In an unprecedented development, Greek and Turkish Cypriots have agreed to a peace procedure that cannot collapse or grind to a halt, reports Michael Jansen from Nicosia The leaders of the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities began intensive negotiations in Nicosia this week with the aim of reunifying the island before Cyprus enters the European Union on 1 May. United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan announced the resumption of talks on 13 February following three days of wrangling over terms at UN headquarters in New York. Under strong pressure from the US and the EU, the two sides agreed to negotiate on the basis of a plan for a bicommunal federation Annan put forward in November 2002. Under the 160-page plan, a large degree of autonomy would be enjoyed by two component states linked by a power-sharing central government, the Turkish Cypriot zone would shrink from 36 to 29 per cent of the island, and Greece, Turkey and Britain would all provide security guarantees. Negotiations were halted last March when the Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash, whose breakaway state is recognised only by Turkey, rejected the plan as "unacceptable" because it does not provide for a separate, sovereign Turkish Cypriot state. Last month he reversed his stance, at the insistence of the moderate Islamist Turkish government eager to advance Turkey's own candidacy for EU membership. When they accepted Annan's invitation to restart talks, Denktash and Tassos Papadopoulos, president of the internationally recognised Republic of Cyprus and head of the Greek Cypriot community, agreed to enact only marginal changes, complete work by 22 March, and accept mediation from Greece and Turkey to settle any outstanding issues or the imposition of solutions by Annan as a final resort. He wants the text finalised by 29 March so arrangements can be made for simultaneous referenda on 22 April on both sides of the Green Line which separates the Greek and Turkish communities. Getting Papadopoulos and Denktash to return to the table was a Herculean task. Although he has accepted the Annan plan as a basis for negotiations, Papadopoulos has major reservations on its provisions. His main concern is that the federation which would replace the unitary Cyprus Republic would be even more unworkable than the island's 1960 constitution at independence which broke down three years later. Although rejecting the plan would not affect Cyprus' EU membership, Papadopoulos has accepted Annan's plan because the Greek Cypriots cannot afford to be seen as spoilers by the international community. The Greek Cypriots have the full support of Greece, which longs to see an end to the 40-year-old "Cyprus problem". The two parties contending for power in next month's elections in Greece, the socialist Pasok and the right-wing New Democracy, have come to an agreement on Cyprus policy so that it is not an election issue. Denktash had rejected the Annan plan last year due to his long- standing hostility towards the idea of reunification and shared sovereignty in a single state. He has devoted his life to the creation of a separate Turkish Cypriot state. Now 80 years old, Denktash is being forced to abandon not only his dream but also the reality of the ethnic rump state in the north, which is recognised only by Turkey and protected by 35-40,000 Turkish troops. Cyprus has been effectively divided since 1974, after a Greek-backed coup led to an invasion by Turkey. Denktash decided to cooperate with Annan for two reasons. Firstly, he has lost the support of the majority of Turkish Cypriots who demand reunification and EU membership. Since Denktash opened the gates along the Green Line last April, permitting the members of the two communities to cross and mix, thousands of Turkish Cypriots have taken out identity cards and passports issued by the much wealthier Greek Cypriot majority republic. These will allow the Turkish Cypriots into Europe. Ultimately, Denktash could find himself president of an unrecognised, Turkish-protected statelet inhabited by citizens of the neighbouring EU member. Secondly, Ankara, which also cannot afford to be blamed for obstructionism, is well aware that it could lose what could be its only chance of gaining a place in the EU club of nations if it does not cede control over northern Cyprus. Being a part of Europe has been a Turkish ambition since Ottoman times and official policy since Kemal Ataturk founded the modern state in 1923. Unfortunately, while Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul strongly favour a settlement along the lines of the Annan plan, they are being accused of betraying Turkey's interests in Cyprus by opposition politicians, seeking to defeat the ruling party in local elections at the end of next month. Although the military, the ultimate arbiter of Turkish state policy, has been silent in the run up to negotiations, the generals, who want to hang on to northern Cyprus, could still torpedo a settlement. The only reason they have permitted developments to proceed to this point is unrelenting pressure from the US and the EU. If Papadopoulos overcomes his misgivings, Erdogan imposes his will on rogue factions in Ankara as well as on a very unwilling Denktash, and events proceed according to Annan's scenario, a United Cyprus Republic will be proclaimed simultaneously in Nicosia and at UN headquarters in New York sometime between 22 April and 1 May. A great deal more than the future of this small Mediterranean island is at stake in these talks. The geography and racial composition of the expanded EU, with a population of 463 million, depends on what happens in negotiations between Cypriots, who represent only 800,000 people. If successful, Turkey could secure a date for its own EU accession negotiations to begin. If Turkey gains admission, the eastern border of the EU would reach into Asia and the EU's population would grow by 68 million. Turkey's entry would also mean that the percentage of Muslims living in the EU would jump by 15 per cent, compelling the EU to redouble its efforts to come to terms with its Muslim citizens. If Annan's bid fails, Turkey's candidacy for EU membership is likely to be put on hold indefinitely, perhaps permanently. The eastern border of the EU would rest, as it does now, on the edge of the Greek province of Eastern Thrace and would bisect Cyprus. Europe's Muslims would remain a small, fragmented and ignored minority. If Annan's gamble pays off, Cyprus could become the first country where partition, a legacy of colonial Britain's practice of divide-and-rule, has been reversed.
