad official in north Lebanon. Islamic Jihad has a strong presence in northern Lebanon and according to Sultan Abu Aynan, a Fatah representative near the southern city of Tyre, the camps are expected to be attacked. Lebanese authorities do not enter the camps, which are manned by various Palestinian factions. In what seemed to be a preemptive move against any Israeli action, Lebanon lodged a complaint with the UN Security Council after Israeli warplanes violated Lebanese airspace on their way to strike the Syrian target. Eight other Israeli warplanes reportedly violated Lebanese airspace in the south and north during the raid. Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri has called on the international community to "restrain" Israel. He said its raid on Syria "threatened peace and stability" in the Middle East. Despite the heightened tension, Goksel insists a war is not on the horizon. But, he said, there was one clear Israeli message: "They are trying to get Syria to put an end to the suicide bombings; they pressured [Palestinian President Yasser] Arafat, but he couldn't."
